Will Struffi get back on track in Kazakhstan?
The 2025 US Open has just become a turning point for Jan-Lennard Struff, who not only eliminated his current opponent Mackenzie McDonald 3-1 in the first round at Flushing Meadows, but also advanced to the round of 16 – for the first time ever in his career. This saw the 35-year-old from Warstein return to the top 100 in the ATP world rankings. However, in the only two tournaments he has played since then – both on the Challenger Tour, incidentally – Struffi failed in the first round. So even now, with Jan-Lennard Struff facing Mackenzie McDonald, the German’s victory is not a foregone conclusion, despite his 3-1 win in New York City a few weeks ago.
Mackenzie McDonald, on the other hand, played a Challenger Tour tournament in Jinan, China, last week, where the American promptly reached the final. Only a 0-2 defeat to Arthur Cazaux (ATP 70) separated the Californian from winning the title on Sunday. Just a few days later, the 30-year-old is now back on the ATP Tour. The strain of traveling and the short recovery time speak against McDonald in the Struff vs. McDonald prediction, as does the last duel at the US Open, which he lost 1-3 to Struffi. Against this backdrop, our main recommendation is nevertheless for the German to advance, who would then face the number one seed in the second round in the form of Karen Khachanov.
However, Jan-Lennard Struff’s recent results are somewhat worrying. In Villena, Spain, he lost 0-2 to Edas Butvilas (ATP 291). A week ago in Roanne, France, he lost 1-2 to Stefanos Sakellaridis (ATP 306). So if you wouldn’t rule out a slip-up by the 35-year-old German, you could alternatively bet that the player who wins the first set will also win the match in two sets.
Jan-Lennard Struff – Mackenzie McDonald Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:0
For the first and only time in their careers, the paths of both athletes have just crossed in the first round of the 2025 US Open. At that time, Mackenzie McDonald took a 1:0 lead in front of his home crowd, but then lost three sets in a row to Jan-Lennard Struff, who won 3:1 and advanced to the next round.
Jan-Lennard Struff – Mackenzie McDonald Tip
After Jan-Lennard Struff prevailed at the US Open, advancing to the round of 16 and returning to the top 100 in the ATP world rankings, things have quieted down again for the Warsteiner, who slipped up in two consecutive Challenger tournaments against players far outside the world’s top 250. Mackenzie McDonald, meanwhile, was in the final of a Challenger tournament in Jinan two days ago, which must have taken a lot of energy. Although the American is slightly ahead in terms of form, it must also be taken into account that Struff will be facing McDonald in Kazakhstan after a short recovery period and possibly also suffering from the strain of travel, where he is about to play his sixth singles match in a week.
Considering that Struffi has not been on the court for almost a week and already defeated the American at the US Open, we believe the 35-year-old from Warstein has a good chance of securing a ticket to the second round. We therefore recommend betting on the German to win.
For Struff to defeat the Californian again, the odds for Struff vs. McDonald are 1.58, which we are betting on at Bet365 with six out of ten units.
