Will Carlitos knock Sextner off the throne?
The 2025 ATP Finals have their dream final, and on Sunday evening at the Palasport Olimpico, the rivalry between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will enter its 16th round. While the South Tyrolean goes into this final as the defending champion and is currently unbeaten in 30 singles matches on indoor hard courts, the Spaniard leads the head-to-head comparison with ten wins from 15 meetings and beat the Sextner in three of the four duels in the 2025 season.
Against this backdrop, we think it’s entirely possible that Carlos Alcaraz will defeat Jannik Sinner, with Carlitos dethroning the Italian in front of his home crowd and crowning himself the unofficial world champion for the first time in his career.
From a mathematical point of view, it makes perfect sense to go with the Spaniard. After all, a 50:50 duel is to be expected between the two athletes, in which the form on the day will also play a decisive role. Because the Bet365 app is offering odds of 2.37 for a Carlos Alcaraz victory, which suggests a probability of just 42.2 percent, the only value in betting on Carlitos is if you assume a 50 percent chance of victory.
However, the man from Murcia should not be given less than 50 percent. Jannik Sinner’s streak on indoor hard courts is certainly impressive. However, Carlitos has won his only match against the player from Sesto on this surface to date and has proven that he has what it takes to take a service game off the South Tyrolean for the first time in the tournament – something that Alexander Zverev and, most recently, Alex de Minaur failed to do in the semifinals, even though the Australian put in one of his best performances of the year in the first set and even led 40-0 on the Italian’s serve.
Carlos Alcaraz – Jannik Sinner Head-to-head record
Head to head: 10:5
The paths of these two exceptional players have crossed 15 times already – including four major finals in 2025 alone. In ten of the 15 matches, Carlos Alcaraz prevailed over Jannik Sinner, whom he defeated 3:2 in this year’s French Open final after an epic comeback from a 0:2 deficit. The player from Sesto took his revenge just five weeks later in the final of the Wimbledon Championships with a 3:1 comeback victory.
Carlos Alcaraz – Jannik Sinner Tip
In the duel between the two absolute high-flyers of the ATP Tour, who are currently unbeatable, nuances are likely to decide the outcome. We therefore assume that both have about a 50 percent chance of winning, which is why our prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner is that the Spaniard will win, even though he is rated significantly lower by the best bookmakers.
There is therefore no value to be found in betting on the favorite, because although the Italian local hero is unbeaten in 30 matches on indoor hard courts and is defending his title in Turin, he has lost his only match on indoor hard courts against Carlitos, against whom he also trails 5-10 in head-to-head matches.
For purely mathematical reasons, we therefore recommend betting on the 22-year-old Spaniard to win the tournament, who also won more titles than his Italian opponent in the 2025 calendar year because he beat the Sesto player in three of four encounters, all of which were finals.
For the Spaniard to defeat the Italian and knock him off his throne, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner betting odds of 2.37 are available at Bet365, which we are betting on with four out of ten units.
