The Serbs need a win in Cyprus!
Juan Carlos Carcedo, currently head coach of Pafos FC, once got a taste of Champions League action as Unai Emery’s assistant. The 52-year-old Spaniard assisted the successful Basque coach at Paris St. Germain, Arsenal and Sevilla FC, among others. The former professional from northern Spain therefore has no shortage of experience at the highest level.
Five years after his debut as head coach of third-division Ibiza, Carcedo could write his own success story on Tuesday evening. That is, if the tip that the Cypriots will advance in the decisive playoff return leg between Pafos and Red Star Belgrade for a ticket to the premier class proves to be true. It would be the first time ever that the club, founded in 2014, would qualify for the most important club competition on the continent!
A week ago, the reigning Cypriot champions secured an excellent starting position in Serbia’s capital. Thanks to their brutal efficiency, the underdogs won 2-1 at the Marakana, which means that a draw in the second leg at home will be enough to reach the 36-team Champions League group stage.
However, the term “home” is not entirely accurate in this case, as the club, which is owned by two wealthy Russians, has to play its international home games not in its own stadium, but in the arena in Limassol. However, this is no longer seen as a significant disadvantage, especially since the light blue and whites already played their ECL matches in the city 70 kilometers away in 2024/25 and were convincing in most cases. Nevertheless, when predicting the outcome of the match between Paphos and Red Star Belgrade, it must be taken into account that the Serbian visitors naturally have more experience and, equally, more individual quality.
Although Crvena zvezda is traditionally stronger in front of its own fans, I believe that coach Vladan Milojevic’s team definitely still has a good chance of securing a ticket to the UEFA Champions League for the third time in a row. It may even help that they don’t have to manage a result, but must play for a win.
With seven wins in nine competitive games so far this season, 27 goals scored (average of 3.0) and a perfect record of three wins in three away games since the beginning of July, my priority approach ahead of the clash between Paphos and Red Star Belgrade is to bet on the “Crveno-beli” advancing.
Pafos – Red Star Belgrade Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The spectators at the first leg had no reason to complain about a lack of spectacle. Together, Red Star and Pafos FC had 40 (!) shots on goal. Nine big chances and very high xG values of 2.38 to 1.85 were the logical consequence. The fact that the Cypriots ultimately won 2-1 and the Serbian hosts only managed to score a consolation goal from a penalty converted with a header did not necessarily reflect the course of the game.
The underdogs were dangerous almost exclusively on the counterattack, but they can choose this approach again on Tuesday evening in Limassol thanks to the starting position. All in all, over goals are once again a good betting option, as is the match combo of double chance X2 with over 1.5 goals, which you can bet on at Betano at 1.65 with the Betano bonus.
Pafos – Red Star Belgrade Tip
Before the first leg, Red Star Belgrade were the clear favorites to secure one of the last seven CL tickets for the league phase. However, the first 90 minutes in the Serbian capital turned the situation on its head. Suddenly, the Cypriots are considered to have the better chances of advancing. No wonder after their 2-1 victory in the cauldron of Marakana. Although Carcedo’s team has not lost any of its five competitive games so far and has only conceded two goals, I expect an away win for the Red and Whites, who will have to be more determined and stable in defense than they were in the first leg.
The home side, who have been playing carefree until now, suddenly have something to lose, so the mental aspect of this match should not be underestimated. Value therefore lies in betting on Belgrade to win. The “To Qualify” market offers odds of 2.62. I’m betting three units.
