How many games will the defending champion concede?
Reaching the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament is a special event for most players on the tour. To put it bluntly, this experience is currently part of everyday life for the world number one, who is the clear favorite in our Jannik Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime tip.
With a win, the South Tyrolean would reach his fifth Grand Slam final in a row. This calendar year, he has already reached at least the semifinals in all four major tournaments. The defending champion’s performances so far leave little room for surprises in the Jannik Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime prediction.
The 24-year-old has only dropped one set in the entire tournament. Denis Shapovalov (1:3) did not pose a real threat, however. The clear situation in the Jannik Sinner – Auger-Aliassime betting odds becomes more understandable when we look at previous performances in detail.
Sinner has dropped only 38 games in his five matches on the way to the semifinals. The world number one dominated the all-Italian quarterfinal against Lorenzo Musetti at will, winning 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 in just under two hours of play.
A smooth victory for the South Tyrolean does not make Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime odds particularly attractive. Without wanting to question the defending champion’s clear favoritism, we have found an option that, in combination with a betting boost, is an attractive offer.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is a formidable server who has proven his resilience in pressure situations several times at the 2025 US Open. Our recommendation is therefore: “Over 0.5 tiebreaks” with odds of 1.69 at Bet365.
Jannik Sinner – Felix Auger-Aliassime Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The Canadian is still one of the very few players who has a positive record against the world number one (2:1). In the 2022 calendar year, FAA has won two Masters-level matches against the South Tyrolean (2:0, 2:1), also winning the only tiebreak between these two opponents.
However, the truth is that Sinner won the last meeting between the two this calendar year in commanding fashion (6:0, 6:2). In Cincinnati, the 24-year-old played brilliantly and gave the Canadian hardly a chance. However, during the 2025 US Open, the seven-time ATP title winner has built up his best form since 2021.
Jannik Sinner – Felix Auger-Aliassime Tip
Auger-Aliassime has reached his second Grand Slam semifinal of his career. As in 2021, the Canadian is among the top four players at the US Open. In 2022, FAA was already in the top 6 of the ATP world rankings, and his run to the semifinals currently has him ranked tenth in the Live Race.
Before the start of the 2025 US Open, Auger-Aliassime had a poor record of 1-7 against top 10 players. He was able to significantly improve this with victories over Alexander Zverev (3:1) and Alex de Minaur (3:1). Between these two successes, the 25-year-old knocked another top 15 pro, Andrey Rublev, out of the tournament.
Auger-Aliassime should not be underestimated in his current form. He has fought at least one tiebreak in four of his five matches (6 in total in the tournament) and has won the most first serve return points (114) of any player. In addition, he has hit the second-most aces in the entire tournament (69) – 22 of them in the quarterfinals against Alex de Minaur.
Sinner is the undisputed favorite after winning 26 consecutive Grand Slam hard court matches and is very likely to reach the final. However, we expect at least one tiebreak in this match, meaning at least one close set.
