What is Augsburg’s plan?

It’s a game that promises intensity – but will probably only really work for one of the two teams. Augsburg presses like no other Bundesliga team, but the structure behind the pressure is crumbling. BVB does almost the same thing – only smarter, more precisely controlled, as in our Augsburg vs. Dortmund tip.

Both clubs had to play in the DFB Cup during the week. Both clubs almost had a negative experience ahead of our Augsburg vs. BVB prediction. In contrast to the Fuggerstadt team (0-1 vs. Bochum), BVB prevailed against Frankfurt and showed stronger nerves in the penalty shootout (4-2).

FCA suffered another blow with their cup exit against the second-to-last team in the 2nd Bundesliga – head coach Sandro Wagner seems shaken. On the field against the second division team, they lacked structure, balance, and the necessary confidence in their own strengths.

It should come as no surprise that the Black and Yellows come out of the Augsburg vs. Dortmund betting odds comparison with clear advantages.

If this option is not currently available to you, we have found another variant in the Betano app that also serves its purpose and brings playable Augsburg vs. BVB odds to the market. If you combine “Dortmund win” with the addition of “Over 1.5 goals” in the game, you will receive 1.85 times your winnings if successful.

Equally possible, albeit somewhat riskier, would be a bet on “Dortmund wins without conceding a goal.” However, this would definitely fit in with our analysis and the form curves of the two teams.

Augsburg vs. BVB AI prediction

Our artificial intelligence also considers the idea of a shutout victory for BVB to be plausible. According to the Augsburg vs. Dortmund AI prediction, the odds of 2.40 at Interwetten for “Both teams to score – No” represent value. We all probably know which team is most likely to leave the field without scoring.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

It has been a week to forget for FCA at home so far. The Fuggerstadt team suffered a huge 0-6 defeat against RB Leipzig at the WWK Arena on the last Bundesliga matchday. The aftermath of this result was also clearly evident in the DFB Cup.

During the week, Wagner’s team was determined to respond to criticism from outside and their own fans and advance to the next round against VfL Bochum. However, things turned out completely differently and the Fuggerstadt team dug themselves into an even bigger crisis hole with their 0-1 defeat against the second division team.

The hosts have recently lacked balance in their play—a recurring theme since Sandro Wagner took office. FCA has already conceded 20 goals in the German top flight (18th). According to our Augsburg vs. Dortmund prediction, more will follow on the next matchday.

High risk, little reward

No team in the Bundesliga currently presses more frequently and higher than FC Augsburg. 74 high ball wins, 110 pressing sequences, and a defensive line averaging 45 meters – that sounds like courage and dynamism, but it comes at a high price.

The downside of this unbalanced approach is brutal and can be seen in many different statistics. Starting with the most goals conceded (20th), confirmed by the most expected goals conceded (17.10 xGA) and reinforced by the most expected goals conceded per shot allowed (0.15).

Augsburg opens up the field with its attacking play, but fails to defend effectively behind. The gaps between the lines are too big and the counter-pressing comes too late. And once the opponent breaks through, clear scoring chances arise. Even the team’s own pressing yield is meager: only ten shots from 74 ball wins, not a single goal – the effort is wasted.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

On the seventh matchday, BVB visited the German record champions and were defeated (1-2). The lost game was quickly forgotten. Shortly afterwards, Niko Kovac and his professionals won the Champions League away game in Copenhagen (4-2), celebrated a 1-0 home win against Cologne last weekend and advanced to the next round of the cup after a penalty shootout against Frankfurt.

The effectiveness with which the Black and Yellows have outwitted their opponents this season is remarkable. The fourth-placed team has not conceded a goal in five of eight rounds of the current Bundesliga season – a joint best record with Bayern.

What’s more, Gregor Kobel has been much more than just the hero of the penalty shootout against Frankfurt. The 27-year-old has saved 76 percent of the shots on his goal, putting him at the top of the list of current Bundesliga goalkeepers.

Structured aggressiveness

Like FCA, Dortmund also plays high up the pitch. On average, the back line operates at a height of 45.6 meters – the best in the league. But unlike FC Augsburg, the processes in Niko Kovac’s team work. BVB won 68 high balls, which generated 18 shots and one goal.

The rate of shots after high ball wins is the second best in the German top flight (26.5 percent). Added to this is a top-three defense. Apart from Bayern, no Bundesliga team has conceded fewer goals than Borussia (6) this season. In addition, they have the third-best expected goals against (8.08 xGA) in the league.

Individually, Kovac naturally has much better players at his disposal. However, it is also the finely tuned balance in their play that makes the fourth-placed team so dangerous at the moment. Only Bayern and Leverkusen have created better scoring chances on average than the Black and Yellows (0.13 xG per shot). This helps the visitors to an away win in our Augsburg vs. Dortmund prediction.

Augsburg – BVB Head-to-head record

Little can be learned from the last encounters between these two sides ahead of their clash on matchday nine. For the sake of completeness, however, they are worth mentioning. Augsburg won both head-to-head matches last season. The Fuggerstadt team celebrated a 2-1 victory at home. Away at BVB, FCA even took all three points (1-0) on matchday 25.

Previously, they had only managed three wins in their first 26 Bundesliga matches against BVB (7 draws, 16 defeats). At least the hosts have lost only one of their last five Bundesliga games against Dortmund at home (2 wins, 2 draws).

Augsburg – BVB Tip

Tempo, depth, and space behind the defense are factors that Dortmund seeks and has learned to love. The Black and Yellows find all of these aspects in their opponents. When BVB overcomes the initial pressing, gaps open up – and that is exactly where the added value of this bet comes in; BVB scores almost automatically when the game opens up.

Augsburg could well have periods of pressure, but their inefficiency after winning the ball prevents them from creating any real goal-scoring opportunities. Borussia, on the other hand, uses space purposefully and has the defensive control to punish Augsburg’s vertical risk.

The numbers suggest similar playing styles, but at completely different levels. BVB takes on the role of favorite and fulfills it with flying colors at the start of the ninth Bundesliga matchday. Both teams also had to play in the DFB Cup during the week.