Will BVB prevail against their recent nemesis?

Not only did VfB Stuttgart take all six points against Borussia Dortmund last season, but the reigning cup winners also won all of the last five competitive matches between the two teams, thus becoming Westphalia’s nemesis once again. By way of comparison, the Swabians had previously recorded five wins in a total of 33 encounters. Nevertheless, our tip this time around is for Dortmund against VfB Stuttgart.

After all, BVB are particularly difficult to beat at home. Borussia have not lost in eight Bundesliga home games (seven wins, one draw) and, with only seven goals conceded in ten league games, have the second-best defense behind Bayern (six). Nevertheless, we are leaning towards a high-scoring match when Dortmund take on VfB Stuttgart. The Swabians not only have offensive qualities, but are also in remarkably good form when they travel to Signal Iduna Park.

Sebastian Hoeneß’s team has collected an impressive 18 out of a possible 21 points in the last seven matchdays. Only Bayern Munich has a better record in the same period (19). And yet: the only defeat in this period was suffered by the White and Reds away from home – a 3-1 loss to RB Leipzig. It was already their third Bundesliga away defeat of the 2025/26 season, which makes it extremely tricky to pick a winner in this duel.

In what is likely to be a high-scoring match, we expect a lot of action, especially in the second half, which is why we see the best value in betting on over 1.5 goals being scored in the second half. Bet365 offers odds of 1.69 for Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart.

Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart Prediction AI

Basically, AI also expects goals in this match. The expected goals value calculated by the supercomputer for BVB is 1.83, compared to 1.13 for Stuttgart. Combined, this gives a total of 2.96, which suggests three goals. From a mathematical point of view, the AI sees the greatest value in the Asian line at under 3.0 goals. For this Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart AI prediction, the Bet365 app lists odds of 1.96, suggesting a 51 percent probability of occurrence.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund has 21 points after ten Bundesliga games (six wins, three draws, one defeat) – five more than at the same point last season. Overall, it is their best start since 2021/22, which they hope to build on after the international break, which was somewhat unsettled by the controversy surrounding Karim Adeyemi.

The defense is performing at its best. Seven goals conceded is BVB’s lowest tally after ten games since 2002/03. Six clean sheets is even a club record at this stage of the season. In addition, the Westphalians are unbeaten at home in eight Bundesliga games (seven wins, one draw). Only Bayern currently has a longer streak.

Will Dortmund end their losing streak thanks to Guirassy?

However, there is a striking trend in the head-to-head record: Stuttgart have won their last five competitive games against Dortmund – as many as in the previous 33 encounters combined. All the more reason for a former Stuttgart player to ensure that this dry spell comes to an end on Saturday. We are, of course, talking about Serhou Guirassy, who clearly stands out in Borussia’s attack.

The goal-getter has scored 45 competitive goals in 65 appearances in the black and yellow jersey, making him even more efficient than he was during his already successful time at Stuttgart (44 in 58). He has scored once against his former club in the Bundesliga so far…

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

After ten Bundesliga games, VfB Stuttgart also has 21 points, which is the best start since the 2006/07 championship season (also achieved in the 2023/24 runner-up season). The form curve shows six wins from the last seven Bundesliga games (one defeat). Only Bayern have picked up more points since the start of the fourth matchday.

Only the last away game in Leipzig was lost 1-3, marking the third away defeat in the fifth away game of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season. In addition, there were also defeats away from home in the Europa League, both at FC Basel (0-2) and Fenerbahce (0-1). Against this backdrop, despite the Hoeneß eleven’s strong form, any prediction of another point for the Swabians at Dortmund against VfB Stuttgart should be treated with extreme caution.

VfB Stuttgart with a good balance between defense and offense

Nevertheless, it should be noted that the White-Reds have the right balance. Four clean sheets in the first ten matchdays underline their defensive strength, while offensively Deniz Undav has finally overcome his slump and is now back in scoring mode. He recently scored two Bundesliga braces in a row. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, he has been directly involved in a goal every 106 minutes (52 in 5496 minutes) across all competitions – the best record among all German players in the five top European leagues.

Angelo Stiller, who was recently left out of Julian Nagelsmann’s squad, recorded his third Bundesliga assist of the season and is now level with Jamie Leweling in the club’s internal rankings. In the 2025 calendar year, only Michael Olise (13) and Andrej Kramarić (10) have more Bundesliga assists, while Stiller is level with Dortmund’s Pascal Groß (9).

Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head record

Head to head: 48 – 25 – 48

A total of 121 matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and the resulting record is now completely balanced. With 25 draws, both teams have won 48 times each, with VfB Stuttgart evening up the record last season. The Swabians won five competitive games in a row against BVB, picking up a full six points against the Westphalians in two consecutive seasons.

Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart Tip

There are arguments to be made for both teams, which makes it very difficult to predict the outcome of the match between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart. We would therefore steer clear of the three-way system, even though we are leaning slightly towards the Westphalians. After all, the Swabians have already lost three of their five Bundesliga away games, in which they have nevertheless scored eight goals. In any case, the White and Reds have offensive qualities that could be a factor at Signal Iduna Park, despite BVB’s very stable defense so far.

We expect a match with a tendency toward high scoring, in which two teams in good form will both be striving for victory. The second half in particular could be very action-packed, which is why we see the greatest value in betting on over 1.5 goals being scored in the second half.

Bet365 is offering odds of 1.69 for at least two goals in the second half of Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.