Playoff spectacle in Istanbul!
Fenerbahce is desperate to finally compete against Europe’s best clubs in competitive matches again. The Yellow Canaries last qualified for the UEFA Champions League group stage in 2008/09. Since then, they have failed twice in the playoffs, but mostly even earlier. In 2025/26, Jose Mourinho’s team has once again made it to the final qualifying round, but according to the most popular bookmakers, it would be a surprise if a bet on the Turks advancing in the match between Fenerbahce and Benfica Lisbon paid off.
The Istanbul club has probably drawn the toughest opponent in the Portuguese top club. The “Os Encarnados” (The Scarlet Reds) are aiming for their fifth consecutive CL appearance, reaching the round of 16 last season and only bowing out of the Club World Cup in the last 16 after extra time against eventual champions Chelsea. In terms of quality, coach Bruno Lage’s team is no weaker than their opponents, which is why – despite the home advantage – my Fenerbahce vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction leans towards the away team.
The Fenerbahce vs. Benfica Lisbon odds are also interesting for a low-scoring game. On the one hand, there is a lot at stake for both clubs, both financially and in sporting terms. On the other hand, the betting providers are leaning quite clearly towards a high-scoring encounter. Value is therefore more likely to be found in the under goals. Regardless of which approach you decide to take, NEO.bet offers you a wide selection of specific goal markets.
Fenerbahçe – Statistics & current form
Fenerbahçe has only participated in the Champions League group stage six times. It has been over 15 years since the Yellow Canaries last made an appearance in the continent’s most important club competition. Even their last playoff appearance was over ten years ago, which gives a glimpse of how much the Turkish runners-up are hoping to advance against Benfica Lisbon.
How strong is Fenerbahçe really?
Hopes were raised by the previous qualifying round, when a strong home performance against last year’s Champions League quarter-finalists Feyenoord was enough to make up for the 1-2 defeat in Rotterdam. The yellow and navy blues won 5-2 at home, once again underlining their home strength, which can logically be used as an argument when it comes to justifying a prediction for Mourinho’s team in Wednesday evening’s match between Fenerbahçe and Benfica Lisbon.
The first league weekend of the new season was far less successful. Despite having a temporary man advantage, Fener could not manage more than a goalless draw at Göztepe. Duran, En-Nesyri and Co. fell short of expectations in attack. Defensively, however, they were fairly solid, much like in the pre-season “clean sheet” victories against Lazio Rome, Al Ittihad and Uniao Leiria. That’s one of the reasons why I think it’s a good option to check the betting odds for under 2.5 goals before the match between Fenerbahçe and Benfica Lisbon.
Predicted line-up:
Egribayat – Muldur, Skirniar, Oosterwolde – Semedo, Amrabat, Fred, Brown – Szymanski – Duran, En-Nesyri
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Benfica Lisbon is a permanent fixture in the Champions League. The Portuguese side has made it through the group or league stage four times in a row. In most cases, the Scarlet Reds even made it through the competition and into the knockout stages. In general, the reigning runners-up are a big name on the international stage and naturally have their sights set on qualifying for the Champions League once again.
Even before the upcoming first leg between Fenerbahçe and Benfica Lisbon, the odds suggest that the bookmakers are also expecting the “Aguías” to advance. At Merkur Bets, for example, the odds for “Who will advance?” are 1.51.
Benfica has made a flawless start to the new season
Coach Bruno Lage’s team has gotten off to a very good start in the new season. After losing out to city rivals Sporting in both the league and cup finals last year, the team is determined to win national titles again this season. They have already done so in the Super Cup against their arch-rivals (1-0). The Champions League qualifiers against Nice were also both won, and the league opener ended with a 1-0 victory at Estrela Amadora at the weekend.
The bottom line is four competitive games and four wins. Goalkeeper Trubin has not conceded a single goal in 2025/26! This defensive strength, combined with their vast experience in important European cup games, makes the Portuguese my favorites in Istanbul. I think Lage’s team is capable of at least a draw in Kadiköy. This is not changed by the fact that Bruma, Manu Silva, Alexander Bah and Tomas Araujo are all out with injuries. The defense looks solid and up front, the Eagles have enough individual quality in Aursnes, new signing Ivanovic and top scorer Pavlidis to travel back to the southwest with a good result.
Predicted line-up:
Trubin – Dah, Silva, Otamendi, Dedic – Schjelderup, Barrenechea, Rios, Aursnes – Pavlidis, Ivanovic
Fenerbahçe – Benfica Lisbon Head-to-head record / H2H record
The two clubs have played each other six times in competitive matches so far. Benfica Lisbon won three times and Fenerbahçe twice. In 2018/19, the Portuguese side won 2-1 on aggregate in the third round of Champions League qualifying. The Portuguese side drew 1-1 in Istanbul and won 1-0 at home. Curiously, the respective runners-up also met in the preseason. Benfica came out on top again, winning 3-2. Wednesday evening’s game is unlikely to be as goal-filled as a friendly.
Fenerbahçe – Benfica Lisbon Tip
For neutral spectators, the match between Fenerbahçe and Benfica Lisbon is probably the biggest highlight of this UEFA Champions League playoff round. Two high-caliber, prominent, and ambitious clubs are vying for the last ticket to the premier class. There is a lot of money, prestige, fame, and honor at stake! The significant starting position alone therefore supports my Fenerbahçe vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction of relatively few goals in the first leg.
I also see a slight advantage for the visitors, who have not only won all four of their competitive games so far, but have also kept a clean sheet in each of them. Against Sporting and twice against Nice, “Os Encarnados” kept their clean sheet intact. With their confidence boosted and knowing that even a draw would be a good result for the second leg, I am convinced that the Fenerbahce vs. Benfica Lisbon tip on X2 & Under 3.5 at 2.26 with NEO.bet offers attractive value. I am betting four out of a possible ten units.
