Will Sandro Wagner live up to the hype?

Year after year, FCA appears in some season previews as a candidate for relegation, often accompanied by the words “Now they’re done for.” We are taking a different view in our Freiburg vs. Augsburg prediction. Around a third of all Bundesliga teams are starting the season with a new man on the sidelines – and FCA fall into this category.

Throughout the summer, the visitors’ preparations have felt like a Wagner festival. The charismatic coach is starting the new season with only a slightly changed squad. Nevertheless, the 37-year-old is expected to change the FCA’s playing philosophy and add more flair to the team’s DNA. The first signs of this transformation can be seen in the Freiburg vs. Augsburg prediction.

For Wagner, the FCA is his first head coaching job in the German top flight. His counterpart knows the feeling from last season. Julian Schuster has made a quiet transition in Breisgau and has made a promising start to Christian Streich’s legacy last year.

Fifth place in the table was a magnificent result for SCF, qualifying the home side for European competition for the third time in the last four seasons. The continuity in the work with the team and the development of the individual players are factors that make the Freiburg – Augsburg betting odds drift in favor of the home side.

Before the opening games of a new season, the tension and excitement surrounding Bundesliga clubs is often high. The first matchday is like a test of strength – and recently, the results have almost always been positive for the team from the Black Forest. The Freiburg vs. Augsburg odds from the new betting providers may also favor the hosts because they have not lost the first match of a Bundesliga season in six seasons (5W, 1D).

However, we are avoiding a 3-way bet in the first instance and are giving the Freiburg vs. Augsburg tip a touch that fits in with many of the statistics from last season. From the Merkur Bets betting shelf, we have picked out odds of 1.87 for “Under 2.5 goals.”

Freiburg vs. Augsburg prediction AI

With the exception of Bochum (16), no Bundesliga team scored fewer away goals than FCA (17) last season. Now the Fuggerstadt club are away to the fourth-best defense in terms of expected goals conceded last season (43.2 xGA). In addition, Freiburg will have to do without new signing Igor Matanovic in attack. According to the AI prediction, you will find noticeable value in a bet on “Both teams to score – No” with odds of 1.94.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

The Breisgauers have remained true to their principles. Freiburg has kept a level head in the transfer market and refrained from risky deals. The team, which finished fifth in the table last season, cannot be accused of inaction. That would have been virtually impossible given the departures.

Ritsu Doan has left the club for Frankfurt. His 18 points from last season will now have to be shared among other players, probably several. The central midfield often consists of Maximilian Eggestein and Patrick Osterhage, two intelligent players who are strong runners but tend to be at their best when defending.

Creative moments have to be created indirectly. Last season, this fell to Ritsu Dohan, but from now on it could be taken over by new signing Yuito Suzuki. SCF will probably pick up points through clever defensive work. The recipe for this comes from last season, when the Breisgauers had the fourth-best expected defense (43.2 xGA).

Age is taking its toll

Julian Schuster’s team may have to take on additional tasks from last year’s top scorer. Vincenzo Grifo was directly involved in 19 goals last season and has been a mainstay in the Black Forest side for years.

The outstanding set-piece taker is entering the new season at the age of 32. Added to this is the triple burden of the DFB Cup, Bundesliga, and Europa League. His playing time will probably be carefully managed, so more output is expected from other players.

The SCF was not the most successful team in attack last season. Freiburg created 44.8 expected goals (11th) in the previous season. We do not expect a significant improvement in this category.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

While Freiburg has started five of the previous six seasons with a win (1D), FCA has been waiting four years for a win on the first matchday (2D, 2L). Sandro Wagner and his team did manage to get through the first round of the DFB Cup with ease. Like Freiburg (2-0 vs. Lotte), the Fuggerstadt team won away from home (2-0 vs. Halle).

In terms of play, the change in the team’s structure has been clearly evident in both the test matches and the cup. Sandro Wagner is establishing recognizable patterns that should enable the team to open up play through the center in the future. However, the attack lacks the quality to ensure a much better output than last year.

The visitors’ preparations consisted of an immense number of test matches. Wagner had his team play nine games, five of which his professionals ended with a win. The 37-year-old often sent his team onto the field in a 3-4-3 formation, but opted for a 4-4-2 in the cup.

A development that takes time

Last year, FCA had the best defense in the Bundesliga in the second half of the season (18 goals conceded). The price for this achievement has often been poor performances in attack. The Fuggerstadt club has not scored more than 16 goals in the second half of the season.

Looking at the season as a whole, FCA scored 35.0 expected goals. A poor figure, only slightly better than Union Berlin (34.9 xG). It underlines the magnitude of the task facing Sandro Wagner and that the change in playing style will not necessarily lead to a flurry of goals for the visitors.

Furthermore, it remains to be seen to what extent the change in playing style can be implemented. Enrico Maaßen was once tasked with a similar challenge, but after a few games he quickly had to revert to the typical FCA style.

Freiburg – Augsburg Head-to-head record / H2H record

At this point, it becomes clear why the bookmakers favor the home team so much in the Freiburg vs. Augsburg odds. The Breisgauers are unbeaten at home against the Fuggerstädter in ten Bundesliga matches. The SCF won nine of these ten matches.

We expect a similar result to the last match. On matchday 24 of last season, the referee blew the final whistle with the score at 0-0 in the match between SCF and FCA at the Europa-Park-Stadion.

Freiburg – Augsburg Tip

The Fuggerstadt club’s approach with the signing of Sandro Wagner and his ideas of possession-based football are commendable, but changes take time. The whole of German football will be following Augsburg more closely than ever this season.

It also remains to be seen how Wagner will manage the balance between possession football and defensive play in his first job as a Bundesliga coach. Fortunately for him, he has Finn Dahmen between the posts. The goalkeeper allows the team to build up play from the back when in possession. He also excelled between the posts last year, saving the highest percentage of shots of any Bundesliga goalkeeper (77.4%).

With 6.9 goals conceded (2nd), Finn Dahmen helped his team earn many important points last season. At the other end, Noah Atubolu is in goal. The goalkeeper won the silver medal with the German U21 national team at the European Championships last summer and is also considered an outstanding shot-stopper. The abilities of the two men at the back naturally benefit our Freiburg vs. Augsburg tip of “under 2.5 goals.”