Can Almaty defeat the big favorites?
On Tuesday, FC Kairat Almaty and Celtic Glasgow will face each other in the second leg of the fourth round of Champions League qualifying. Nothing has been decided in this duel yet, as the two teams played out a goalless draw in Glasgow in the first leg. This came as a big surprise, as on paper the Scots are clear favorites simply because of their significantly higher squad value. Even Daizen Maeda, the superstar of the “Bhoys,” has a higher market value (€15 million) than the entire squad of the Kazakh representative (€12.45 million). As a result, the Almaty vs. Celtic Glasgow tip from German betting providers clearly favors the visiting team advancing.
In the first leg, however, Brendan Rodgers’ team had great difficulty translating their dominance on the pitch into goals. The Scottish champions created only one clear chance in the entire 90 minutes and were thus far too harmless. This came as something of a surprise, as the Scots usually perform better at home than away. This is also statistically proven, as the Bhoys won “only” 13 of their 24 away games last season. On the other hand, they lost only five away games, including against top teams such as Aston Villa and Dortmund. No wonder, then, that despite the home advantage for the Kazakhs, the Almaty vs. Celtic Glasgow prediction from the bookmakers is leaning towards the visitors.
But there is another reason why the role distribution is absolutely fine. Kairat is not as dominant at home in the domestic league as one would normally expect from top teams. With “only” 13 wins in their last 21 home league games, Rafael Urazbakhtin’s team is only on a par with the Scots’ away record.
In addition, the level of competition in the Kazakh league is naturally much lower, so the home record is even worse. In the first part of our analysis, betting on an away win seems to make perfect sense.
Almaty – Celtic Glasgow Head-to-head record
The H2H comparison between the two teams does not change this, as the first leg was the only duel between these two clubs so far. This is primarily due to the fact that the Kazakhs have never participated in the Champions League or the Europa League in their history, whereas the Scots participate regularly. Participation in the Conference League in 2021 has been the Kazakh representative’s greatest international success to date. For us, this is another reason why the Almaty vs. Celtic Glasgow betting odds are completely justified in favor of the visitors. Kairat in the premier class would be a very big surprise.
Predicted lineup Almaty:
Zarutski – Mrynskiy, Martynovich, Sorokin, Tapalov – Arad, Glazer, Gromyko, Jorginho, Ricardinho – Edmilson
Predicted Celtic Glasgow lineup:
Schmeichel – Ralston, Carter-Vickers, Scales, Tierney – Nygren, McGregor, Hatate – Forrest, Idah, Maeda
Almaty – Celtic Glasgow prediction
We have therefore clearly opted for a win for the visitors. This is primarily because Brendan Rodgers’ team is significantly better in terms of individual players. In addition, the Scots are in good form and last lost a competitive game (after 90 minutes) on April 6, 2025. Furthermore, the Scottish representatives also had a successful dress rehearsal against Livingston, and that with a B team. As if that weren’t enough, the Kazakh representative is also missing the star of the team, Dastan Satpaev, due to a yellow card suspension. So it would take a miracle for the Kazakhs to qualify for the Champions League.
If you want to refrain from betting on a win, we recommend the Almaty vs. Celtic Glasgow odds for under 2.5 goals in the game. The home side will once again sit extremely deep and focus on keeping a clean sheet. We therefore don’t expect to see much attacking intent from the home team. We therefore expect a narrow 0-1 or 0-2 win and believe that the betting odds are a little too high. Defensively, Rafael Urazbakhtin’s team is also very solid.
