Will the Cypriots stay in the fast lane?
Last season, Legia Warsaw surprisingly made it to the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference League. However, their run came to an end against eventual winners Chelsea. In 2025/26, the reigning Polish cup winners are aiming even higher. They are hoping to qualify for the second most important continental club competition – the UEFA Europa League. Before a potential playoff match against BK Häcken or Brann Bergen, a bet on coach Edward Iordanescu’s team must first pay off in the third qualifying round between AEK Larnaca and Legia Warsaw.
However, I would be cautious about predicting the outcome of the first leg in Cyprus between AEK Larnaca and Legia Warsaw, even though the latter is the more prominent of the two clubs. After all, the yellow and greens won their two previous home games in the Europa League qualifiers 1-0 against Partizan Belgrade and 2-1 against NK Celje.
At the national level, the club from the port city also finished the 2024/25 season with only two defeats in 18 games in front of their home crowd. Across all competitions, the Cypriot cup winners last suffered a defeat in their own stadium at the beginning of January. The basis for my main bet is the double chance 1X, which covers a home win or at least a draw.
Another sensible approach would be to bet on a low-scoring encounter. On the one hand, because neither team wants to squander all their chances of advancing to the next round in the first leg. On the other hand, the Warsaw team has kept a clean sheet in four of the seven competitive games played so far this season, conceding only five goals in total.
AEK Larnaca – Legia Warsaw Head-to-head record / H2H record
This is the first time the clubs have faced each other in a competitive match. For AEK Larnaca, it is their fourth match against a Polish representative. In the previous three games – all friendlies – the Cypriots remained unbeaten (two wins, one draw).
Legia’s record against Cypriot clubs is negative, with three wins and four defeats. In the previous season, however, they managed to beat Omonia Nicosia 3-0 in the ECL league phase.
AEK Larnaca – Legia Warsaw Tip
Legia Warsaw and AEK Larnaca have already survived two qualifying rounds for the Europa League. If they now make it through the third round, this would mean a guaranteed place in the Conference League, even if they were to lose the EL playoffs. Given the importance of this clash on Tuesday evening, I don’t expect a goal fest, but rather a tactical match between two evenly matched teams.
This leads me to suggest betting on the score being level at half-time. Those who want to take even more of a risk can find even higher odds for the AEK Larnaca vs. Legia Warsaw match on a 0-0 score after 45 minutes or at least on under 0.75 in the first half. The latter option offers odds of 2.30 in the Bet365 app.
However, my main tip is that the home side will not leave the pitch as losers after 90 minutes and will thus continue their impressive home run. They have not lost a single competitive game at home since January 3, 2025.
Combining the double chance 1X with a maximum of three goals in the game, this results in attractive top odds of 1.75 in the Oddset app. I am betting five units.
