Will the calf muscle throw a spanner in the works for the Canadian?
In principle, the only question in the Björn Borg Group ahead of the 2025 ATP Finals was who would accompany top star Jannik Sinner to the semifinals: two-time world champion Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, or perhaps debutant Ben Shelton. After the latter two lost their opening matches, their chances have declined accordingly. However, the winner can still have hopes. Especially if Ben Shelton beats Felix Auger-Aliassime, which would put the American in a position where, in the event of a Zverev defeat against Sinner, he would still have it completely in his own hands with a victory against the German in the third group match.
On paper, the Canadian is the favorite, having won his only singles match against “Big Ben” 3-0, although that match was on clay. It is quite possible that there will now be a rematch, especially since Felix Auger-Aliassime had to receive treatment on his calf several times in his opening match against Jannik Sinner and was close to retiring. Against this backdrop, we expect a hard-fought first set, but assume that the match will shift in favor of the 23-year-old in the second set at the latest. Accordingly, the Ben Shelton vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction is an exciting bet that Ben Shelton will win the second set regardless of the outcome of the match.
If the injured Felix Auger-Aliassime wants to win the match, he will probably need a clean victory in two sets. A very reasonable alternative to our main recommendation is therefore to bet that less than 2.5 sets will be played before the decision is made. For this, NEO.bet is offering odds of 1.62 on Ben Shelton against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Ben Shelton – Felix Auger-Aliassime Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0:1
The two athletes have only crossed paths once so far, when they met in the third round of the 2024 French Open on the red clay of Roland Garros. At that time, the favored Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is more comfortable on clay than the Canadian, won in three straight sets, dropping just seven games in total (6-4, 6-2, and 6-1).
Ben Shelton – Felix Auger-Aliassime Tip
Although the head-to-head record and the advantage in experience favor the Canadian, the betting odds from the top bookmakers are now leaning towards Ben Shelton against Felix Auger-Aliassime, which takes into account the fact that the man from Montreal is injured and was close to retiring in his opening match due to problems with his left calf. This could make the decisive difference, although it should be noted that “Big Ben” has only won seven of his 27 singles matches against top 10 players so far.
We don’t rule out the possibility that the Canadian will get off to a good start and make it just as difficult for the American as he did for top favorite Jannik Sinner. But if his calf gives out again, the physically strong “Big Ben” will probably be there to take advantage. With this in mind, the tip for Ben Shelton vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime is very exciting, with the 23-year-old likely to win the second set.
