Will Hoffenheim reach for the European spots?

On Saturday afternoon, we can look forward to the clash between TSG Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg. TSG are currently in good form and, with 20 points after eleven matchdays, have their sights set on Europe – they are currently in seventh place, level on points with SGE in sixth. FCA took a step away from the relegation battle with a 1-0 win over HSV on the last matchday and are now in 13th place in the table with ten points. Is it worth betting on lots of goals between Hoffenheim and Augsburg?

Christian Ilzer’s team is currently in top form and has now gone five league games unbeaten, winning the last four. Their form at home has also improved recently – after three home defeats, they have won their last two games. Goals are always guaranteed with the Kraichgauers: they have scored 18 goals in five home games, with at least four goals scored in four of those games. This trend is also reflected in the historical comparison against Augsburg – in six of the last eight games, both teams scored and there were over three goals in the game. It is only logical that we are once again betting on both teams scoring and over three goals in the rematch between Hoffenheim and Augsburg.

Augsburg, on the other hand, ended their four-game losing streak on the last matchday and secured their third win of the season. However, Sandro Wagner’s team has been winless in four league games away from home – but goals are also inevitable at FCA. Both teams scored in each of their five away games, with over 2.5 goals scored four times – these figures naturally support our Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg prediction.

Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg Prediction AI

According to our Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg AI prediction, the hosts are the clear favorites in this game with a probability of winning of over 50%. Furthermore, our AI generally agrees with the Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg betting odds offered by the bookmakers, so there is no one tip that promises clear value. The greatest consensus is on the tip that neither team will score, at around 43%. This tip is rated at odds of 2.30 at Interwetten, but we consider it unlikely.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

TSG Hoffenheim is enjoying one of its strongest Bundesliga phases in several years. With 20 points from eleven games, the Kraichgauers are having their best season in six years; the last time they had 20 points at this stage was in the 2019/20 season. The only times they had more points after eleven games were in 2008/09 with 25 points and 2016/17 with 21 points.

The latest results also underline their good form. After four Bundesliga wins in a row, they suffered a setback with a 1-1 draw against Mainz, but Hoffenheim are now unbeaten in five league games – only FC Bayern are currently on a longer unbeaten run. The development in their own stadium is also particularly remarkable: under Christian Ilzer, TSG recently celebrated two consecutive home wins for the first time, equaling the number of wins in the first 15 Bundesliga home games under his leadership. The last time there were three consecutive home wins was at the start of the 2022/23 season, including a 1-0 win against FC Augsburg.

Augsburg as TSG’s favorite opponent

Hoffenheim is also showing impressive morale. The team has already picked up ten points after falling behind—more than any other team in the league. We are therefore once again betting on Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg odds for a deficit by betting on “1st goal by Augsburg.” At the same time, TSG has only kept a clean sheet once this season, putting them on par with Augsburg in this category. Another factor in their current strength is their intense pressing: with 154 pressing sequences, Hoffenheim has the highest number in the Bundesliga. On average, the team allows only 9.9 opponent passes outside its own defensive third before a defensive action is taken – the best PPDA value in the league.

History also speaks in Hoffenheim’s favor: TSG has won more Bundesliga games against FC Augsburg than against any other team – 15 in total, plus seven draws and six defeats. Hoffenheim have lost only one of their 14 home games against FCA, a 4-2 defeat in December 2019. In our Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg prediction, we are therefore backing another home win for Ilzer’s side.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

FC Augsburg travels with the momentum of a 1-0 win against Hamburger SV, their first clean sheet of the current season. This puts the Fuggerstadt team on a par with Hoffenheim in this statistic. Overall, only Mainz and Heidenheim have fewer clean sheets this season, namely zero.

Under coach Sandro Wagner, Augsburg could now celebrate two Bundesliga wins in a row for the first time. Away from home, however, FCA have been waiting for three points for four games: one draw and three defeats are on the books. In addition, Augsburg have not yet earned a single point after falling behind, while they themselves have already squandered eight points after taking the lead – only Wolfsburg have lost more. If you believe in a second consecutive Bundesliga win, you can secure Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg odds of 4.33 for the visitors in the Bet365 app.

Augsburg proves effective

Augsburg’s offense has been ambivalent this season. On the one hand, FCA has created the fewest big chances in the league, namely 16. On the other hand, the team has the best big chance conversion rate in the league: 56 percent of all big chances were converted. The recent upward trend is also striking, as Augsburg created seven big chances in the last two matchdays – putting FCA in fourth place in the league and almost as many chances as in the first nine matchdays combined (nine).

However, Keven Schlotterbeck, an important tackler, is missing from the squad: he received his third red card since his Bundesliga debut in February 2019 in the recent victory against HSV. Only four players have been sent off more often during this period. Among all Augsburg players with at least as many tackles, no one won a higher percentage of duels than Schlotterbeck with 57 percent. Anton Kade recently set a positive example: with his goal against HSV, he became FCA’s twelfth goalscorer this season – a league-wide high that only FC Bayern has achieved. But is this enough to confirm a prediction of an away win between Hoffenheim and Augsburg?

Hoffenheim – Augsburg Head-to-head record / H2H balance

The two clubs have met 40 times in total so far – spread across 28 Bundesliga games, two encounters in the second Bundesliga, two matches in the DFB Cup and eight games in the Regionalliga Süd between 2000 and 2008. Hoffenheim won 19 of these games, while Augsburg won twelve; nine encounters ended without a winner. The goal difference also speaks in Hoffenheim’s favor across the entire history: The Kraichgauers scored 66 goals and conceded 47.

Hoffenheim – Augsburg Tip

Hoffenheim goes into this match against FC Augsburg with momentum and as the clear favorite. TSG has won four of its last five league games and is unbeaten in five games. In addition, the Kraichgauers have won more games against FCA than any other team – they have lost only one of their 14 home games. Goals are guaranteed for both teams: in four of Sinsheim’s five home games, at least four goals were scored – in all five of Augsburg’s away games, both teams scored.

However, Sandro Wagner’s team has been very weak away from home and has now gone four games without a win. They have already dropped eight points after taking the lead and have failed to pick up a single point after falling behind – so if TSG scores first, it should be plain sailing.