Will Shelton serve his way into the next round?

Late autumn in Bercy loves the serve, and when the serve is decisive, the American automatically becomes the favorite in our Ben Shelton vs. Andrey Rublev tip. Two power baseliners clash, with the difference that one produces more free points on indoor hard courts.

Both opponents have already played their first match in the current competition – Rublev has even played two matches. Like his 23-year-old opponent (7-6, 6-3 vs. Cobolli), the Russian pro won his two previous appearances at the last Masters event of the calendar year without losing a set. In our Ben Shelton vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, the 28-year-old’s streak will come to an end.

The American is in top 10 form this season and has won the first major event of his career. In Canada, Shelton successfully claimed his first Masters-level trophy, winning the final against Karen Khachanov in three hard-fought sets, including two tiebreaks.

This already shows why the 23-year-old is given a slight advantage in the Ben Shelton vs. Andrey Rublev betting odds. Shelton loves the big stage, his nerves have been tested and he has confidently overcome most of the trials.

In addition, it is well known what breathtaking serves the US boy has in his racket. Shelton has won 87.8 percent of his service games (7th) in the last 52 weeks. On hard courts, the 23-year-old moves even further up the list in this discipline (89.5 percent – a top 5 ranking).

Ben Shelton – Andrey Rublev Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

There has only been one meeting at ATP level so far. In 2024, Shelton won the quarterfinal in Basel after three intense sets (7-5, 6-7, 6-4) and a tiebreak. This season, the American has played 59 matches, winning 39 of them and playing an above-average 43 tiebreaks.

In the ATP world rankings, Shelton (7th) has long since overtaken his opponent. Rublev was once ranked in the top 5, but has recently slipped to 17th place. Among other things, the 28-year-old has recently been struggling with his form. Before the last Masters event of the year in Paris, Rublev lost his first match in four consecutive tournaments.

Ben Shelton – Andrey Rublev Tip

Nerves of steel and a serve that, on a good day, is unmatched by almost any other pro on the circuit give the American a clear advantage in our Ben Shelton – Andrey Rublev tip. Shelton has one of the eight best service ratings on the tour (288.5), significantly outshining Rublev (276.2).

However, the difference is even clearer in another category. Shelton saved 68.1 percent of break points against him (7th) and won 75 percent of decisive sets over the past year. On the other hand, Rublev only saved 62.1 percent of break points against him.

However, his rate of winning tiebreaks (45 percent) is significantly lower. As soon as a decisive set is needed, the Russian loses more than half of his matches. This explains, among other things, why he has won only one of seven matches against top 10 players this season.