Will Kovac’s team remain undefeated?
Borussia Dortmund fans can be absolutely satisfied with their team’s performance so far this season. After five matchdays in the Bundesliga, the Black and Yellows are the closest challengers to Bayern, who have been flawless so far. Including the Champions League opener and the DFB Cup, BVB have yet to suffer a single defeat in seven competitive games. Of course, they will be looking to keep it that way on Wednesday evening in their second matchday fixture in Europe’s premier competition. Ahead of Dortmund’s match against Athletic Bilbao, the odds are looking good for coach Niko Kovac’s team.
This assessment is not least due to the coach himself. Niko Kovac has now been on the sidelines ten times in the league or group stage of the UEFA Champions League and remains completely undefeated (7-3-0). Overall, the former professional has managed to stabilize Borussia. Considering BVB’s recent performances and the fact that the Basques are a rather weak opponent at Signal Iduna Park, my prediction between Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao is quite clearly in favor of the hosts.
The Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao odds reinforce the Bundesliga club’s role as favorites. In the three-way market, clearly lower odds are being offered on a BVB victory. With the NEO.bet 500% odds boost on BVB vs. Bilbao, you can even get 10.80 instead of 1.80 on a win for Adeyemi, Guirassy and Co.
Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction AI
While artificial intelligence confirms the betting odds offered for many matches on this second CL match day, “BETSiE” comes to a different AI prediction for Wednesday evening’s match between Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao. Compared to the best betting providers, BVB is only assigned a 47.5% chance of winning, which would actually correspond to odds of 2.10. However, as the betting odds for a Dortmund win tend to settle in the range of 1.80-1.85, as already mentioned, there is no discernible value. The AI therefore recommends a rather contrarian bet on the double chance X2, which offers 1.95 in the Interwetten app.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Two weeks ago in Turin, BVB almost got off to a perfect start to the new Champions League season. Despite leading 4-2 with just a few minutes to go, two last-minute goals meant they had to settle for a 4-4 draw. The fact that the defense in particular lacked concentration is surprising, given that the back line has been Dortmund’s real asset so far.
Seven goals conceded in seven competitive games is not an outstanding statistic, but Gregor Kobel kept a clean sheet in five of those seven games across all competitions. The Swiss goalkeeper only conceded goals in the 3-3 draw with St. Pauli and the 4-4 draw with Juventus. At the same time, these were also the only two matches that the Black and Yellows failed to win in 2025/26.
BVB looks more solid than it has in a long time
For a prediction on the 2024 Champions League finalists to pay off on Wednesday evening between Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao, a stable defense will once again be crucial. There will definitely be opportunities up front. This is supported on the one hand by the home advantage, which traditionally plays a decisive role in the Champions League. On the other hand, however, there is also the existing individual quality. Serhou Guirassy and Karim Adeyemi are the standouts.
Guirassy has been involved in 18 goals in the Champions League since the start of last season. Only Raphinha of FC Barcelona has scored more points during this period. In Borussia’s last Champions League home game to date, against FC Barcelona (3-1) in May, the striker even scored a hat trick. Adeyemi, meanwhile, is in excellent form. Three goals and two assists in the last four competitive games provide good reasons to consider the odds on the German international scoring before the match between Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao. Interwetten is offering an impressive 3.65.
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
As fourth in La Liga last season, Athletic Club de Bilbao secured their ticket to the UEFA Champions League. However, the Basques paid dearly on the first matchday. At home against Arsenal FC, considered a title contender according to the CL betting odds, coach Ernesto Valverde’s team was largely outclassed and ultimately had to settle for a 0-2 defeat. However, the Red and Whites’ head coach has not lost two Champions League games in a row since November 2014. Overall, the defeat against the English runners-up was only the third in a total of 31 matches in which Valverde has been on the bench in the Champions League (20-8-3).
Bilbao’s offense is currently hard to beat in terms of harmlessness
However, considering the current form of the Basque Country side, that ratio could skyrocket in the coming weeks. Athletic Club has lost five of its last six competitive games. Its last victory dates back to the end of August. In La Liga, “Los Leones” have slipped to tenth place.
Particularly worrying is the fact that they have scored just one goal in their last six competitive games. Valverde’s team has failed to score in five of those games. This is closely related to the fact that key player Nico Williams has been unavailable since the international break at the beginning of September. The winger is suffering from a persistent muscle injury and will also be missing from Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday evening.
Not least because of this, I believe there is virtually no alternative but to bet on a home win between Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao. It may even be an option to bet on a start-to-finish victory for the Black and Yellows. After all, BVB has always been ahead at half-time in its last ten Bundesliga games. Alternatively, you could consider a match combo on 1X with a goal in both halves. I even think Dortmund are capable of scoring in both the first and second 45 minutes.
Dortmund – Athletic Bilbao Head-to-head record
This is the first time ever that the two clubs have faced each other in a competitive match. For Athletic Club de Bilbao, it is their first CL match against a German representative. In other UEFA competitions, however, the Basques have always looked good against opponents from the Bundesliga recently. The Red and Whites have remained unbeaten against German teams six times in a row (4-2-0). However, BVB also has a strong record in Champions League home games against clubs from Spain. Looking back at the last 16 Champions League games in front of their home crowd, they have seven wins, six draws, and only three defeats.
Dortmund – Athletic Bilbao Tip
Borussia Dortmund has a good opportunity on Wednesday evening to confirm its strong season so far and pick up its first three points in the Champions League. A win is firmly on the cards at home against Athletic Bilbao. Especially after the Black and Yellows carelessly threw away their first three points in Turin in injury time two weeks ago. The home side will certainly benefit from the fact that their guests from the Basque Country have lost five of their last six competitive games, scoring only one goal in total.
Added to this is the home advantage, which regularly helps Borussia in the Champions League. In terms of quality, I also see Kovac’s team as the favorites, so unlike the AI, I actually see value in the odds for a home win. My Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction is therefore definitely for a BVB victory. It is quite possible that the favorites will even win by two goals. Adeyemi is also a potential goalscorer.
