Will the first goal decide the outcome?
In two of the last three editions, Dinamo Zagreb has always qualified for the UEFA Champions League group stage. In 2025/26, however, the group stage of Europe’s premier club competition is in danger of taking place without any representatives from the country that finished third in the World Cup. HNK Rijeka, the reigning national champion, already has its back against the wall after a flattering 0-0 draw in the first leg. Ahead of the second leg between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Rijeka, betting on the more internationally experienced Bulgarians brings lower odds.
The Eagles from Rasgrad dominate Bulgarian football at will and have always focused on international competition. After a dry spell of almost ten years, they are finally hoping to make it back into the Champions League main competition. However, the road there is definitely an arduous one, especially since – should the prediction on Ludogorez Rasgrad and Rijeka pay off – an uncomfortable opponent in Ferencvaros Budapest is likely to await in the third qualifying round.
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form
Ludogorez Rasgrad is no stranger to the international stage. Year after year, the Bulgarian serial champions make their mark in European competition. In 2016/17, they last participated in the Champions League group stage, while last season the Green-Whites were represented in the Europa League group stage, where they were eliminated after eight matchdays.
In the current season, the team led by Portuguese coach Rui Mota, who has been at the helm since July, has already cleared the first hurdle in the Champions League qualifiers with Dinamo Minsk. After a 1-0 home win in the first leg, the second leg went into extra time (1-2), but the Eagles prevailed (2-2). Ahead of Wednesday evening’s second leg between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Rijeka, the odds once again suggest that the Bulgarians are favorites. On the three-way market, Bet-at-Home is offering odds of 1.95 for a win.
Will Rasgrad’s multinational offense decide the game?
In addition to the obligatory home advantage, the Green-Whites are also in good form early in the season. The start of the new league season went according to plan with two deserved wins and a goal difference of 6-0. In four of the five competitive games played under the new coach, the Eagles have not conceded a goal.
Against this backdrop, a “clean sheet” victory for the favorites can be considered in the run-up to the match between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Rijeka. For less risk-averse bettors, an alternative option is to combine the double chance 1X with under goals. This is possible with the Merkur Bets app, among others. As a new customer, you can easily take advantage of the Merkur Bets sports betting bonus. Basically, I see the Bulgarians slightly ahead, certainly also due to the experience and class of individual players, which is why I would consider it a surprise if the Croatians were to advance.
Predicted line-up for Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Bonmann – Caido Vidal, Nedyalkov, Kurtulus, Verdon, Son – Erick Marcus, Kaloc, Piotrowski – Bile – Tekpetey
Rijeka – Statistics & current form
HNK Rijeka has just had the most successful season in its history. Ahead of big names such as Dinamo Zagreb and Hajduk Split, the club from the idyllic port city not only secured the Croatian championship but also the double thanks to its cup success. Accordingly, there is great anticipation for the new season, which kicks off this weekend in the country that finished third in the World Cup. The defending champions will start with a rematch of the cup final against Slaven Belupo.
Coach Radomir Djalovic’s team is also eager to compete internationally. Participation in the Champions League would be the icing on the proverbial cake, but the club’s officials would certainly be satisfied with qualification for the group stage of the Europa League or the Conference League. To keep the dream of playing in Europe’s premier competition alive, a much-improved performance is needed in Bulgaria compared to the first leg.
Rijeka builds on last season’s strengths
There is certainly hope for a positive result on Wednesday evening at the Huvepharma Arena, given that the squad from the double-winning season has remained virtually unchanged and has even been strengthened in terms of depth. However, the impressions from the friendly matches so far have not been nearly as good. Among other things, there were defeats against Izmir and Cukaricki. It is quite possible that Djalovic’s team performed above their own capabilities in 2024/25 and are now slowly being brought back down to earth.
This is one of the reasons why I don’t consider betting on the away team between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Rijeka to be an option. Instead, it is more attractive to recommend a bet that is independent of the result. Under 2.5 after 90 minutes is a good option here. Both teams are likely to avoid taking unnecessary risks in their attacking play and will be careful not to make any careless mistakes at the back. As the away team, Rijeka will place a lot of emphasis on a solid defense, so that – similar to a week ago – high-quality chances are likely to be few and far between.
Predicted line-up for Rijeka:
Zlomislic – Devetak, Radeljic, Majstorovic, Orec – Petrovic, Jankovic, Dantas – Menalo, Fruk, Ndockyt
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Rijeka Head-to-head record
The first leg a week ago was the first and only meeting between these two clubs at European level. The teams had only six shots on goal between them in Rijeka. However, there was plenty of fighting spirit on display, with eight yellow cards and over 30 fouls. It seems unlikely that this will suddenly change in the return leg on Wednesday evening. Once again, it is therefore likely that a single goal during the match could prove decisive.
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Rijeka Tip
2016/17 was the last time Ludogorez Rasgrad competed in the Champions League group stage against Europe’s best clubs. Almost ten years later, they are aiming to make it back into the 36-team field. However, the road ahead is still long and rocky. First, they must eliminate Croatian double winners Rijeka in the second qualifying round. The odds are looking good, though, as the Bulgarian serial champions now enjoy home advantage after a 0-0 draw in the first leg, which could prove decisive in such a knockout encounter.
However, as I believe the teams are evenly matched and the aforementioned 0-0 draw last week showed that neither side’s attack is particularly potent or efficient, I expect another low-scoring game. In my Ludogorez Razgrad vs. Rijeka tip, I am therefore combining 1X with under 3.5 and getting 1.62 as the highest odds at Merkur Bets. I wouldn’t rule out extra time or a potential penalty shootout, although I think the Bulgarians have a slight advantage in terms of quality and, above all, experience going into this second leg.
