Will the Sokoli get the important three points?
With two shutout wins against Germany and Luxembourg, Slovakia surprisingly took the lead in Group A of the European World Cup qualifiers. However, the Sokoli have now lost 2-0 in Northern Ireland, which means that after three of six games, three teams have six points and the Slovaks are currently only third due to their inferior goal difference. It is therefore essential for Francesco Calzona’s team to win as convincingly as possible at home against Luxembourg.
However, the Sokoli did not exactly set the world alight with their attacking play. Instead, they impressed defensively, conceding only two goals in three qualifying games, while their attack only found the net three times. Even the first leg against Luxembourg, who are languishing in fourth place in the four-team group after three defeats, was won by a minimal 1-0 margin. We therefore see the greatest value in this match in the Slovakia vs. Luxembourg prediction that Slovakia can secure another clean sheet victory.
After the Luxembourg national soccer team came so close to qualifying for a major tournament for the first time in the EURO 2024 qualifiers, only to be defeated by Georgia in the playoffs, the Red Lions certainly had hopes of playing a bigger role in Group A.
However, three defeats from three games and a goal difference of 1-8 speak for themselves. Luxembourg have now gone six international games without a win (one draw, four defeats), failing to score in four of those six games.
Because Slovakia also needs to improve its goal difference, it makes perfect sense to bet on Slovakia vs. Luxembourg at odds of 1.94 that the Red Lions will lose by at least two goals in Trvana.
Slovakia – Luxembourg Head-to-head record
Head to head: 6 – 1 – 1
A total of eight international matches have been played between the two nations so far, with the Slovakian national soccer team leading the head-to-head record against the Red Lions by a clear margin with six wins. Slovakia has remained unbeaten against Luxembourg in its last five matches (four wins, one draw) and has avoided conceding a goal in four of those five games. The Sokoli also won the first leg in Luxembourg 1–0 on September 7, 2025.
Slovakia – Luxembourg Tip
Even the best betting providers are clearly favoring the Sokoli in the match between Slovakia and Luxembourg, although they now have to recover from a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Northern Ireland. After a convincing opening victory over Germany, which was confirmed with a 1-0 win in the first leg in Luxembourg, the Slovaks have now slipped to third place.
Ideally, they should be able to improve their goal difference against the Red Lions in Trnava. However, this could be the chance for the struggling visitors, who want to make the most of their good defensive organization to launch occasional attacks, but have lost all three international matches under Holtz’s successor Jeff Strasser, conceding eight goals and scoring just one.
The bottom line is that Luxembourg simply struggle to score goals. In four of their last six international matches, the Red Lions failed to score. In the other two games, they scored only one goal each in clear defeats against Switzerland and Northern Ireland (both 1-3). Accordingly, the prediction for Slovakia vs. Luxembourg is a shutout victory for the Sokoli.
