Will the downward spiral of the Rheinhessen continue?
1. FSV Mainz 05 put in a convincing performance in the Conference League before the international break, even beating ACF Fiorentina 2-1. However, things are simply not going well for the Rheinhessen in the Bundesliga, who spent the international break in a direct relegation spot and have not won a Bundesliga home game in ten attempts (six draws, four defeats). Our tendency for Mainz vs. Hoffenheim is therefore to tip the in-form visitors, who have won four Bundesliga games in a row for the first time since September 2023.
The FSV are facing two problems at once. On the one hand, Bo Henriksen’s players are the weakest home team in the top flight of German soccer with only one point out of a possible 15, and they have the weakest home defense with only four goals scored. On the other hand, the Red and Whites have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 21 Bundesliga games.
Although Mainz’s record against Hoffenheim must be taken into account in the prediction, with Mainz winning all of their last four home games against Hoffenheim, we assume that the offense will once again struggle. Therefore, the best value for us is to bet that Mainz will score a maximum of one goal.
In any case, we do not expect a goal fest at the Mewa Arena, where there have been just 13 goals in total (4:9) in five Bundesliga home games, averaging 2.6 goals per league game. Only Hamburg (2.4 goals) and Dortmund (1.75) have seen fewer goals. So if you’re looking for higher odds on Mainz vs. Hoffenheim, you could alternatively bet on a maximum of two goals being scored in this match, for which Bet365 is offering odds of 2.25.
Mainz vs. Hoffenheim AI prediction
AI believes that the international break has done Mainz good, as the AI prediction for Mainz vs. Hoffenheim is a home win for the Red and Whites. Bet365 is offering odds of 2.50 for tip 1, which implies a probability of exactly 40 percent. The AI, on the other hand, puts the Rhine-Hessians’ chances of winning at 43.7 percent. This is significantly higher and thus generates a positive expected value.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
1. FSV Mainz 05 is still searching for form and hopes to turn things around after the international break against a favorite opponent. The Rheinhessen have won four home games in a row against TSG with a total goal difference of 9:1. Overall, only two of the last ten Bundesliga duels against the Kraichgauers have been lost (six wins, two draws).
At the same time, however, the current situation is delicate. Only five points have been recorded after ten games, matching the negative start to 2020/21. The Nullfünfer have also been winless in their last six Bundesliga games (one draw, five defeats). During this period, only St. Pauli collected fewer points (none at all). At home, it’s even a new negative record: only one point from the first five home games. Across the season, that makes it ten Bundesliga home games without a win (six draws, four defeats).
Mainz just can’t keep a clean sheet
A big problem is their defensive vulnerability. The team, led by the much-criticized Bo Henriksen, has now gone 21 Bundesliga games without a clean sheet, while their offense has struggled, especially at home, as evidenced by their four home goals (the lowest in the league). Both teams press early (PPDA: Mainz second lowest at 10.2; Hoffenheim league minimum at 9.8).
However, if Mainz can get past Hoffenheim’s first wave of pressing and switch quickly in the final third, a home win is possible despite their recent poor form. In any case, AI lady BETSiE’s tip for Mainz vs. Hoffenheim is that the Red and Whites will now get themselves out of the mire, with the omens looking good.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
Things are going extremely well for TSG Hoffenheim at the moment. They have won four Bundesliga games in a row (the only team to have achieved the maximum haul in the last four matchdays). Should they secure a fifth win at the Mewa Arena, they would equal the club record set in 2020. With 19 points after ten games, Christian Ilzer’s team is also enjoying its best start in nine years (20 points in 2016/17).
Particularly impressive: Hoffenheim has 13 out of a possible 15 points away from home, making it the best away team in the Bundesliga alongside Bayern. Only Bayern has been undefeated away from home longer (14) than the Blue and Whites (seven) in the entire league. In our opinion, the odds for tip 2 are therefore quite interesting for Mainz vs. Hoffenheim, which are set at 2.63 at Bet365. After all, TSG has scored in each of its last nine Bundesliga away games and has even scored three goals in four consecutive games. Only Leipzig and Leverkusen have also scored twelve goals in the last four matchdays.
Will Hoffenheim score in Mainz for the first time since 2020?
Christian Ilzer’s team sets the tone against the ball with the lowest PPDA (9.8) in the league. Oliver Baumann, who recently played his part in Germany’s qualification for the 2026 World Cup on Monday evening, is also set to make his 500th Bundesliga appearance. Since May 2010, the veteran has missed only 22 games.
Grischa Prömel has also been impressive recently, scoring twice in a row and contributing to a goal every 65 minutes (only Harry Kane has needed less time per goal contribution this season). The catch: Mainz have won only two of their last ten games against Hoffenheim and have lost four away games in a row at the Bruchweg, with the Kraichgauers failing to score in three of their last four away games at the Mewa Arena. To get three points, they will therefore need to be consistent in their defensive coverage behind the press and show their usual efficiency in the first transition into the box.
Mainz – Hoffenheim Head-to-head record
Head to head: 15 – 9 – 10
A total of 34 matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with 1. FSV Mainz 05 leading the head-to-head record with 15 wins. The Nullfünfer lost their last match against TSG Hoffenheim 2-0 away in Kraichgau. However, it was only one of two defeats in the last ten Bundesliga games against the Sinsheimers (six wins, two draws). The Rheinhessen have won their last four home games against the Blue and Whites with a total score of 9:1.
Mainz – Hoffenheim Tip
Overall, the Bet365 app shows balanced betting odds for Mainz vs. Hoffenheim, which underscores that the match could potentially go either way despite the Red-Whites’ poor form. The Nullfünfer just showed against Fiorentina that they can do it. And in general, their performances have been much better recently than their points tally in the Bundesliga would suggest, which is why the club’s management stuck with Bo Henriksen, even though the international break would have been the last really good time for a change of coach before the winter break. FSV have also won their last four Bundesliga home games against TSG, so a turnaround is entirely possible, even though Sinsheim are coming to the Mewa Arena as the best away team in the Bundesliga.
In our opinion, it is therefore almost impossible to predict the outcome of the Mainz vs. Hoffenheim match, although the sober AI argues from a mathematical point of view in favor of a home win for Mainz. However, since Burkardt’s departure, FSV have repeatedly proved too weak in front of goal, as evidenced by their mere four home goals from five home games (the lowest in the league).
We therefore recommend betting on Mainz scoring a maximum of one home goal against TSG, for which Bet365 offers odds of 1.69, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.
