Is Almaty the weakest team in the Champions League?
For the first time in a long time, a Kazakh club is back in the Champions League group stage. Almaty is one of four newcomers to the Champions League and has already managed to secure a point ahead of the FC Copenhagen vs. Almaty tip. However, the 0-0 draw against Pafos required an extremely early numerical advantage and poor finishing from their opponents.
In our FC Copenhagen vs. Almaty prediction, we expect the Danish hosts to be much more efficient. Jacob Neestrup has been able to rely on his team’s home strength so far, with the “Byens Hold” scoring at least twice in both of their previous CL home games.
The visitors are by far the easternmost participants ever to have taken part in the Champions League. Only 300 kilometers separate their home arena in Almaty from the Chinese border. This week, they travel to Denmark to face the reigning Danish champions and cup winners.
While the Kazakhs are regularly overwhelmed by the enormous level of competition in the Champions League, they have managed to win the national championship again. On the last matchday, a 1-1 draw against their closest rivals FC Astana was enough to defend their title.
FC Copenhagen vs. Almaty AI prediction
Our artificial intelligence BETSiE also gives the hosts a big advantage in its FC Copenhagen – Almaty AI prediction. A free bet puts the risk/reward ratio for “FC Copenhagen Over 2.5 Goals” in a comfortable range.
FC Copenhagen – Statistics & Current Form
Last weekend, the “Loverne” celebrated an extremely important victory. In a direct duel with another title contender, the 16-time Danish champions won 1-0 against Bröndby IF thanks to a penalty goal from Jordan Larsson in the 72nd minute.
It was a small relief after two consecutive competitive defeats, which the reigning Danish double winners had ended without scoring (0-2 vs. Vejle, 0-4 vs. Tottenham). The hosts are therefore in good spirits as they prepare for their upcoming home game against the Kazakh representatives.
The “Byens Hold” have yet to win a game in this season’s Champions League, but there have been several interesting encounters. In the match against Leverkusen, Neestrup’s team only gave up the lead late in the game (2-2), and against Dortmund, the spectators were entertained with six goals during the game (2-4 defeat).
Fast play down the wings is the credo at FC Copenhagen
The hosts play relatively straightforward football in their 4-4-2 system, pushing forward via the wings. Their ball sequences in the Champions League have been fairly short on average (7.72 seconds) and scenes with ten or more passes in build-up play have been rare (21).
However, that hasn’t stopped Loverne from scoring an average of 2.0 goals per Champions League home game this season. At home, Neestrup’s protégés scored more than twice as many expected goals (2.7 xG) as they did away (1.3 xG) – with the same number of games played.
The difference in expected goals conceded is just as clear. At home, the Danes conceded only 2.9 expected goals. Away from their home ground at Parken Stadium, however, the fourth-placed team in the Danish Superligaen conceded 5.1 expected goals.
Almaty – Statistics & current form
The visitors are gathering many new impressions and experiencing unfamiliar moments this season. In addition to their first participation in the Champions League group stage, head coach Rafael Urazbakhtin’s protégés celebrated the first title defense in the club’s history a few weeks ago.
The draw on the last matchday in a direct duel with pursuers and record champions FC Astana was enough to secure a two-point lead over the finish line. Compared to the previous season, when Kairat Almaty had been one point ahead, this was a real cushion.
The visitors, on the other hand, still have to get used to the level of play in the top flight. The Kazakh representative has been clearly inferior in every match so far and has built up the weakest expected goal difference of all 36 Champions League participants (-8.9 xGD).
Around the world – travel chaos for Kairat Almaty
The travel demands for Almaty and their opponents are enormous. By the end of the league phase, Kairat Almaty and their opponents will have traveled a total of 42,583 kilometers – a distance longer than the circumference of the Earth (40,075 kilometers).
The return journey could prove unpleasant for the five-time Kazakh champions during the week. According to our FC Copenhagen vs. Almaty prediction, the visitors are facing their fourth defeat in their fifth CL game. The CL newcomers simply lack the level required for the premier class. Kairat Almaty has conceded the second-highest number of expected goals (11.48 xGA) and scored the second-fewest expected goals (2.56 xG). In addition, the average quality of their own finishes is weaker than that of any other Champions League participant (0.05 xG).
FC Copenhagen – Almaty Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Of course, these two teams are facing each other for the first time in a competitive match. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the visitors have already played two matches against Danish teams. Both took place in the Europa League qualifiers against Esbjerg (1-1, 0-1), but are completely irrelevant for the upcoming match.
FC Copenhagen – Almaty Tip
Two of the least successful teams in the current Champions League group stage will face each other at Parken Stadium. Copenhagen has conceded at least two goals in six consecutive CL games. This streak will most likely come to a temporary end this week.
Kairat Almaty has hardly been dangerous in front of the opponent’s goal so far and has only fired 13 shots at the opponent’s goal – almost all of them completely harmless and rated at an average of 0.05 xG per shot. In return, the Kazakh participant allowed 0.16 expected goals per shot.
Copenhagen will be eager to secure their first Champions League win of the current season at their home stadium, after it looked like they would get three points in their home game against Leverkusen for a long time. This time, the conditions and the difference in quality should make a home win possible.
