Will St. Pauli remain at the top of the table?
For Alexander Blessin, away games at VfB Stuttgart are always a return to his personal past, in a sense. The FC St. Pauli coach was not only born in Bad Cannstatt, but also played all seven of his Bundesliga games as a professional for the traditional Swabian club.
Blessin also knows the opposing coach, Sebastian Hoeneß, quite well. Both coaches worked in the youth department at RB Leipzig at the same time from 2014 to 2017. However, there will be no room for sentimental outbursts or favors between friends on Friday evening. Instead, there is a lot at stake for both sides at the start of the fourth matchday in the Bundesliga, which logically also has a decisive influence on the VfB Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli prediction.
For the home side, the main priority is to avoid a complete false start. They are facing their third defeat on the fourth matchday. And that’s just a few days before the Europa League opener at home against Celta Vigo on Thursday.
While the pressure situation at the club with the chest ring is correspondingly negative, the Kiezkickers have the breathtaking and exclusively positive opportunity to jump to the top of the German upper house for one night. If the prediction for Hamburg between VfB Stuttgart and St. Pauli comes true, they will temporarily overtake the record champions from Munich with ten points.
However, the most popular bookmakers are rather skeptical in this regard and are offering significantly lower odds on a home win for Friday evening’s match between VfB Stuttgart and St. Pauli. Those who still speculate on a draw or even a three-point win for the visitors will get odds of 4.00 or higher at VBET.
VfB Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli AI prediction
Even in the first few paragraphs, it is clear that I see promising value in the betting odds for a positive result for St. Pauli. Artificial intelligence takes a completely different view of the match. Based on the predicted probability of victory of 65.8%, the odds on a home win are even too low, according to “BETSiE.” Estimated xG values of 1.93 to 0.79 further underscore this assessment, leaving no doubt that the VfB Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli AI prediction is pointing to a home win.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
At VfB Stuttgart, it has become increasingly apparent in recent days and weeks that the ease of the 2023/24 runners-up season or the footballing conviction on the way to the 2025 cup triumph has somehow been lost. Certainly also due to the once again well-known departures, coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team is not necessarily acting like a Bundesliga top team at the moment. For the first time under their successful coach, the Swabians started a season with only three points after three matchdays. Twelfth place in the intermediate ranking, which is not yet particularly meaningful, is the unsatisfactory consequence.
VfB Stuttgart is struggling with an unstable defense
To make matters worse, last year’s Champions League participant simply cannot manage to maintain a lead over time. Since the beginning of February, Stuttgart have squandered 21 points after taking the lead – the highest number in Europe’s top five leagues. Five times in a row, VfB even lost after taking the lead in the Bundesliga. This was also the case last week in the 3-1 defeat at Freiburg, when they conceded their ninth and tenth goals in their fifth competitive game – including the Supercup and DFB Cup.
The overly vulnerable defense, combined with an at times sloppy offense, prompts me to highlight the betting odds on the double chance X2 more intensively before the match between VfB Stuttgart and St. Pauli. Alternatively, you can also recommend a bet on goals scored by both teams at Interwetten, especially since a corresponding bet went through in four out of five VfB games this season and you can even play them with a reduced stake risk with the Interwetten bonus.
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
For the first time in the club’s history, FC St. Pauli remained unbeaten in the first three Bundesliga matchdays. After a 3-3 draw at home against Dortmund in their opening game, the Kiezkickers first defeated city rivals HSV and then, after falling behind, finally secured all three points against Augsburg last week. Fourth place with seven points is a wonderful snapshot, but it doesn’t have to be the limit. A win away in Bad Cannstatt on Friday evening would see them temporarily top the table.
Will Hountondji shoot St. Pauli to the top of the table?
In their current form, the “Boys in Brown” have nothing to fear from any opponent. Despite a completely revamped offense and several new additions to the starting lineup, the individual cogs are meshing perfectly. In general, teamwork is a factor, as Alexander Blessin opted for the same starting lineup on all three match days.
This includes striker Andreas Hountondji, who has scored in all three games for Hamburg, setting a new club record. The 23-year-old offensive player, who moved to the Elbe from England, is a real troublemaker with his speed and coolness. If the Beninese player continues his impressive run at the MHPArena, odds of 4.10 will be offered on a Hountondji goal in the Interwetten app ahead of VfB Stuttgart’s match against St. Pauli.
VfB Stuttgart – St. Pauli Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head record could not be any clearer in favor of VfB Stuttgart. Of a total of 23 competitive games, the Swabians have won 15. Five draws and only three Pauli victories round off the overall record. However, coach Alexander Blessin’s protégés have good memories of last year’s away game in Bad Cannstatt.
Three days before Christmas Eve, the Kiezkickers won 1-0 in Stuttgart. At the beginning of May, the cup winners took revenge with a 1-0 away win in Hamburg. For the rematch between VfB Stuttgart and St. Pauli, I predict a high-scoring game with goals on both sides.
VfB Stuttgart – St. Pauli Tip
Originally, VfB Stuttgart, as cup winners and Europa League participants, naturally had very different ambitions than FC St. Pauli, for whom staying in the league would already be a huge success. Currently, however, the picture is different, as the visitors from the north have four more points to their name after three matchdays and have also made a much more solid impression so far. Against this backdrop, I believe the betting odds for a home win are far too low to offer any value.
The Blessin team is unbeaten in four BL guest appearances across all seasons, has already scored seven goals this season and has also taken all three points from Swabia in 2024/25. Also interesting: The “Boys in Brown” won all four away games in Baden-Württemberg to nil in the previous season. My VfB Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli tip is therefore aimed at the point won by the supposed outsider. I’m playing the 2.05 from VBET with four fictitious units.
