Can the Italians handle the pressure?
On Monday, September 8, 2025, Israel and Italy will face off in Group I of the European World Cup qualifiers. The roles seem to be clearly defined in advance, as the home team is only ranked 75th in the FIFA world rankings, while the Italians are in eleventh place. In addition, Gennaro Gattuso has a significantly better squad at his disposal. The Italian team has a market value of €795 million, while the Israelis are valued at only €83.10 million.
The Israel vs. Italy prediction is therefore likely to be an away win. However, the Italians have already stumbled on their way to the 2026 World Cup, losing their opening game 3-0 to Norway. This was obviously a major setback for Gennaro Gattuso’s team, as the Italians were actually the favorites to win the group. After two wins against Estonia and Moldova, however, the Italian team still has it in its own hands, because if the Squadra Azzurra wins all of its upcoming games against Israel, Estonia, and Moldova, the final matchday and thus the return match against the Norwegian national team could be the decisive game.
However, the game against Israel will not be a walk in the park, as Ran Ben Shimon’s team is currently ahead of the Italians. The Israeli team has already earned nine points from its first four group games, losing only to Norway. In the two games against Estonia (2-1 & 3-1), however, the Israelis were not really convincing and lacked the expected dominance for long stretches of the 180 minutes.
For us, this is one of the reasons why we cannot ignore the Israel vs. Italy tip for a victory for the visitors. The maximum odds for an away win are therefore only 1.46. These odds can be found at VBet.
Israel – Italy Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The H2H comparison does not change this, as six of the seven duels have gone to the Italians so far. The Israelis’ only point came at the 1970 World Cup, where the two teams played out a goalless draw. However, this result is so far back in the past that it is irrelevant for the upcoming match.
The two matches in the 2024/2025 Nations League are much more relevant. The Squadra Azzura won 6-2 on aggregate and took all six points. The Israel vs. Italy betting odds therefore rightly suggest that the home team is unlikely to win. We therefore receive high odds of 7.20 for such a win.
Israel – Italy Tip
Taking all of the above facts into account, we have decided on the Israel vs. Italy tip for over 1.5 goals for Italy. There is no shortage of reasons for our decision, as the Italian national team not only has significantly better individual players, but also has a clear advantage in a direct comparison. In addition, Gennaro Gattuso’s team warmed up in the game against Estonia and scored five goals in the last half hour. It is particularly noteworthy that the Squadra Azzurra continued to play forward despite their clear lead. The team is therefore aware that goal difference could still play a major role in the battle for first place.
Alternatively, you can also add the odds for “both teams to score – yes” to your betting slip. If the Israelis want to keep their chances of qualifying for the World Cup alive, they need to get something out of the game against Italy, at least on neutral ground (Hungary). As the Italian team has looked anything but invincible in recent months, we believe the hosts are capable of scoring a consolation goal.
