Will SSC’s island curse continue?
The Champions League kicks off with a bang on the island between the Cityzens and the Italian champions! Read our preview of the top match in the premier class to find out which Manchester City vs. Napoli tip could be worthwhile in the eyes of Wettbasis.
The hosts won the competition for the first time in 2023, but failed to do so in the following two seasons, losing to Real Madrid on both occasions. The Spaniards stopped the British once in the quarterfinals and once in the playoffs for the round of 16 in the previous season. Not a good result from the home side’s point of view, especially as they only managed third place in the Premier League last season after four titles in a row.
In our opinion, the golden era of coach Pep Guardiola seems to be coming to an end, and the current performances in the national league reinforce this assessment. After four rounds of matches in the current edition of the British top flight, the Cityzens have a mixed record of two wins and two defeats. For the match between Manchester City and Napoli, the prediction is now for both sides to score.
Manchester City vs. Napoli Prediction AI
Our artificial intelligence has found value in the odds for the number of goals in the match at the Etihad. It puts the expected goals for the match at 2.38, and against this backdrop, the Manchester City vs. Napoli AI prediction is for less than three goals in the Asian handicap variant, meaning that bets would not be lost as cashback in the event of a three-goal result.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Last season’s Champions League campaign was disappointing for City. Five of their last seven games in the 2024/25 season ended in defeat for the British side (1-1-5). By way of comparison, this is exactly the same number of defeats as in their previous 61 games in the competition (43-13-5)!
The disappointing record from the home side’s perspective in the previous season was mainly due to a series of weak defensive performances in the second halves. City conceded 80 percent of the 20 goals they conceded in the last edition of the Champions League after the break! Only Dortmund (84 percent) and Leverkusen (83 percent) topped this percentage in the competition.
Haaland to lead City’s attack once again
In attack, the hosts will once again be relying on Erling Haaland. The Norwegian is just one goal away from the 50-goal mark in the Champions League, and that in only 48 appearances! Given the latter number, it is already clear that he will almost certainly set a new record for the fewest appearances to reach the 50-goal mark in the Champions League.
The current record stands at 62 games and was set by Ruud van Nistelrooij in 2007. In addition, the striker, who has scored at least 22 goals in each of the past five seasons in the Premier League and Bundesliga, is in particularly good form: during the recent international break, the former Borussia player scored five goals and provided two assists in the Norwegian national team’s relentless 11-1 victory over Moldova in the World Cup qualifiers.
He is also doing well in the Premier League with five goals after four rounds of play – the best score in the PL scoring charts. Given these figures, the odds on his next personal goal celebration are also attractive in the match between Manchester City and Napoli.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
From a statistical point of view, SSC will be approaching the match with some nervousness: in European competitions, the visitors have never won away against an English team (0-3-9)! At least coach Antonio Conte can point to a positive record in his duels with Pep Guardiola.
More than half (4) of the seven meetings between the two coaches so far have ended in victory for the Italian. What’s more, the Italian champions are in good form. Napoli won 3-1 at Fiorentina in their final warm-up game last weekend, their third victory in as many games in the new Serie A season. Only Juventus currently have a perfect record in the league.
KDB returns to his old colleagues
It is also a very special match for Kevin de Bruyne. The Belgian returns to his old stomping ground with Napoli! He wore the City jersey for no less than ten seasons, with great success. In only two of those ten seasons did KDB fail to score double digits in goals or assists in the Premier League.
The 34-year-old continues to be a goal threat at his new club. This is evident from the fact that the Belgian scored immediately in the season opener against Sassuolo and most recently against Fiorentina, albeit from the penalty spot.
On top of that, he warmed up in the Red Devils’ jersey during the recent international break, scoring three goals in the two games against Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein. In view of this and his undoubtedly high motivation on his return to the Etihad, the betting odds on him scoring again in the clash between Manchester City and Napoli are particularly attractive. You can find the corresponding odds at Betano.
Manchester City – Napoli Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The teams have already faced each other four times in the Champions League, with the last two encounters in 2017 ending in victory for the British side. Thanks to these two wins, the home team has a slightly positive record against the Italians (2-1-1). For the next meeting between Manchester City and Napoli, the odds are once again pointing towards a win for the Premier League representatives.
Manchester City – Napoli Tip
For the match between Manchester City and Napoli, the forecast is for goals at both ends. The home side have a “built-in goal guarantee” in Haaland, but they have once again been vulnerable defensively so far this season.
After four rounds of Premier League matches, they have already conceded just as many goals. The visitors’ stable early form also suggests that they will score at least one goal.
Napoli has made an excellent start to Serie A with three wins and an average of two goals per game. On top of that, important new signings such as Belgian midfield legend Kevin de Bruyne have quickly acclimatized to life on the Mediterranean.
For this reason, we do not consider the Italians, who have never won on the island, to be without a chance this time and believe they are capable of scoring at least one goal against Guardiola’s team. In our opinion, betting on both teams to score in Manchester City vs. Napoli is therefore a particularly good option.
