Will the Spaniard maintain his top position?
With two wins from his first two matches in the Jimmy Connors Group, Carlos Alcaraz not only has one foot in the semifinals, but is also just one win away from ending the 2025 season in the undisputed No. 1 spot in the ATP world rankings, ahead of his closest rival Jannik Sinner.
If Carlos Alcaraz wins against Lorenzo Musetti, this milestone will be achieved. However, the player from Tuscany will certainly not give him anything for free. The challenger also still has a chance of advancing after his 2-1 victory over Alex de Minaur.
If Taylor Fritz wins his match against Alex de Minaur in the afternoon, Lorenzo Musetti would need a clean 2-0 victory over Carlos Alcaraz, as even a 2-1 win would no longer be enough. If the Spaniard takes the lead in the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction, that would certainly pull the plug on the world number nine, which is why we see the greatest value in this match in betting on the six-time Grand Slam winner to beat his Italian opponent, against whom he also has a clear 7-1 head-to-head record, 2-0.
In principle, it would not be uninteresting to consider betting on the underdog, especially since Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti odds of 5.75 are being offered for an Italian victory, which promises a positive expected value even with a probability of just 18 percent. However, we don’t even think the underdog has such a small chance of winning, which is why we can’t offer any alternatives to the suggested favorite tip for this match.
Carlos Alcaraz – Lorenzo Musetti Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 7:1
The two players have crossed paths eight times on the ATP Tour so far, and in seven of those eight cases, Carlos Alcaraz prevailed over the Italian. Most recently, the two players faced each other in the semifinals of the 2025 French Open. After Lorenzo Musetti won the first set, the Spaniard turned the match around and recorded a 3:1 victory. In their most recent hard court duel, which dates back to the round of 16 at the 2024 Miami Masters, Carlitos even recorded a clean 2:0 victory (6:3 and 6:3).
Carlos Alcaraz – Lorenzo Musetti Tip
The betting odds from the best bookmakers clearly and unambiguously favor Carlos Alcaraz against Lorenzo Musetti, with the Spaniard’s victory priced at just 1.15 in the practical Bet-at-home app. However, there is not much to argue against this, even though the world number one recently had some slight problems with Taylor Fritz and was on court for two hours and 50 minutes. Nevertheless, Carlitos only lost one service game in that match, which could be half the battle against the Italian, who serves much more tamely than Taylor Fritz and against whom the Spaniard is likely to get into the return game much more often.
If, after the afternoon match, Musetti needs a straight 2-0 win to advance, losing a set could completely pull the plug on him. This makes the tip for Carlos Alcaraz against Lorenzo Musetti all the more logical, with the Spaniard celebrating a straight 2-0 victory to advance to the semifinals and retain his top position in the ATP world rankings into the new year, regardless of how the tournament progresses. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.50 for a 2-0 win for Carlitos, which we are betting on with five out of ten units.
