Will the Emirates remain Arsenal’s fortress?

On Tuesday evening, Arsenal FC will face Atletico Madrid at the Emirates Stadium in the UEFA Champions League. The last meeting between the two teams was seven years ago and took place in the Europa League – both teams are now regulars in the Champions League again. Arsenal have been particularly strong in this competition, winning their first two games without conceding a single goal. Therefore, in our Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, we are forecasting another victory for the Gunners.

In general, the Londoners have been very strong at home, winning four of their five home games and keeping four clean sheets. Atleti, on the other hand, lost to English champions Liverpool on the first matchday of the Champions League, but recently won 5-1 at home against Eintracht Frankfurt. However, Simeone’s team has its weaknesses away from home: in five away games this season, the Spaniards have remained winless and suffered two defeats. In our Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, we are betting on defeat number three.

The duel between Arsenal and Atlético Madrid has been a rarity in European history so far. The only previous encounters were in the semifinals of the 2017/18 UEFA Europa League. At that time, the Spaniards prevailed with an aggregate score of 2-1. After a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium, Diego Simeone’s team won the second leg at the Wanda Metropolitano 1-0, with Diego Costa scoring the decisive goal.

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction AI

Our AI generally agrees with the bookmakers’ assessment. They also consider the Gunners to be the clear favorites going into the game. Otherwise, the bookmakers’ odds exceed all the probabilities specified by our AI. The highest value is offered on the tip “Both teams will not score” – the probabilities are closest to each other at 55.5% from the bookmaker and 54.8% from our AI. The tip can be played for odds of 1.80 at Interwetten.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

The Gunners are currently in strong form and have won all of their last six games against Spanish teams – and that’s against well-known opponents: twice against Real Madrid, twice against Sevilla, and against Girona and Athletic Bilbao. This means they already hold the record for the longest winning streak by a team against Spanish opponents in the history of the UEFA Champions League.

Mikel Arteta’s team is also impressive defensively across the board. Along with Inter Milan, Arsenal is one of only two teams that have not conceded a goal in the current Champions League season. For another clean sheet, you can secure odds of 2.10 at Winamax for the Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid match.

The Gunners’ defense stands strong

With an expected goals against (xG against) of just 0.85, the Londoners also have the most stable defense in the competition. In seven of their last ten league games, they have kept their opponents below one expected goal – including 0.35 against Athletic Bilbao and 0.5 against Olympiacos this season.

The Gunners are also shining individually: Bukayo Saka has been directly involved in 17 goals (11 goals, six assists) in 19 Champions League appearances. Since his debut on September 20, 2023, he has been involved in a goal every 89 minutes, the second-best record of any winger – only Barcelona’s Raphinha is ahead of him with 69 minutes. Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid betting odds of 3.05 are available for another goal from the Englishman.

Atlético Madrid – Statistics & current form

On the other side, Atlético Madrid travels with a mixed record. In the group and league stages of the Champions League, the Colchoneros have never won at an English club – they have remained winless in five attempts (two draws, three defeats). The 4-0 defeat in London against Chelsea FC in October 2009 was particularly painful. In our Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid prediction, we tip that they will remain winless.

Overall, their record against English teams in recent years has been poor: Atlético have won only one of their last nine matches in European competitions (two draws, six defeats) – a 1-0 win at Manchester United in the Champions League round of 16 second leg in March 2022.

Álvarez revitalizes the offense

Nevertheless, Simeone’s team has qualities that should challenge Arsenal. Atlético leads the current Champions League season in the category “passes that break through the opposing defense” (22). In their 5-1 home win against Eintracht Frankfurt on matchday two alone, they played 14 such passes – the highest number achieved in a single game this season.

One player in particular stands out: Julián Álvarez has scored an impressive 13 goals in 11 Champions League games since the start of the 2023/24 season. No other player has exceeded his expected goal value (xG) so significantly during this period – with +7.6 (13 goals with 5.4 expected goals), he leads this category by a wide margin. For the Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid game, our tip is “Alvarez to score.”

Arsenal – Atlético Madrid Head-to-head record

Arsenal and Atlético Madrid have only faced each other twice so far – both matches took place in the 2017/18 Europa League season. After a 1-1 draw in the first leg in London, Atlético won the second leg in Madrid 1-0, winning the semi-final with an aggregate score of 2-1. Overall, the record slightly favors the Spaniards, who have won once, while Arsenal are still waiting for their first win against the Colchoneros.

Arsenal – Atlético Madrid Tip

Arsenal go into this game as favorites thanks to their current form and home strength. They have yet to drop a point or concede a goal in the Champions League. They have won four of their five games at home and are also unbeaten. They have also won their last six games against Spanish teams, giving them the longest winning streak in Champions League history.

Atletico, on the other hand, have won only one of their two Champions League games and are still winless in five away games. However, they are not without a chance away from home: they have scored at least once in every game. It is also striking that four of their five away games have seen 2-3 goals scored – a pattern that continues. Hopes now rest on Alvarez, who has contributed 13 goals in his last eleven Champions League games. Their record against English teams is also bleak – they are still winless against the island nation in the Champions League group stage.