Will Sinner punish Alcaraz’s wobbles?
This duel no longer feels like a coincidence. For the third time this calendar year, a Sinner vs. Alcaraz tip is needed – for the third time, the crown on the ATP Tour is at stake. It’s not déjà vu, and there’s no sign of boredom setting in. Quite the contrary: with each encounter, the curiosity about what’s to come grows – another piece of tennis history.
The surface (hard court) in the Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction favors the South Tyrolean, as do the Sinner – Alcaraz betting odds from the new bookmakers. In the semifinals, the four-time Grand Slam champion celebrated his 24th birthday and at the same time celebrated his 200th hard court victory on the ATP Tour.
In addition, the world number one is defending his title at the Cincinnati Open. There have been few signs of weakness in his game, and Sinner has not lost a set on his way to the final. He has played two tiebreaks – both of which he won.
The journey has been less straightforward for his Spanish opponent. Alcaraz conceded at least one break in each of his four previous matches. Nevertheless, the 22-year-old has been in impressive form since the beginning of April with a remarkable record of 38 wins and two losses.
Matches between Sinner and Alcaraz are always encounters in which order and variance clash. The South Tyrolean has only dropped 22 games in the entire tournament and is the epitome of consistency. On the other side, Alcaraz lost the second set for the tenth time this calendar year in the quarterfinals against Rublev, after winning the first. The world number one will exploit weaknesses like these without mercy. Our decision at Bwin is on odds of 2.35 for a “2-0 victory for Sinner.” With the Bwin bonus, you can pocket additional credit.
Sinner – Alcaraz Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
13 The two opponents have faced each other 13 times so far. Alcaraz has celebrated eight victories, while Sinner has five wins to his name. The South Tyrolean won the last encounter in the Wimbledon final, breaking a streak of five lost matches.
Including the upcoming final, Sinner (8) and Alcaraz (9) have now reached a combined total of 17 Masters finals. The Spaniard is playing in his seventh ATP final in a row and has won his previous 16 Masters matches. However, it is also the world number two’s first Masters final on hard court since Indian Wells in 2024.
Sinner – Alcaraz Tip
Everything is set for the fourth final of the season between Sinner and Alcaraz. The two are currently dominating the tour without tiring spectators with their constant encounters. Instead, each match is preceded by anticipation for the next act, another tactical twist, or simply brutally good tennis.
In this tournament, the world number one has presented himself as the stronger player, making hardly any mistakes. For example, in the quarter-finals against Felix Auger-Aliassime, the South Tyrolean won 16 out of 20 possible points on the return of the second serve – a rate of 80 percent!
Alcaraz has not always played at this level at the Cincinnati Open 2025. In the semi-final against a visibly shaken Zverev, the 22-year-old made three double faults in a row. The five-time Grand Slam champion finished the third set of his previous quarterfinal against Rublev with 15 unforced errors. These numbers tell a logical story, leading us to a Sinner vs. Alcaraz odds of 2.35 for a “2-0 Sinner victory.”
