Will Lauri Markkanen lead the Finns to the semifinals?
Two underdogs have unexpectedly secured the leading roles in the quarterfinals of Euro Basket 2025. Looking at the round of 16 fixtures, one would have expected a matchup between Serbia and France. Instead, two fan bases are cheering hoarsely for their national teams in the Finland vs. Georgia tip.
Lauri Markkanen has been Finland’s guiding light on the way to the quarterfinals. The NBA pro has averaged the third-most points in the tournament so far (26.0) and stood out in the surprise victory over Serbia (92-86) in the round of 16 with 29 points. Another performance of this magnitude from Markkanen would be valuable for our Finland vs. Georgia prediction.
On the other side, Georgia has already made history by qualifying for the quarterfinals. Georgia surprised everyone on the first day of group play with a win against defending champion Spain (83:69). After surviving the group stage, Aleksandar Dzikic’s team then knocked European runner-up France out of the tournament (80:70).
In our opinion, the Finland vs. Georgia betting odds are not wrong. Lauri Markkanen’s presence draws the focus of the opposing defense and creates space for his teammates. So far, the NBA pro has been finding his teammates regularly, who have taken the fourth-most three-pointers in the entire tournament on average (33.2 per game).
The Georgians have taken just under ten fewer three-pointers per game (23.7). However, their downtown percentage (33.1 percent) looks weaker in direct comparison with the co-hosts (35.2).
Finland – Georgia Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Georgia narrowly leads the head-to-head comparison with Finland (5-4). Aleksandar Dzikic’s team even won the last two encounters during the European Championship qualifying group G in the 2024 calendar year. Nevertheless, we predict an exit for the quarterfinal newcomer.
Finland can play offensively in a frenzy and move the ball quickly (22.8 assists per game). In addition, coach Lasso Tuovi’s team is excellently prepared. Against Serbia, the Finns grabbed 20 offensive rebounds, which created many second chances.
Finland – Georgia Tip
The Finnish team collected the second-most defensive rebounds of all tournament participants (245) in their six previous appearances. In addition, no team worked better on the offensive board than Tuovi’s protégés (averaging 15.5 offensive rebounds).
In addition, they work with the ball with the highest intensity, which has resulted in 8.3 steals per game. Georgia was only able to steal the ball from the ball handler 5.5 times per game, and thus scored fewer points off opponent turnovers (14.8 per game) than Finland (16.0).
Digging under the baskets has paid off for the co-hosts so far, leading to 16.2 second chance points per game – a drastic difference from the Georgians’ output in this category (11.2 per game).
We expect the better offense in this matchup to grab the ticket to the final four teams of Euro Basket 2025. So far, the Finnish team has made a stronger impression on offense.
