How will Mourinho play at Stamford Bridge?
Where there are no defenders, there is no defense. Enzo Maresca doesn’t have to do without defenders altogether in the Chelsea vs. Benfica Lisbon tip, but his options for the center of the back line are limited. In addition to Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana and Tosin Adarabioyo are also out for the second Champions League matchday. According to the club, Axel Disasi is not an option despite these absences.
However, the obvious storyline of the Chelsea vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction is, of course, the return of star coach Jose Mourinho to his old stomping ground. As coach of the Eagles, the 62-year-old has yet to suffer a defeat (2W, 1D). For the Portuguese, it is his first Champions League game since a 3-0 defeat with Tottenham against RB Leipzig in 2020.
Both teams started the new CL season with a defeat. The Blues lost 3-1 to Bayern Munich in Munich, while the Reds from Portugal suffered a surprising 3-2 defeat to Qarabag. That same night, Bruno Lage was dismissed, paving the way for Mourinho’s return.
Under the current circumstances, we would recommend a free bet without deposit for the Chelsea vs. Benfica Lisbon odds and not take too much risk for this matchup. The return of Jose Mourinho adds an extra dimension to the duel, and the form of the favored Londoners is also critical.
We have learned one thing above all else from the home team’s recent performances: goals, preferably from both teams, can usually be expected. Enzo Maresca’s team conceded 2.1 expected goals to the German record champions on the first matchday of the Champions League and conceded three goals – not the only time this season.
However, their own offense is always extremely dangerous and boasts individual class in many positions that few other teams on this continent can match. Our recommendation: Open the Betano app and bet on Chelsea – Benfica Lisbon betting odds of 2.00 for “Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals in the game.”
Chelsea vs. Benfica Lisbon Prediction AI
Our artificial intelligence BETSiE is less impressed by the circumstances and has identified value in the odds for a Blues victory. Translated, the reigning club world champions’ probability of winning is around 60 percent at the best betting providers. BETSiE estimates this possibility to be almost ten percentage points higher.
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Those in charge at Stamford Bridge had imagined a much smoother start to the season. Chelsea have only picked up two wins from their first six Premier League games (2D, 2L). They are already seven points behind leaders Liverpool (15 points).
We have already mentioned the injury worries in central defense, and in goal, Robert Sanchez and Filip Jörgensen are making individual mistakes in equal measure. In addition, Enzo Maresca is missing the key to tricky defensive locks until the international break: Cole Palmer. The 23-year-old is currently recovering from an ankle injury. Added to this is the injury-related absence of Liam Delap.
Despite the many absences, the individual level in the club world champions’ team is extremely high and is enough to make them favorites in the Chelsea vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction. At the same time, the Blues’ recent performances have shown that their matches can go in different directions.
A pinch of chaos
Possession football with clear structures and solutions for his players are indispensable for Enzo Maresca. At the moment, however, the 45-year-old has to reckon with several uncertainties in his team’s performances and show patience. Ahead of the Chelsea vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction, the hosts have won only one of four competitive games.
The Blues have finished their last two Premier League games with only ten players on the field. Red cards and individual errors have been a frequent occurrence recently, leading to some chaotic and unpredictable encounters.
The Londoners have recently conceded “over 1.5 goals” in four of their five competitive games. Their own offensive play has massive quality that can flash up at any second. Chelsea have scored at least one goal in their previous seven competitive games. Combined, these events have recently led to five consecutive Blues games with goals at both ends and over 2.5 goals in the game.
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
The Eagles have yet to lose a league game this season. Two draws and five wins in seven matchdays have strengthened the belief in the Portuguese capital that they can win their first national championship since 2023.
Nevertheless, a single slip-up on the first matchday in the Champions League was enough for the club’s management to sack Bruno Lage. Benfica lost 3-2 at home to underdogs Qarabag after leading 2-1. Another defeat is entirely possible.
Like the Londoners, the Lisbon club has lost each of its last three Champions League games (across seasons). In addition, the Eagles are winless in eight direct duels with English clubs (3D, 5L).
How is the defense shaping up?
How stable are the Reds in defense? Conceding two goals in the first three competitive games under Jose Mourinho doesn’t sound too bad, but it’s by no means proof of a superior defense. Especially when you look at the statistics from the last game against Gil Vicente.
In terms of expected goals (1.27:1.26 xG), both clubs were on par. In addition, Gil Vicente had more shots (10:6) and shots on goal (7:4) and created more big chances (2:1). It is quite possible that the Eagles will be overwhelmed defensively at Stamford Bridge.
Mourinho himself has not won any of his six previous away games as a coach at Stamford Bridge (2D, 4L). Benfica have been waiting for a clean sheet in 18 competitive games against an English team and have lost all of their last five meetings with the Blues.
Chelsea – Benfica Lisbon Head-to-head record / H2H record
The last meeting between the two clubs was not too long ago. Chelsea won 4-1 in the round of 16 of the Club World Cup on their way to the title. It was the third consecutive head-to-head match that met the requirements for a successful bet on “Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals.”
Chelsea – Benfica Lisbon Tip
The Londoners are rarely beaten at home. Chelsea are unbeaten in eleven Champions League home games in the group/league phase and have lost only one of their last 23 matches of this kind. We generally agree that the club world champions are the favorites.
There are question marks over a home win due to the recurring lapses in Chelsea’s defense. Enzo Maresca currently has his hands tied when it comes to choosing his central defense – further lapses in concentration cannot be ruled out when selecting the Chelsea – Benfica Lisbon odds.
Several scenarios are conceivable for this emotionally charged matchup. We expect goals from both teams, as there are several top-class players in attack. Guest striker Vangelis Pavlidis scored on the first matchday of the Champions League and has already scored five goals in seven league games in the national competition.
Many players from the Blues have already scored goals this season. Enzo Fernandez is the top scorer in the Premier League (3 goals), and three other teammates have also scored two league goals each. We expect a lot of offense in this match, which is also underlined by the Chelsea vs. Benfica betting odds, and great entertainment for the audience.
