Will TSG return from Millerntor with three points?

After a promising start to the new season with seven points from their first three games, FC St. Pauli’s form has taken a significant downturn recently. The Kiezkickers have lost three games in a row, dropping behind their city rivals Hamburger SV in the table.

The international break therefore came at the right time, even though the ongoing unrest surrounding captain Jackson Irvine has almost divided the club on various levels. At home against TSG Hoffenheim, who are level on points, Blessin’s team now wants to get back on track. On paper, a bet on the “Boys in Brown” is at least conceivable between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim!

The home side draws hope and strength from recent memories of matches against Sinsheim, among other things. Only against Holstein Kiel, who were later relegated, and TSG Hoffenheim did FC St. Pauli manage to score the maximum six points from two games in the previous season.

However, it is important to note for the upcoming St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim prediction that there have been some positive changes in Kraichgau. Although Ilzer’s team currently has the same number of points as their upcoming opponents, their performances definitely give cause for optimism that TSG will have a much more relaxed 2025/26 season compared to last season.

In my opinion, it is questionable whether the home team is the slight favorite ahead of the direct duel, which will conclude the 7th matchday in the Bundesliga on Sunday afternoon. In terms of quality, the visitors from the south of Germany should have the advantage.

If they also manage to get to grips with Hamburg’s set-piece strength, the odds of 2.80 for an away win in the Interwetten app between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim certainly offer value. However, this could be the crux of the matter, because while Blessin’s team has scored five of its eight goals so far this season from set pieces, TSG has already conceded nine (!) goals from set pieces!

St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim Prediction AI

Meanwhile, artificial intelligence expects a very balanced and tough soccer game. At least that’s what the predicted xG values suggest. Here, St. Pauli has a slight edge with 1.20 to 1.16. Adding the two values together gives a total of 2.36 goals, which – purely factually – suggests a match with a maximum of two goals (under 2.5). Comparing the TSG probability of victory from “BETSiE” with that of the betting providers also results in a value-rich St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim AI prediction for an away win.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

A draw against Dortmund, a derby win at HSV and finally a 2-1 triumph against FC Augsburg – after three match days, FC St. Pauli was one of the positive surprises of the season start. Around a month later, however, the climate on the Elbe has become harsher – in terms of mood, sport and weather!

St. Pauli’s offense is hard to beat in terms of harmlessness

The Kiezkickers have not earned any points in their last three games. In Stuttgart, at home against Leverkusen, and at Werder Bremen, coach Alexander Blessin’s team suffered three defeats. In total, they scored only one goal. For the second time since returning to the German top flight, they are now facing four defeats in a row.

With regard to the upcoming match between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim, I think it’s best to refrain from making a prediction about the hosts. In fact, the “Boys in Brown” are currently the team in the Bundesliga with the lowest xG value and, without the aforementioned strength from set pieces (five of eight goals scored), are finding it extremely difficult to score goals.

Because the defense has also shown weaknesses recently and there is a question mark over the availability of defensive leader Hauke Wahl, I am more inclined to bet on the visitors. If St. Pauli fall behind 0-1 for the sixth time in their seventh league game, you can cash in on attractive St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim betting odds on “1st goal TSG Hoffenheim.”

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

Although TSG Hoffenheim also has only seven points to its name and has failed to win three games in a row, those in charge are not entirely dissatisfied with the first two months of this season.

On the one hand, because after last year’s sobering experience, they are setting their sights lower in Kraichgau. On the other hand, the personnel changes made in the summer logically require time to develop. Nevertheless, the points collected are higher than those of their opponents, especially since the Blue and Whites have already faced Bayern, Frankfurt, Leverkusen, and Freiburg – four of the top six teams in 2024/25.

Is Hoffenheim stronger than the table suggests?

The fact that Sinsheim are playing away on Sunday evening can even be seen as an advantage. All seven points mentioned so far have been won by TSG in away games. Victories in Leverkusen and at Union Berlin, as well as a 1-1 draw at SC Freiburg, where a win would also have been possible, underline that Ilzer’s team is currently a very dangerous opponent away from home. Across the season, the village club has even gone five consecutive Bundesliga away games without defeat.

One of the key players in the team’s successful offense, which has already scored nine goals, is undoubtedly Fisnik Asllani. The Kosovar has scored four goals this season. The national team player, who also scored for his country during the international break and can continue to dream of the 2026 World Cup, has scored all of his goals in away games! That’s exactly why I warmly recommend betting on Asllani to score in the St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim match.

St. Pauli – Hoffenheim Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

There have only been six meetings between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim to date. With three wins, one defeat, and two draws, the Hamburg team leads the head-to-head comparison. This is thanks in particular to the two wins in the previous season, when the teams faced each other for the first time in twelve years. In both the home and away games, Blessin’s team did not concede a single goal (1-0, 2-0). TSG’s only victory dates back to 2010, when they won 1-0 at the Millerntor. Christian Ilzer and his team would certainly have no objection if this three-point haul were to be repeated around 15 years later.

St. Pauli – Hoffenheim Tip

FC St. Pauli and TSG Hoffenheim start the seventh matchday with seven points each. However, both teams have been waiting for three points for three games. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the seven points collected by the Kraichgauers are worth more, especially since their opponents were significantly more complicated than those faced by the “Boys in Brown.” In addition, it must be noted that the Blue and Whites have earned all of their points away from home so far and have not lost any of their last five away games in the German top flight across two seasons.

In addition, the home side have had to work extremely hard to score goals recently. A single goal in the last 270 minutes of play and only three goals in total from open play underline their lack of threat in front of goal. I therefore believe in the visitors from Sinsheim and see value in the betting odds for an away win, but I would also bet on Ilzer’s team scoring the first goal of the game between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim.