Is the Old Lady’s form on the decline?
Gone are the spectacular games of the Old Lady, back are the low-scoring draws that cost former coach Thiago Motta his job last season. The 4-3 win against Inter Milan and the 4-4 draw against BVB were exceptions that will not be repeated in the Villarreal vs. Juventus tip.
The Old Lady has shared the points in three consecutive games, ending the matches against Dortmund (4-4) and Hellas Verona and Atalanta Bergamo (both 1-1) with a draw. The home side is in much better form ahead of our Villarreal vs. Juventus prediction.
It doesn’t always have to be a clever new idea that a coach uses to produce positive results. Marcelino relies on a classic 4-4-2 system for the Yellow Submarine, which serves its purpose thanks to excellent coordination between the team’s units and enables them to win games.
While the visitors have been waiting for a win for three competitive games (3D), Marcelino’s team has earned its status as favorites with three competitive wins in a row. For our Villarreal vs. Juventus prediction, we are taking an aggressive approach, for which a no deposit free bet is suitable.
The duel feels in part like a comparison between two schools of European pragmatism, with the hosts benefiting from the venue and being able to showcase their strengths better.
Villarreal vs. Juventus Prediction AI
The hosts are back at the highest European level after finishing fifth in the table last season. However, their recent performances there have hardly been impressive. Villarreal have scored only ten goals in their last twelve Champions League home games. BETSiE’s Villarreal vs. Juventus prediction sees value in one of the two teams failing to score.
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
A flat back four, sharp wings, and straightforward vertical attacks have been ticking like clockwork in Villarreal for weeks. Marcelino has been in charge since the end of 2023 and has used the simplest of means to promote the club back to the top of Spanish soccer.
The Yellow Submarine almost scored on the first matchday of the Champions League against reigning Europa League winners Tottenham (0-1). The Spanish representatives forced the Spurs into an uncomfortable game with few scoring chances (0.48:0.54 xG). Tottenham only managed one shot on the Villarreal goal.
The only goal of the game came from an own goal by goalkeeper Luiz Junior in the fourth minute. Less important than the result is the style of play of Marcelino’s team, which was able to limit a strong club from the island for long periods of the game.
The stadium is a factor
At home, “El Submarino Amarillo” is a real force to be reckoned with. The hosts have won every home game this season (4W). The gaps between the individual parts of the team were kept small and they switched efficiently to attack. Marcelino’s team won three of the four victories without conceding a goal!
Across the season, the Spanish representatives have even won eight home games in a row. There are recurring problems away from home, but this is rarely seen in their own arena. It is no coincidence that the hosts are currently in third place in the Spanish Primera Division, directly behind Real Madrid and Barcelona.
On the European stage, Villarreal has lost only one of its last nine home games. Although these matches have all taken place in the Europa League, they demonstrate the high level of Marcelino’s team in their own stadium and are not insignificant for the Villarreal vs. Juventus odds.
Juventus – Statistics & current form
Structurally, Juve plays a 3-4-2-1 system under Igor Tudor, which changes to a 3-2-5 when in possession of the ball. In the match against Borussia Dortmund, there were many overloads near the ball, in which Kenan Yildiz was often and gladly involved. At times, the Bianconeri opt for risky counter-pressing, which comes at a high price if it fails.
The two consecutive appearances against Inter (4-3) and Dortmund (4-4) may have painted a false picture of the Italian record champions. Tudor’s team’s attacking play often lacks solutions in the opponent’s penalty area.
The 4-3 win against Inter Milan was achieved with goal chances worth 0.68 xG. For every shot taken, the Old Lady received only 0.07 expected goals in Serie A – only Bologna has a weaker value in this category so far (0.06).
More focus on the back line
A return to defensive virtues could pay off at the Estadio de la Ceramica. Juve has allowed the fewest shots on goal in Serie A (12). In addition, opposing teams have only been allowed 0.06 xG per shot in matches against the Bianconeri – the lowest figure in Serie A.
Villarreal itself is sometimes limited in attack and did not take a single shot on goal against Tottenham on the first matchday. It therefore makes sense for Tudor’s team to allow the hosts more possession and wait to see what happens.
After all, Juve themselves have won only two of their last nine Champions League matches (4D, 3L) and, given the Villarreal vs. Juventus betting odds, can certainly be considered the underdogs against the Yellow Submarine.
Villarreal – Juventus Head-to-head record / H2H record
There have been two competitive matches between the two clubs so far. Villarreal and Juventus met in the 2022 Champions League. The Spanish side won the second leg 3-0 and, combined with the 1-1 draw in the first leg, qualified for the next round.
Villarreal – Juventus Tip
The hosts begin the second matchday with the confidence of having won their last three competitive games in a row. Marcelino’s side won their dress rehearsal against Athletic Bilbao 1-0, celebrating their fourth home win in their fourth home game of the season.
Villarreal have played eight competitive games so far this season. In addition to five wins and one draw, they have suffered two defeats. The 2-0 away defeat to Atletico Madrid is also the only game of the season in which the Yellow Submarine conceded more than 1.5 goals.
Juve have scored only one goal in each of their last two competitive games and posed little threat in front of goal in their penultimate match against Hellas Verona (0.34 expected goals). Villarreal will not take too many risks, but will instead focus on keeping things tight at the back. Overall, we expect a low-scoring encounter with little work for either goalkeeper.
