Will Serbia’s World Cup dream end at Wembley?
With two match days to go, the English national soccer team has secured its ticket to the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Thanks to a seven-point lead over Albania, Tuchel’s team has already secured the group victory. Nevertheless, the two remaining games are still important, as they will first face Serbia and then Albania – the two teams that are in a direct battle for second place, which qualifies them for the World Cup playoffs.
However, with the “Orlovi” (The Eagles) currently one point behind their rivals from Albania, they have their backs against the wall and will probably need to bet on an away win in Thursday evening’s match between England and Serbia at the venerable Wembley Stadium to keep their hopes of participating in next year’s World Cup alive.
However, if the more likely prediction of a home win for the “Three Lions” between England and Serbia comes true, the Albanians would even have the chance to pull away and secure second place in Group K with a win in the parallel match in Andorra.
Just how difficult it will be for the players with the white double-headed eagle on their crest is underlined by the fact that England have won all six of their qualifying games so far without conceding a single goal. In contrast, Serbia has fallen far short of its own expectations in this qualifying campaign, winning only the supposedly easy games against Andorra (twice) and Latvia, and failing to score a single goal in a total of 270 minutes of play against its direct rivals Albania (twice) and England.
Where is the world number 36, which has made its mark in three of four World Cup finals since independence, supposed to find the confidence and optimism for a happy ending?
This is where new head coach Veljko Paunovic comes in, who was introduced about a week ago as the successor to the legendary Dragan Stojkovic, who resigned. However, the association officials emphasized that the former professional would not be judged on the results of the first two games and that his long-term future would be evaluated independently of a possible failure to qualify for the World Cup.
Paunovic once led the Serbian U20 national team to the World Cup title (2015) and achieved promotion to La Liga with Real Oviedo last season, but was relieved of his duties there in mid-October. Now he is tasked with resolving the many open conflicts within the national team and forming a collective that once again lives up to its high ambitions. However, I consider it rather unlikely that this will succeed right away with one of the 2026 World Cup favorites, and therefore recommend primarily betting on a good result for the home team ahead of the England vs. Serbia qualifying match.
For the double result HT1/FT1, i.e., a home win including a half-time lead, the Bet365 app offers a solid 1.80 at the top. Nine of England’s last 13 goals were scored before halftime. In six of eight international matches under Thomas Tuchel, such a bet would have paid off, including five of the six qualifying matches played. Bet365 is even offering 2.00 for the next win without conceding a goal.
England – Serbia Head-to-head record
The only two meetings between these national teams took place in the last year and a half. In the run-up to the 2024 European Championship, England won their preliminary round match 1-0. The first leg of the current World Cup qualifier even ended 5-0 for the Three Lions, who were largely responsible for Dragan Stojkovic’s aforementioned resignation. Incidentally, Harry Kane scored the 1-0 for his team at the beginning of September. If the Bayern star scores the first goal of the game again on Thursday evening, betting odds of 4.00 are on offer before the kickoff of England vs. Serbia, which certainly represent good value.
England – Serbia Tip
With Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, Thomas Tuchel has brought two stars back into his squad who have recently been in strong form at their clubs, further enhancing the already abundant quality in the English squad. The German coach is keen to maintain the momentum of the last international matches and improve his own statistics.
All six competitive games have been won. Including friendlies, the men from the island have seven wins from eight games under Tuchel. All seven wins were achieved without conceding a goal!
Although the home game against Serbia is no longer significant for the hosts, I expect them to take advantage of the unrest among the visitors. The “Orlovi” have now presented a new coach, but their chances of qualifying for the World Cup have been minimal since October. So I’m leaning towards the “Three Lions” again. I recommend betting on HT1/FT1 between England and Serbia at 1.80 at Bet365. I’m betting five out of a possible ten units.
