Will the Cypriots upset the Yellow Submarine?
Alongside teams such as Ajax Amsterdam and Benfica Lisbon, who have all lost their first three games in the Champions League group stage, Villarreal CF is certainly one of the biggest disappointments. The eastern Spanish team has only picked up one point out of a possible nine and scored just two goals. Even Cypriot minnows Pafos have already picked up one point more than the Yellow Submarine, despite the Blue and Whites having scored just one goal. Against this backdrop, the tip for a low-scoring match between Pafos and Villarreal is very popular.
The prediction of under 2.75 goals in Pafos vs. Villarreal is very interesting, especially as this Asian line still includes a small safety net in case there are three goals. After all, Pafos has already conceded 66 shots on goal – more than any other team in the competition. However, the Cypriots have only conceded five goals, while the Yellow Submarine has already lost two Champions League games in 2025/26 without scoring.
Anyone who, in view of Villarreal’s lackluster international performances, is not averse to a small outsider tip can also bet on Pafos against Villarreal at odds of 2.75 at Betano for the double chance 1X and the Cypriots to win a point.
Pafos vs. Villarreal AI prediction
Often, rational assessment from a human perspective and the cool mathematical calculation of AI diverge. However, this is not the case in this game, so we can keep it short: The AI prediction for Pafos vs. Villarreal matches our betting recommendation and points to the Asian line under 2.75 goals. The odds of 1.99 imply a probability of 50.3 percent.
Pafos – Statistics & current form
Pafos FC has recently suffered two setbacks at the national level, first losing the top spot in the table after a 1-2 defeat to Omonia, then losing to AEK on penalties in the Super Cup. In the Champions League, however, the club led by Spanish coach Juan Carlos Carcedo has already earned two out of a possible nine points.
In terms of form, however, the newcomers are currently on their longest winless streak in international competition (four games – two draws, two defeats) and have failed to score in three of those four games. The Blue and Whites have yet to take the lead in any of their Champions League games this season – a rarity among the participants after three matchdays.
Pafos has not been behind too often
However, it should also be noted that Carcedo’s team has conceded only five goals despite a total of 66 shots on goal (the highest number in the CL league phase) and spent 73 percent of the playing time in a tie. In two of the three Champions League games, the Cypriots even kept a clean sheet, which is why a surprise point for Pafos against Villarreal should not be categorically ruled out.
However, Pafos has generated the fewest ball wins of any team so far with its high pressing (only seven high turnovers). If they really want to get a point, their offensive attacks will have to be on target. It is also striking that David Luiz, a defender, is the most dangerous player in the blue and white team in terms of shots in the penalty area (four), ball contacts in the penalty area (five), and expected goals (xG 0.79).
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
In Cyprus, Villarreal has only faced Apollon Limassol in Europe so far (4-0 H, 2-0 A; 2014/15). However, the recent international record generally favors Spain’s representatives: the last six Champions League matches have all gone to the Spanish teams (total score 22:2).
Nevertheless, Villarreal’s form in the group and league stages of the Champions League has been fragile for some time. They have suffered no fewer than eleven defeats in their last 16 games (three wins, two draws). Moreover, they have only kept one clean sheet in this period, which dates back to November 2021 (2-0 against Young Boys).
Will Villarreal break their duck in Cyprus?
As good as things are currently going in La Liga, where Marcelino’s side consolidated third place with a 4-0 win over Rayo Vallecano, their results in the Champions League have left room for improvement. This season, Villarreal has been behind for 71 percent of its Champions League playing time. Only Ajax has spent proportionally more time behind. This makes it difficult to control games, especially since the number of ball wins up front is manageable (14 high turnovers; lower range in the league).
One bright spot is the creation of scoring chances. Nicolas Pépé has already created eleven scoring chances. Only Kylian Mbappé (16) and Arda Güler (12) had more in the first three matchdays. So, the chances are not bad for the team from the Spanish east coast to finally transfer their strong domestic form to Europe and set the course for the knockout stages with a vital away win.
Pafos – Villarreal Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
There has never been an international competitive match between the two clubs. This means that there is no head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Pafos vs. Villarreal.
Pafos – Villarreal Tip
The Yellow Submarine is currently third in La Liga and defeated Rayo Vallecano 4-0 at the weekend. However, things are not going so well for the eastern Spanish side internationally. Villarreal CF lost two of their three games in the Champions League group stage without scoring a single goal. The away game in Cyprus will therefore not be a walk in the park, especially as Pafos FC only lost to Bayern Munich (1-5) and kept a clean sheet in the other two games of the group stage, holding Olympiacos Piraeus and Kairat Almaty to goalless draws.
Whether the Cypriots can really trouble the Spaniards remains to be seen. A goal fest would still be surprising at Limassol Stadium, where the Blue and Whites have to play their Champions League games, which is why we are betting on under 2.75 goals in this match.
