Can the Franjirrojos upset the Basques?
Following a strong finish, football minnows Rayo Vallecano managed to climb to eighth place in the final La Liga table last season, qualifying for the Conference League playoffs. With a 1-0 away win at Neman Grodno on Thursday evening, the Franjirrojos also opened the door to the league phase and followed up on their La Liga opening win at Girona (3-1).
However, on paper, there is not much to suggest that Athletic Bilbao will be able to prolong their seven-game unbeaten run in the Basque Country against Rayo Vallecano.
Los Leones (The Lions) finished fourth in the final table to qualify for the Champions League and then remarkably kept their squad together, even though superstar Nico Williams in particular was heavily courted by teams such as Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Only the top three teams, Barca, Real, and Atletico, earned more home points than the Basques in 2024/25, who nevertheless face a difficult task and had to dig deep in their 3-2 opening win against Sevilla after their 2-0 halftime lead slipped to 2-2.
However, we don’t expect Ernesto Valverde’s team to show the same lack of concentration as in their opening game this time around. It is therefore quite possible that it will be a tough affair at the Estadio San Mamés, although a point for the in-form Franjirrojos should not be ruled out. It therefore makes sense to bet on under 2.5 goals, for which odds of 1.65 are available for Athletic Bilbao against Rayo Vallecano in the Interwetten app.
The visitors from the Madrid district of Vallecas impressed last season, finishing sixth in La Liga in terms of away points and third in terms of away goals conceded (19), behind Atlético Madrid (15) and their opponents this time around, Athletic Bilbao (16).
Athletic Bilbao – Rayo Vallecano Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 25 – 12 – 11
The two teams have met 48 times in total, with Athletic Bilbao leading the head-to-head record by a clear margin with 25 wins. The Basques have lost only one of their last 13 La Liga games against Rayo Vallecano and are currently on a seven-game unbeaten run against the Franjirrojos (six wins, one draw). It was only last season that the Lions picked up all six points against the Madrid side.
Athletic Bilbao – Rayo Vallecano Tip
Basically, our prediction for Athletic Bilbao against Rayo Vallecano is in favor of the home side, but we must not ignore the fact that the Madrid side picked up the sixth-most away points in La Liga last season and conceded only 19 goals in 19 away games – the third-best record in La Liga. The Franjirrojos are also unbeaten in seven competitive games across two seasons (five wins, two draws) and have the defensive potential to pick up points in the Basque Country.
Given that two of Spain’s strongest defenses are going head-to-head here, it makes a lot of sense to avoid any entanglements in the three-way system and instead bet on a maximum of two goals being scored at the Estadio San Mamés.
For under 2.5 goals, the odds for Athletic Bilbao against Rayo Vallecano are 1.65, which we are betting on with six out of ten units at Interwetten.
