Will St. Pauli establish itself at the top?

Since taking office, Sandro Wagner has made it his mission to give FC Augsburg a complete makeover with the aim of making the club, often portrayed as a “gray mouse,” more attractive. But what if extravagance turns into arrogance and self-confidence turns into megalomania?

The former assistant to national coach Nagelsmann was recently confronted with precisely these accusations. His statements after the defeat to Bayern, in which he summarily placed the two clubs on the same level in terms of quality, causing many experts to shake their heads, were clearly too bold. According to the ex-professional’s self-image, one should therefore choose the Fuggerstadt club over St. Pauli when betting on the match.

From a rational point of view, however, the air is getting a little thinner for the visitors from southern Swabia, as the Kiezkickers already have four points to their name and have gained a lot of confidence in their home matches against Borussia Dortmund and HSV at the Volkspark. To make matters worse for FCA, there has never been an away win in the eight meetings between these clubs in professional football to date.

St. Pauli vs. Augsburg Prediction AI

Adding up the xG values of 1.06 and 1.02 gives a total of 2.08 goals. This is well below the under 2.5 and, according to artificial intelligence, invites you to bet on a maximum of two goals in the game. Interwetten offers 1.73 as the top odds for the St. Pauli vs. Augsburg AI prediction on under 2.5.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

With four points from two games, FC St. Pauli has had its best Bundesliga start since 1995/96. Because they remained completely unbeaten in the complicated and important home games against Dortmund (3:3) and Hamburger SV (2:0), there was satisfaction at Millerntor during the international break.

Morale is a real asset, the new signings around top striker Andreas Hountondji are making a very good impression in attack, and defensively, coach Blessin can rely on his team’s strength in one-on-one situations, as he did last year. The Hanseatic team defends passionately, cleverly, and meticulously from a compact block. Hountondji is only the third Kiezkicker to score once in each of his first two Bundesliga games for the cult club.

St. Pauli is brutally stable defensively again

Also worth noting: on the first two matchdays, no other team allowed fewer shots on goal than FC St. Pauli (13). In their second home game, the North Germans are keen to confirm the positive impressions and even establish themselves at the top with another victory. However, it will be important to improve their home record. Last season, the “Boys in Brown” were one of the weakest home teams in the Bundesliga. In 2025/26, the Millerntor is set to become a fortress.

In any case, I don’t believe that St. Pauli will suffer their first defeat of the season against FCA, so I recommend betting on the double chance 1X for the St. Pauli vs. Augsburg match. In combination with at least two goals in the game, Interwetten is offering attractive odds of 1.80.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

Three points after two match days mean an absolutely satisfactory start for FC Augsburg in terms of points. After all, they played against stronger European Cup participants in Freiburg and at home against Bayern. However, the whole truth is that the 3-1 win in Breisgau was very fortunate and was primarily due to the Sportclub’s profligacy in front of goal. The situation was similar in the home game against the record champions, in which they conceded two goals but, with an xGA value of 4.23, could also be happy not to have been completely run over.

Augsburg has been very lucky so far

The new head coach’s approach is extremely bold and sometimes seems just as naive. I therefore believe that the Fuggerstadt team is currently being viewed too favorably by the public, which does not necessarily reflect their actual performance. Those who still want to take the wild (and brutally vulnerable) approach of the South Swabians into account in their considerations will find attractive odds of 4.60 at Bet-at-Home for a home win with a goal conceded in the match between St. Pauli and Augsburg.

From a statistical point of view, however, there are also various glimmers of hope. In the 2025 calendar year, FCA had the second-most wins and the second-most points away from home behind FC Bayern. For the first time in their Bundesliga history, the Fuggerstadt team could also start the new season with two away wins in their first two away games. However, it is essential to avoid falling behind, because – apart from the two promoted teams – no other first division team is currently waiting as long to score a point after falling behind as FCA, who managed to equalize at the Millerntor at the beginning of February with a 1-1 draw.

St. Pauli – Augsburg Head-to-head record / H2H record

There have been eight competitive meetings between these two clubs this millennium. As already mentioned, not a single match has gone to the away team. Instead, the record stands at six home wins and two draws. FC St. Pauli has only been able to prevail twice. FCA, on the other hand, has four wins to its name. Last season, the Fuggerstadt club also remained unbeaten twice. There was a 1-1 draw at the Millerntor. Augsburg won 3-1 at home.

St. Pauli – Augsburg Tip

Only one point separates FC St. Pauli from FC Augsburg at the moment. However, in terms of performance, the starts of both teams must be evaluated differently. While the Kiezkickers have allowed the fewest shots on goal of any team so far, FCA ranks last in this category. Furthermore, no other club has a higher xGA value against them in the first two matchdays than the Fuggerstadt team, who were just as lucky in their 3-1 win in Augsburg as they were in their 2-3 home defeat to Bayern. It could have been two (heavy) defeats…

In any case, I was more impressed by coach Alexander Blessin’s team. In addition, there has never been an away win in this fixture in professional soccer. I therefore recommend betting on a home win between St. Pauli and Augsburg, which pays 2.25 as the top odds at Betano.