Nothing to gain for the Black Forest team in good form?

SC Freiburg are still “only” tenth in the Bundesliga after a cautious start to the season. In fact, however, the in-form Black Forest team have lost only one of their last 13 competitive games (seven wins, five draws), which is why the tip for Bayern against Freiburg to win points should not be dismissed too lightly. However, the record clearly speaks against this. The Breisgauers have only ever won once at the German record champions in the DFB Cup. In 25 Bundesliga away games at FCB, the Sport-Club has remained completely winless (three draws, 22 defeats).

Another problem is that the Black Forest team has struggled to score goals, netting only four in five Bundesliga away games. But on the plus side, they have conceded only six goals on the road. Only Bayern and Gladbach (five each) have conceded fewer goals away from home in the league. Although Munich’s offense is one of the strongest in Europe, the Sport-Club certainly has the means to avoid being overwhelmed on the Isar. We therefore find the match combo prediction for Bayern vs. Freiburg very interesting, with a tip for a home win for the Reds with under 4.5 goals.

It should be noted that Kompany’s team has scored twice in each of its last 18 Bundesliga games in a row. However, SC Freiburg has kept a clean sheet in three of its five Bundesliga away games in the 2025/26 season. As this has sometimes been at the expense of their own attacking power, an alternative option for Bayern vs. Freiburg would be to bet on the Asian line of under 4.0 goals in the game at odds of 1.54 at Winamax.

Bayern vs. Freiburg AI prediction

AI basically agrees with our assessment that, given Freiburg’s rock-solid defense, there is unlikely to be an unconditional goal fest on the Isar. The AI prediction for Bayern vs. Freiburg is for under 3.5 goals, for which odds of 1.90 are listed in the Interwetten app. This implies a probability of 52.6 percent. AI, on the other hand, assumes a probability of 55.5 percent that there will be a maximum of three goals. This is almost exactly three percent higher, thus creating a positive expected value.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Munich’s previously flawless record suffered a tiny blemish shortly before the international break when they failed to win a competitive match for the first time in the 2025/26 season, drawing 2-2 away at 1. FC Union Berlin. Nevertheless, after ten matchdays, the men from the Isar lead the table comfortably with 28 out of a possible 30 points and recently defeated defending champions PSG 2-1 away in the Champions League.

The national players also enjoyed a successful international break, so there is nothing standing in the way of another run in the Bundesliga. After all, they now face a favorite opponent. The top betting providers are also giving Bayern such clear odds against Freiburg because FCB has never lost to the Black Forest team in 25 Bundesliga home games (22 wins, three draws).

Bayern struggled against Freiburg last season

Although the German record champions are the strongest offensive team in the Bundesliga, have scored at least two goals in each of their last 18 Bundesliga games, and have already scored 20 goals in five Bundesliga home games (an average of four per home game), we do not expect a goal fest. After all, the visitors from Breisgau not only defend strongly in general, but they also know how to keep FCB at bay. Last season, Munich managed just 19 shots in the home and away games against Sport-Club – fewer than against any other Bundesliga team.

In Vincent Kompany’s team’s extremely dominant and successful play so far, there are also two weak points that the Breisgauers could exploit. On the one hand, 67 percent of all Bundesliga goals conceded by Bayern came from set pieces. And secondly, 67 percent of all goals conceded came in the final quarter of an hour.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

SC Freiburg lost only one of their last 13 competitive games (seven wins, five draws) and went into the international break in solid form despite a rather sobering tenth place in the table. In the same period, only RB Leipzig (one defeat in nine) and Bayern (none in 13) remained similarly stable among the Bundesliga clubs.

In away games this Bundesliga season, they have already recorded three clean sheets – joint best in the league with Leipzig and Dortmund. At the same time, they have recently struggled to score away from home: for the first time since September/October 2023, Freiburg have failed to score in three consecutive Bundesliga away games. The last time they had a longer streak was in March/April 2018 (four). The problem is that SCF have the second-fewest shots per game in the league (11.3). And now, of all times, they face Bayern, who allow only 8.7 attempts per game…

Freiburg and set pieces

Nevertheless, Julian Schuster’s team also has a weapon that should make Bayern hesitate when betting on a home win for the record champions against Freiburg. We’re talking about set pieces. An impressive 54 percent of all Bundesliga goals in the 2025/26 season were scored by the Black Forest team from set pieces – precisely the discipline in which Munich were vulnerable.

Admittedly, given the extremely poor away record on the Isar, a number of factors have to come together. However, if the Sport-Club puts in a solid team performance on the pitch and then perhaps strikes with a set piece, the Europa League participant, who just before the international break impressed with a 3-1 away win at OGC Nice, could definitely cause problems for the German record champions.

Bayern – Freiburg Head-to-head record

Head to head: 37 – 10 – 5

The two teams have played each other 52 times in competitive matches so far, with FC Bayern Munich leading the head-to-head record quite clearly with 37 wins. Not only did the Reds take all six points against SC Freiburg last season, they have also lost only one of their 26 home games against the Black Forest club (22 wins, three draws). Since that 1-2 defeat dates back to the quarterfinals of the 2022/23 DFB Cup, it also means that the German record champions have never lost to the Sport-Club in 25 Bundesliga home games.

Bayern – Freiburg Tip

Although the Black Forest team is traveling to the Isar in good form, having lost only one of their last 13 competitive games (seven wins, five draws), we believe that Bayern’s home win against Freiburg is virtually a foregone conclusion. The question is therefore how best to play tip 1 in order to get value on the betting slip. The odds of 1.20, which we found as the top value in the Bet365 app, imply a probability of 83.3 percent, which is too high even for the record champions, despite their dominance.

Since we have found several arguments that suggest a match with not too many goals at the Allianz Arena, we are best off combining the tip for a home win for Kompany’s team with a bet on under 4.5 goals. The odds for this match combo are 1.73 for Bayern vs. Freiburg, which we are betting on at Bet-at-home with four out of ten units.