Can the local heroine upset the world number one?
Since Emma Raducanu won the US Open in 2021 as a complete surprise qualifier, hopes are high in the United Kingdom that the young Brit might one day win the Wimbledon Championships. To do so, however, she will have to get past the world number one. There is not much to suggest that the 22-year-old will win when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Emma Raducanu.
So far, however, the young Brit has not put a foot wrong and celebrated two very clean 2-0 victories, dropping no more than three games in any of the four sets. The world number one had a much tougher time against Marie Bouzkova, winning 7-6, 6-4 and only taking three more games, which certainly influences our prediction for Aryna Sabalenka against Emma Raducanu.
The only meeting between the two players so far was won 2-0 by the Belarusian, although in 2024 in Indian Wells it was “only” a five-game difference at 6-3 and 7-5. We can imagine a similarly close match this time around. If the British crowd gets behind their local heroine, Emma Raducanu could even win the set. It is therefore very interesting to place a handicap of +5.5 games on the 22-year-old Brit.
Aryna Sabalenka – Statistics & current form
The 27-year-old Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka has already won three Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open in 2023 and 2024 and at the US Open in 2024. She almost added two more titles this year. However, the player from Minsk was defeated in both the final of the 2025 Australian Open and the final of the 2025 French Open. Nevertheless, she has reached the final of five of the last six Grand Slam tournaments in which she has competed in the women’s singles, including three in a row.
The only exception: The Championships. At Wimbledon, the world number one has never made it past the semifinals. Before this year’s edition of the only Grand Slam tournament played on grass, Aryna Sabalenka had eleven wins and five losses. That equates to a win rate of 69 percent – by far her weakest win rate at any Grand Slam tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka didn’t give much away on her own serve
Nevertheless, the ODDSET app has odds of just 1.28 for Aryna Sabalenka to win her next match against Emma Raducanu, making her the clear favorite going into the third round. She has not dropped a set in her first two matches. However, the 27-year-old did not have it all her own way at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.
Against Marie Bouzková (WTA 48) in the second round, for example, she won “only” 7-6, 6-4 after 97 tough minutes, with just three more games won making the difference. However, this was not down to the Belarusian’s serve. With a first serve percentage of 88%, Aryna Sabalenka allowed only one break point, which she failed to save. However, on the fast grass, the world number one rarely got into the return game and, despite 41 winners, ultimately won only 39% of her return points, which could now prove problematic against Emma Raducanu.
Emma Raducanu – Statistics & current form
22-year-old Brit Emma Raducanu made history in 2021 when, at the tender age of 19, she became the first ever qualifier to win a Grand Slam tournament in the Open Era of tennis. Particularly impressive: at the 2021 US Open, the Canadian-born player, who has lived in the United Kingdom since the age of two, did not drop a single set, including the qualifiers, and did not have to play a single tiebreak.
No wonder, then, that memories of this are coming back to life these days, as the current world number 40 has not lost a set in her first two matches at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships, dropping only three games per set. Now, however, the level is rising dramatically. This makes it all the more exciting to see whether the 22-year-old can once again play her best in front of her home crowd.
Emma Raducanu has already eliminated the 2023 overall winner
It hasn’t been a particularly remarkable year so far for the British player, who won only 16 of her 29 singles matches in the run-up to the Wimbledon Championships. Nevertheless, Aryna Sabalenka is likely to give the world number one a tough time against Emma Raducanu. After all, the 22-year-old has always felt very comfortable at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. She has won nine of her twelve singles matches on the venerable London grass.
She recorded her ninth victory on Wednesday against Marketa Vondrousová (WTA 73). Emma Raducanu put in a truly convincing performance against the Czech, who won the Wimbledon Championships in 2023. In addition to winning 68 percent of points on her first serve, her incredible 67 percent on her second serve stands out, while her 49 percent return points won is an almost surreal figure on grass – especially when you consider that it was achieved against a former Wimbledon champion. This underlines what the 22-year-old is capable of on her best days.
Aryna Sabalenka – Emma Raducanu Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1:0
The two players have only crossed paths once on the WTA Tour. On hard court, Aryna Sabalenka recorded a straight 2-0 victory over Emma Raducanu (6-3, 7-5) in the third round of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Aryna Sabalenka – Emma Raducanu Tip
The betting odds from the best bookmakers clearly favor Aryna Sabalenka against Emma Raducanu. However, the lady from Minsk has not been overly convincing on the venerable grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. The 27-year-old has her lowest win rate of all four Grand Slam tournaments at Wimbledon. So the British local heroine will definitely have a chance – especially if she plays well and is carried by the crowd, which likes to get loud in high temperatures and with strawberries and whipped cream.
We expect the 22-year-old Brit to take a few games off the world number one. We wouldn’t rule out a set win for the former US Open champion either. This makes the positive handicap for Aryna Sabalenka against Emma Raducanu an interesting bet.
