Will Valencia spend the season fighting relegation?
Just a few years ago, the Champions League anthem rang in the ears of the visiting fans. The Bats qualified for the top flight in the 2018/2019 season and won the Copa del Rey in 2019. In the Alaves vs. Valencia tip, Los Che are a long way from such glorious moments.
Carlos Corberan and his team have been waiting for a win for three league games (1D, 2L). During this phase, the white and blacks not only missed out on victories against two of the three teams in the relegation zone, but also conceded at least two goals in three consecutive games. However, the Corberan XI’s defense is not the focus of the Alaves vs. Valencia prediction.
We were impressed by the hosts’ defensive unit. Los Albiazules have conceded only eight goals in eight league games. However, that is not the main reason for our soccer bet on this matchup. The entire concept of working against the ball seems coherent and is implemented on the field by the entire team.
Nevertheless, even the bookmakers in Germany don’t really believe the home side will keep a clean sheet. At least that’s what the Alaves vs. Valencia betting odds suggest. Head coach Eduardo Coudet’s back line is one of the two best defenses in La Liga (6.83 xGA).
In addition, the Babazorros have collected most of their points at home so far. Alaves have only suffered one defeat at home, picking up two of their three wins of the season at the Estadio Mendizorrotza and even holding Atletico Madrid to a draw (1-1).
Valencia, on the other hand, have yet to collect a single three points away from home, picking up just one point from four away games and compiling a miserable goal difference of 3:11.
Alaves – Valencia Head-to-head record / H2H record
You can get a good impression of this pairing from the overview of previous encounters. Valencia has not won against Los Albiazules since August 2021. The last away win for the Bats at Estadio Mendizorrotza (2017) was even longer ago.
Alaves has won four of the last five direct duels and achieved each of these triumphs without conceding a goal (each a 1-0 victory). It is perfectly acceptable to increase the risk in the Alaves – Valencia tip and consider a bet on “Alaves wins without conceding a goal.”
Alaves – Valencia tip
League games against Alaves are always tough. The Babazorros only allow 9.8 passes per defensive action (3rd) and shift their defense far forward with the entire team (starting distance 44.2 m – the third highest value in La Liga).
Eduardo Coudet has prepared his players well for this approach. Despite their aggressive style of play, only two teams have conceded fewer shots inside their own penalty area than the hosts in this matchup (58.33 percent).
Alaves offers a rare combination of low volume of opponent shots on their own goal (27 – fifth in the league) and poor finishing positions for their opponents (0.08 expected goals against per shot – best in the league).
With 6.83 expected goals against, the hosts have the second-best expected defense in the league – only Bilbao (6.21 xGA) is better. In their current state, the Bats are no match for a cohesive defensive team like Alaves is in the early stages of the season.
