Will Sandro Wagner annoy his former club?

For over ten years, FC Augsburg was not allowed to play a Saturday evening game in the Bundesliga. This long dry spell will finally come to an end this weekend when the Fuggerstadt club welcomes record champions FC Bayern Munich to their home ground. The fact that this match is attracting particular media interest is, of course, also due to Sandro Wagner, who is currently ensuring that FCA is becoming increasingly popular with his extroverted manner. But can the former national player’s match plan also have a decisive influence on the Augsburg vs. Bayern prediction?

In any case, last season’s twelfth-placed team is going into this match with plenty of confidence. After all, Wagner’s protégés celebrated a surprising 3-1 away win at SC Freiburg in their opening game, which gave a glimpse of the approach the former Nagelsmann assistant intends to pursue in his first head coaching role in the Bundesliga. However, for a prediction of another surprise coup by the home side to pay off between Augsburg and Bayern, a significant improvement in performance is still needed. The South Swabians could perhaps take a leaf out of SV Wehen-Wiesbaden’s book…

During the week, the third-division side from Hesse gave the league leaders from Munich a tough fight, which was only decided in Munich’s favor by a last-minute goal from Harry Kane. Kompanys team showed clear deficiencies, especially in defense. This makes the odds for a high-scoring Saturday evening match at the WWK Arena all the more interesting ahead of the Augsburg vs. Bayern clash.

Augsburg vs. Bayern AI prediction

Basically, the AI agrees with the bookmakers licensed in Germany. This means that FC Bayern is the clear favorite with a nearly 70% probability of winning. The xG values of the artificial intelligence, called “BETSiE,” support this assumption. Here, Munich is also clearly ahead with 2.02 to 0.71. Adding the two values together gives a total xG value of 2.73, which suggests a maximum of three goals in the game. Between Augsburg and Bayern, the AI prediction is therefore under 3.5, which is very attractively priced at 1.95 in the Interwetten app, but does not match my assessment!

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

For the first time in the past five years, FC Augsburg has started the season with three points. However, the 3-1 win in Freiburg was a bit of a fluke, as Freiburg not only had more chances than FCA, but also created the better ones. Ultimately, it was impressive efficiency in the first 45 minutes that made the difference and ensured a perfect start for Sandro Wagner.

Wagner brings the hype to Augsburg!

For the former professional, the match against FCB is a very special one. On the one hand, Wagner was born in Munich-Sendling, spent many years in Bayern’s youth academy, and later returned to Säbener Straße as an established Bundesliga player to celebrate a championship there. On the other hand, the match against the record champions is exactly the tough test that the new coach needs right now to see how far his team has actually come.

Despite the current euphoria in Augsburg, primarily triggered by Wagner, and the unquestionably increased “sexiness” of last year’s twelfth-placed team, it would be presumptuous to predict a home win between Augsburg and Bayern. The FCA defense looked too vulnerable on the first matchday. No other team allowed their opponents a higher xG value than the South Swabians, who lined up in a 3-1-4-2 formation. It can be assumed that Munich’s deluxe offense will exploit the obvious weaknesses and create many high-quality chances. Nevertheless, the Augsburg attack is also capable of a lot, so I’m leaning towards a high-scoring game.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern scraped through their DFB Cup tie in midweek. It took a 94th-minute goal from Kane to secure victory for the reigning champions against third-division Wiesbaden. The Munich team had sensationally squandered a 2-0 lead, then missed a penalty and wasted a string of chances. This performance raises questions – no doubt about it! It was also an unwanted cry for help to the management to urgently strengthen the squad before the transfer window closes!

Is Bayern’s offense masking its defensive vulnerability?

It will now be exciting to see whether coach Vincent Kompany’s team will show the form they displayed in their Bundesliga opener against RB Leipzig (6-0) on Saturday evening, or whether their unusual periods of weakness and defensive deficiencies will prevail. The fact is that Bayern have not lost in nine Bundesliga away games across two seasons and are once again considered the clear favorites. The odds for an away win are 1.38, compared to 10.50 for a home win at Bwin. At least you can get up to €100 extra on your first deposit with the Bwin bonus.

Despite the absolutely justified criticism of Munich’s lack of concentration in defense, it must also be noted that Kane, Diaz, Olise, and Co. have already scored eleven goals in three competitive games. FCB was always ahead at halftime, even leading Leipzig 3-0.

Against this backdrop, I am checking the betting odds between Augsburg and Bayern to see if the record champions will once again lay the foundation for their second three points on matchday 2 in the Bundesliga in the first 45 minutes. For the Asian handicap -1 (1st half), which guarantees cashback if the visitors lead by exactly one goal, Interwetten is offering an attractive 2.30, which is a good opportunity to take advantage of the €11 Interwetten freebet. However, it is also conceivable to bet on Olise as a goalscorer. Especially since the odds on the Frenchman scoring a goal are definitely acceptable at 2.50 compared to those on Diaz or Kane.

Augsburg – Bayern Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

FC Bayern has won 22 of the 28 Bundesliga matches against FC Augsburg to date. The Fuggerstadt team has only prevailed four times against the German league leaders in the top flight. Munich has now won five consecutive matches in this pairing. In addition, ten of 14 away games in Augsburg have been victorious. This corresponds to the best win rate for a current Bundesliga team that Bayern have played at least ten times. Also interesting: in their last five wins, the champions have scored a total of 17 goals and at least three in each match.

Augsburg – Bayern Tip

Two winning teams from the first matchday will face each other on Saturday evening at the WWK Arena. On the one hand, Augsburg started with a 3-1 win in Freiburg and, under Sandro Wagner, are playing a much more active style of football than in the previous season. The Fuggerstadt team wants to push through with the same approach of high pressing and a lot of verticality in their play against the record champions. No matter what! But that’s exactly why they’re in for a rude awakening, as the FCB attack has exposed every little gap in their opponents’ defense in their three competitive games so far and played with conviction.

However, because the defense around star newcomer Jonathan Tah has repeatedly been prone to lapses and allowed many chances for their opponents, goals on both sides cannot be ruled out. On the contrary, my Augsburg vs. Bayern tip is even aiming for a lot of goals during the game. In favor of attractive odds of 1.90, I’m going for over 1.5 (1st half) at Oddset.