Will FAA’s serve also shake Alcaraz?

From a German perspective, we would have liked to see Alexander Zverev face Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals, but the Hamburg native lost his decisive group match against Félix Auger-Aliassime on Friday evening and will therefore have to return home after the preliminary round.

His Canadian opponent, on the other hand, who can be described as a positive surprise at the ATP Finals in Turin so far, will continue on. Thanks to two wins from three matches, the 25-year-old can continue to dream of a major coup in his debut at the unofficial tennis world championship. However, it is more likely that the prediction of a victory for the six-time Grand Slam winner from Spain will come true in the second semifinal between Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime on Saturday evening.

Carlos Alcaraz won all three of his preliminary round matches, but was only really challenged once. Against Taylor Fritz, the current world number two had to go the full distance, i.e., three sets. Against Musetti and de Minaur, he won in straight sets. Throughout the tournament, the 22-year-old has been his usual courageous and aggressive self, but at times he has also been unfocused.

Sixteen break points conceded in three matches are impressive proof of this. With Auger-Aliassime, an outstanding server who has already hit 29 aces on the increasingly fast hard court in the Turin arena, waiting on Saturday evening, it could be a more competitive duel than the Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime odds currently suggest.

In fact, ahead of the second semifinal between Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime, my prediction is that the favored Spaniard will not win in two sets.

Also interesting are the Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime betting odds that there will be at least one tiebreak. The serving power of the 1.93-meter-tall right-hander from Canada, who is coached by Toni Nadal, Rafa’s uncle, has already been mentioned. He has won 17 of his 21 indoor matches this season and most recently advanced to the semifinals at the US Open. In addition, there are fewer breaks on indoor hard courts than on outdoor courts anyway. Both players have also had to go to a set decider twice.

Carlos Alcaraz – Félix Auger-Aliassime Head-to-head record

The two players have played seven matches against each other so far. Alcaraz leads the H2H by a narrow margin with four wins and three losses. However, these four wins all came in the last four head-to-head matches. Alcaraz did not drop a single set in those matches. Nevertheless, the last meeting was 15 months ago.

It should also be noted that both matches were played on indoor hard courts at the FAA. I don’t think the 25-year-old Canadian is without a chance. Nevertheless, he will need to have a great day to beat the world number two, who should have the advantage in the rallies if he can get a decent return on FAA’s serve.

Carlos Alcaraz – Félix Auger-Aliassime Tip

There are many indications that the 2025 tennis season will once again end with the usual final between the two best players in the world. Under normal circumstances, Jannik Sinner should not slip up against Alex de Minaur at noon, and Carlos Alcaraz is also considered the clear favorite against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

However, I see the potential for a surprise, especially in the second match. Why? Because the Canadian has nothing to lose, has shown great nerves of steel in tight situations so far, and has served almost 30 aces. Auger-Aliassime has also won both of his previous direct duels against his upcoming opponent indoors on hard court.

On the one hand, I believe that the underdog will win at least one set, and on the other hand, I recommend betting on at least one tiebreak in the match before the Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime duel. The court in Turin is getting faster and faster. This means that servers have an increasingly better chance of establishing control in the point with good first serves. Although the six-time Grand Slam winner from Murcia is a very good return player, it will also be difficult for him to break FAA. At least one set could therefore go to 13 games.