Ukraine must score!
The international leagues can take a breather, because this week sees the continuation of qualifying for next year’s World Cup in America, Mexico, and Canada. We take a look at Group D, where Iceland hosts Ukraine and the tip on the hosts is rewarded with odds of 3.00 by bookmaker Bet365. Other contenders include the favorites to win the group, France, and the team from Azerbaijan. We expect this match to be a battle for the important second place, which qualifies the winner for the playoffs.
The Icelanders put in a convincing performance in their first two group matches, earning three points with a win against Azerbaijan, which currently puts them in second place. In Paris, they suffered a narrow 1-2 defeat. A win against “Schowto-Blakytni” would keep the competition at bay. After their only World Cup appearance in 2018, reaching the final round would be a great success for the “Strákarnir okkar.” In a qualifying group with only four teams, every slip-up could be decisive in the end.
The visitors are likely to be only partially satisfied with their start to the qualifiers. They have only managed to secure one point from their first two matches. With just one point to their name, the yellow and blues are currently in third place and urgently need to do something about it. A defeat on Friday would see them fall behind their rivals early on. However, bookmaker Betano is quite optimistic and sees the Eastern Europeans as having the better cards in its prediction between Iceland and Ukraine. The odds are 2.37 for an away win.
Iceland – Ukraine Head-to-head record / H2H balance
We find five matches between the two nations in the annals. Ukraine has a slight edge in the overall record with two wins to only one defeat. The two teams last met in the playoff final for a place at EURO 2024. The Eastern Europeans won 2-1. We don’t expect many goals to be scored on Friday. Four of the five previous encounters have seen fewer than 2.5 goals scored. The last match in Iceland ended 2-0 to the hosts, and we wouldn’t be particularly surprised to see a repeat of that result.
Iceland – Ukraine Tip
The hosts were able to put the big underdog in this group – Azerbaijan – in their place with a clear 5-0 victory. Thanks to this high-scoring win, the Blues currently have the strongest offense in this group. The ball was pushed over the goal line a total of six times. Even though they only suffered a narrow defeat against France, the statistics show how clear the superiority of the Equipe Tricolore was. 63% possession and an xG value of 3.00 make it clear that the Icelanders got off lightly here. The Northmen themselves only managed 0.63 expected goals.
The Ukrainians disappointed in their draw in Azerbaijan and are now under pressure, as a defeat would see them lose touch with the Icelanders. However, they have won only one of their last five international matches. In the Nations League, the yellow and blues finished in a respectable second place in League B, but missed out on promotion after a 3-0 defeat to Belgium in the second leg. In their qualifying games so far, the visitors have struggled to score goals, finding the back of the net only once.
Things did not go well for the hosts in the last Nations League. After finishing third in the group, they faced Kosovo in a battle to stay in the league. But after two defeats, relegation was confirmed. However, as the “Schowto-Blakytni” have not been in good form so far, we believe that head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s team, who took over at the beginning of the year, will at least achieve a partial success in front of their own fans. Therefore, our recommendation for the Iceland vs. Ukraine game, at odds of 1.62 at the tested bookmaker Betano, is to bet on the double chance 1/X.
This match is important in the battle for second place in the group, and we expect both teams to be cautious at the back. Accordingly, we do not expect many goals to be scored. Therefore, we consider betting on less than 2.5 goals between Iceland and Ukraine, at odds of 1.78, to be a good choice.
