Will the Ay-Yildizlilar shake off their guests from the South Caucasus?
A year and a half ago, both nations clashed in the preliminary round of the 2024 European Football Championship in Germany. Now, both the Turks and the Jvarosnebi (English: the Crusaders) want to be back in the game for the 2026 World Cup. However, in Group E of the European qualifying phase, Spain is the absolute benchmark with three wins from three games and 11-0 goals, so this duel will probably only decide second place, which at least offers the chance of a playoff. If the tip for an away win for the visitors from the South Caucasus does not come true in Turkey vs. Georgia, the Ay-Yildizlilar would probably win the race here. After all, the Turks won the first leg in Tbilisi 3-2.
Overall, five of the seven previous matches between the two nations have gone to Turkey (one draw, one defeat) – including the last three international matches in a row, in which the Ay-Yildizlilar always scored three goals against Georgia. Although Kvaratskhelia and Co. will certainly give it their all away in Izmir, we believe that Turkey will extend their winning streak and also secure a home victory against the Jvarosnebi in the second leg. Accordingly, our main recommendation is a home win for Vincenzo Montella’s team, who had to deal with a minor distraction after his team’s resounding 6-1 away win in Bulgaria: substitute goalkeeper Berke Özer left without permission, causing a scandal at an inopportune moment.
Nevertheless, we do not believe that Özer’s departure and the publicity surrounding the affair on his social media channels will have an impact on the fundamentally intact team, which showed exactly the right response after the debacle against Spain (0-6) with a 6-1 win in Bulgaria, thereby also correcting the goal difference that had gotten out of hand. It may not be enough to catch up with the Furia Roja, but we believe that the Ay-Yildizlilar should win the duel with Georgia.
As this fixture has always produced plenty of goals in recent years, betting on over 2.5 goals is a sensible alternative to the three-way system. The Merkur Bets app offers odds of 1.67 for Turkey to beat Georgia.
Turkey – Georgia Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 5 – 1 – 1
Seven international matches have been played between the two nations so far, who also faced each other in the preliminary round of the 2024 European Championship in Germany. In five of the seven cases – including the last three consecutive encounters – the Turkish national soccer team prevailed against Georgia. The first leg in Group E of the World Cup qualifiers in Tbilisi also went to the Ay-Yildizlilar with a score of 3–2.
Turkey – Georgia Tip
The Ay-Yildizlilar lead the head-to-head comparison very clearly, and even now, our prediction for Turkey vs. Georgia is a home win for the Turkish team, which would win the battle for second place in the table with three points and remain within striking distance of group leaders Spain. Although a 6-0 defeat to La Furia Roja means that winning the group is no longer possible, the Turks, who are now facing an up-and-coming nation that lacks quality in depth behind the exceptional players Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze, and Kochorashvili, will still be there if the Iberians slip up.
We expect the visitors from the South Caucasus to put in a good performance in Izmir. In the end, however, the Turks, who are clearly better in terms of quality, are likely to win in front of their home crowd. Our recommendation is therefore for a home win for the Ay-Yildizlilar.
