Will Union Berlin suffer another heavy defeat at BVB?
Borussia Dortmund fans will fondly remember the last home game against Union Berlin. At the end of February 2025, the Black and Yellows outclassed the Iron Men 6-0, automatically handing the capital club the heaviest Bundesliga defeat in its history.
In general, FCU is a welcome guest at Signal Iduna Park. All six previous away games at Germany’s largest soccer temple have been lost from Köpenick’s perspective. On Sunday afternoon, there is also much to be said for a Dortmund vs. Union Berlin tip in favor of coach Niko Kovac’s home team.
Speaking of Niko Kovac: BVB extended their head coach’s contract until 2027 during the week, sending a clear signal to the outside world that they have complete confidence in the former Bayern and Frankfurt coach. And that’s despite the fact that the season opener last weekend ended in a 3-3 draw away to FC St. Pauli.
Kovac is now demanding a response from his team and, equally, the first three points of the still young Bundesliga season. However, when looking at the Dortmund vs. Union Berlin prediction, it must also be taken into account that the capital city team got off to a perfect start in terms of results.
The Ironers won at home against VfB Stuttgart, relying on brutal efficiency in attack. They will need to do the same again on Sunday, otherwise they could be in for a rude awakening against the Champions League participants. At least, that’s what the odds on the three-way market between Dortmund and Union Berlin suggest.
Dortmund vs. Union Berlin Prediction AI
The predicted probability of victory is a whopping 67.4%. Only FC Bayern in Augsburg and RB Leipzig at home against Heidenheim are given even better chances.
The xG values of 1.98 to 0.74 tip the scales even further in favor of the Black and Yellows, but not as significantly as expected. Given the difference of 1.24 expected goals, the Dortmund vs. Union Berlin AI prediction even points to a handicap (+1.5) in favor of the Köpenick team.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Until the sending-off of youngster Fillipo Mane, BVB’s start to the season at the Millerntor against FC St. Pauli went according to plan. However, because the resulting penalty was converted immediately afterwards and the Kiezkickers actually managed to equalize 3:3 with a long-range shot in injury time, the disappointment among the Black and Yellows was huge.
Instead of three points that seemed certain, there was immediately plenty to discuss at the start of the season. Among other things, the parents of new signing Jobe Bellingham are said to have approached sporting director Sebastian Kehl in the stands to complain about the team’s unattractive style of play and disappointing performance.
BVB is looking for its best form
Although Borussia did not exactly cover themselves in glory in Hamburg or in the first round of the DFB Cup at Hafenstraße against Rot-Weiß Essen, it would be far too early and presumptuous to criticize the status quo of last year’s fourth-placed team. Nevertheless, a warning finger must be raised. Kovac’s protégés are currently a long way from the outstanding performances they showed in the final phase of last season.
Nevertheless, there is of course hope that the Champions League participants will once again realize their home strength on Sunday and put in their first convincing performance of the new competitive season. Across seasons, BVB are unbeaten in nine Bundesliga games (7-2-0). At home, they have even won four games in a row without conceding a goal.
In terms of quality, the Westphalians are also considered to be stronger, especially since coach Kovac, whose contract was extended until 2027 during the week, has more players at his disposal again. However, it remains to be seen whether the new signings Anselmino, Chukwuemeka, and Fabio Silva will have a decisive influence on Sunday’s Dortmund vs. Union Berlin prediction.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
In the run-up to this season, Union Berlin was repeatedly touted as a potential relegation candidate in the German top flight. In fact, coach Steffen Baumgart’s team revealed some weaknesses in their preparations. The Köpenick team’s lack of punch was particularly noticeable in attack.
The Red and Whites failed to score in their last four test matches. However, all of that was obviously just a blip, because the Berliners suddenly found their scoring touch in their first competitive match in the DFB Cup. In Gütersloh (5-0) and at home against VfB Stuttgart (2-1), they scored a whopping seven (!) goals in 180 minutes of play.
Luck helped Union Berlin to their first three points
Nevertheless, this figure must be put into perspective, as Union achieved a significantly lower xG value (0.35) compared to VfB Stuttgart (1.72) in the aforementioned 2-1 home win, had only two shots on goal, did not create a single big chance, and had only 25% possession throughout the game. Instead, the top priority was to operate with long balls and get a good presence on the second balls.
However, a similar approach this weekend is likely to result in BVB pinning Union back in their own half and overwhelming them. I therefore recommend – in addition to a handicap bet on the Black and Yellows – the Dortmund vs. Union Berlin odds on the favorites winning by a maximum of five goals during the game.
Dortmund – Union Berlin Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
As mentioned in the introduction, Union Berlin has never managed to take any points away from Dortmund in the Bundesliga. In six home games for BVB, there have been six wins and 23:5 goals. At the Alte Försterei, on the other hand, Union Berlin has come out on top in four out of six cases. Overall, the home team has prevailed in ten of the twelve Bundesliga encounters between these clubs. I expect this trend to continue after Sunday and that the betting odds on the multiple national champions will pay off between Dortmund and Union Berlin.
Dortmund – Union Berlin Tip
Borussia Dortmund are the clear favorites going into Sunday afternoon’s home game against Union Berlin. The reasons for this are obvious. On the one hand, BVB already rolled over their favorite opponents from the capital 6-0 in their own stadium last season. On the other hand, Köpenick’s performance at home against Stuttgart was not particularly good, despite the flattering 2-1 win. Kovac’s team, on the other hand, was leading 3-1 until the sending-off at Millerntor and would have secured a confident opening victory if the numbers had been even.
For me, there is therefore no alternative but to bet on BVB between Dortmund and Union Berlin. In my opinion, it even makes sense to bet on a handicap victory for Borussia. A win by at least two goals is priced at 1.94 at NEO.bet.
