Easy win for the overwhelming favorites?
On Thursday, September 18, 2025, Sporting Lisbon and Qairat Almaty will face each other in the UEFA Champions League. The roles could hardly be more clearly defined in advance, as the home team has a market value of €434.30 million, while the Kazakhs’ squad is worth only €12.53 million.
In addition, the hosts have twelve (!) players who are worth more than the entire visiting team’s squad. So, this is a clash of two worlds. No wonder, then, that the odds for a Sporting Lisbon vs. Qairat Almaty tip clearly favor a home win. The maximum odds for a home win are only 1.10 (Bet-at-home).
The betting odds for a Portuguese win therefore have no value whatsoever. In our Sporting Lisbon vs. Qairat Almaty prediction, we are therefore looking for an alternative and taking a closer look at the two teams. We start with the home and away records of both teams, beginning with the home side.
The question now is whether the visiting team can even begin to keep up with their away record. The answer is no. Rafael Urazbakhtin’s team has won only eight of its last 19 away games, remaining winless in 58% of those matches. Internationally, however, the statistics are even worse, as the Kazakhs failed to win any of their four away games in qualifying.
These are obviously not good conditions, especially since their opponents KuPS, Olimpija Ljubljana, Slovan Bratislava, and Celtic Glasgow are far from the level of the Portuguese. For us, this is another reason why the Sporting Lisbon vs. Qairat Almaty odds on the visitors winning a point do not make sense.
Sporting Lisbon – Qairat Almaty Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
A direct comparison of the two teams does not change this, as the two teams have never met before. This is, of course, because the visiting team has qualified for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history. Previously, the Kazakhs had only been eligible to participate in the Conference League once.
The situation was usually different for the home team, because even if they didn’t make it to the Champions League, the Portuguese representative then qualified for the Europa League. The Portuguese are therefore much more experienced internationally. This is the third reason why the Sporting Lisbon vs. Qairat Almaty betting odds are so clearly in favor of a home win.
Sporting Lisbon – Qairat Almaty Tip
Taking all of the above facts into account, we have decided on a Sporting Lisbon vs. Qairat Almaty betting tip of a home win with a handicap of -2. The Portuguese representative is clearly superior in all areas.
Rui Borges’ team is individually better, is almost unstoppable in its own stadium, has significantly more international experience and has also been in better form in recent weeks. As soon as the home team takes the lead and the Kazakhs have to take a few more risks, the Portuguese will take advantage of this and seal the deal.
If the main bet is a little too risky for you, we recommend the Sporting Lisbon vs. Qairat Almaty odds for “both teams to score – no.” The Kazakh representative does not have any great ideas or opportunities in attack anyway and has recently been anything but strong away from home. As a result, Rafael Urazbakhtin’s team will focus on defense and wait for counterattacks. However, as Sporting are quite compact defensively, we expect the Portuguese to keep a clean sheet.
