Will FC St. Pauli’s free fall continue?

In the 2025 calendar year, FC St. Pauli and Union Berlin are the two teams in the German top flight with the most goalless draws. The Kiezkickers have failed to score in 14 Bundesliga games, while the Eisernen have also come away empty-handed 13 times. In the current season, too, these teams, which tend to be conservative in their approach, are still far from being eye-catching in terms of aesthetic, courageous attacking soccer. Measured by their xG season values, two of the three most harmless first division teams are facing each other in a direct duel. In advance, therefore, the tip for a low-scoring 90 minutes between St. Pauli and Union Berlin definitely catches the eye.

Based on recent results, the visitors from Köpenick have a slight advantage. Coach Steffen Baumgart’s team has had a solid season so far, managing to pull five points clear of the relegation zone and earning a remarkable draw at home against FC Bayern two weeks ago. The “Boys in Brown” can only dream of such success at the moment. Hamburg have lost seven Bundesliga games in a row. Consequently, I’m staying away from a St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin prediction.

Combining the two approaches from the first two paragraphs results in an appealing match combo that targets, for example, the Ironers winning points in conjunction with under goals.

St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin prediction AI

This is underlined on the one hand by the closely matched probabilities of victory and on the other hand by the almost identical xG values (1.14 vs. 1.05). The artificial intelligence sees the home team as having a very slight advantage, although the St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin AI prediction still includes value in an away win. The 2.95 currently offered by Interwetten for the visitors to win is therefore definitely worth considering.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

FC St. Pauli has never had a worse start to a Bundesliga season than in 2025/26. Seven points are currently only enough for third from bottom. Seven of the ten matches played so far have been lost. Considering that all seven points were earned in the first three matchdays, it quickly becomes clear that the Hamburg team has been lacking in many areas recently – including, in many phases, the ability to compete in the German top flight.

St. Pauli is in free fall

In their last home game at Millerntor in particular, the “Boys in Brown” suffered a sporting humiliation against Borussia Mönchengladbach, who had been winless until then, losing 0-4. Two weeks ago, Blessin’s team showed a decent reaction, but still lost 2-1 in Freiburg. After seven consecutive Bundesliga defeats, their confidence has reached a low point. In the form table for the last five matchdays, the Kiezkickers are bottom of the table with no points and a goal difference of 1-12.

Given that the defense, which performed so well last year, is no longer operating at the same level and has conceded 13 goals in five home games alone, the coaching team and, logically, the fans are very concerned. Offensively, the North Germans have also failed to score in five of their last seven league games. So there are problems at both ends of the pitch. In view of this, I cannot imagine St. Pauli and Union Berlin making a breakthrough at home.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

The overall mood at FC Union Berlin is much more positive, bearing the clear hallmarks of coach Steffen Baumgart. The passionate coach has revived the basic virtues that once took the Iron Men to the Champions League under Urs Fischer.

A high willingness to run, immense intensity against the ball, and very dangerous set pieces characterize the DNA of the Köpenick team, which was the first team this season to take points off FC Bayern. Nevertheless, even more would have been possible in the 2-2 draw two weeks ago at the Alte Försterei due to the late goal conceded.

Will set pieces make the difference again for Union Berlin?

Danilho Doekhi scored twice against the undisputed leaders and now has four goals to his name this season as a defender. Considering his good form and the really well-taken set pieces, I think it’s a serious option to put the odds on a Doekhi goal on the betting slip again before St. Pauli’s game against Union Berlin.

In general, I don’t see the visitors from the capital as underdogs at all. Union have five more points to their name, have conceded a maximum of one goal in three of their last four Bundesliga matches, and simply have a completely different self-image on the pitch than the home side. The Ironers will not change their approach on the Elbe either. 32% possession is the lowest of any club in Europe’s top five leagues. Transition play is their trump card, with defensive stability as their foundation. I expect that this will also be enough at the Millerntor to take home one or even three points.

St. Pauli – Union Berlin Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

For the head-to-head comparison, only the two most recent matches from last season are really relevant. In both the home and away games, the respective home team came out on top. Union won 1-0, while St. Pauli celebrated their biggest home win in Bundesliga history in January of this year.

Now, however, the cards are being reshuffled. Nevertheless, it is striking that, looking back at the last five encounters, four of them would have gone over 2.5. Anyone who wants to bet on a surprisingly high-scoring match this time around can take advantage of attractive St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin betting odds.

St. Pauli – Union Berlin Tip

The 11th matchday in the Bundesliga will end late on Sunday afternoon with St. Pauli’s home game against Union Berlin. Fans of sophisticated attacking soccer are unlikely to get their money’s worth in this match. St. Pauli has only scored nine goals so far this season. Union also defines itself more by its transitions and dangerous set pieces than by any particular playing style with the ball. In my opinion, therefore, not many goals are to be expected. Three goals in 90 minutes should be the maximum.

Apart from that, I tend to bet on the visitors from the capital. The Iron are in much better form, are having a clearly stronger season, and are by no means weaker in terms of quality. The Boys in Brown have suffered seven defeats in a row, some of which were particularly worrying. My St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin tip is therefore X2 & Under 3.5.