A fresh start after parting ways with Bo Henriksen?
After last Sunday’s crushing 0-4 defeat in Freiburg, many experts already expected Bo Henriksen to be let go at FSV Mainz 05. On Wednesday, the club’s management actually pulled the plug and parted ways with their successful coach from last season. On Friday evening, they are hoping for the eagerly awaited turnaround, with U23 coach Benjamin Hoffmann taking over on an interim basis for the time being.
If a bet on the hosts in the Mainz vs. Gladbach match is also unsuccessful, the club from the Rhine-Hessian carnival stronghold would slide even deeper into crisis.
However, the visitors from the Rhineland are also arriving with a setback in their luggage. And of course, we’re not referring to last Friday’s goalless draw against RB Leipzig, but rather the unexpected home defeat in the round of 16 of the DFB Cup against FC St. Pauli. At least in the Bundesliga, things have been going very well for coach Eugen Polanski’s team recently. Thanks to ten points from four games, the Foals have worked their way into mid-table. The situation is quite different for FSV, who are bottom of the German top flight. Basically, the table constellation serves as an argument to base a possible Mainz vs. Gladbach prediction on the team from the Lower Rhine.
Mainz vs. Gladbach prediction AI
The unsettled home side are drawing hope from the Mainz vs. Gladbach AI prediction. The AI also sees the advantage lying with the Red and Whites. This assumption is based on the estimated probability of victory of 42.3% for FSV and the xG values, which are also in favor of the bottom team at 1.58 to 1.36. Because the odds for a win for the Rheinhessen team have now risen to 2.55, there is value to be found, according to artificial intelligence!
Mainz – Statistics & current form
FSV Mainz 05’s season so far has undoubtedly read like that of a relegated team. With only six points to their name after twelve matchdays and their last Bundesliga win two and a half months ago, they are quite rightly bottom of the table. However, there is a small glimmer of hope in the statistics, as Mainz have remained unbeaten in their last three league matches, in which they were bottom of the table.
Mainz have gone eight Bundesliga games without a win
However, there is currently little belief that last season’s sixth-placed team will continue this streak on Friday evening. Sunday’s performance at SC Freiburg (0-4) was too disappointing and the team is too unsettled after eight Bundesliga games in a row without a win (0-2-6). Eleven consecutive winless home games in Germany’s top flight also do not contribute to a general strengthening of self-confidence. The FSV has conceded at least one goal in 23 consecutive Bundesliga games.
Without regular goalkeeper Robin Zentner, who was injured in the Conference League during the embarrassing 0-1 defeat in Craiova, Romania, another piece of stability has been lost. His replacement, Lasse Rieß, has conceded twelve goals in his three appearances so far! In addition to Zentner, Mainz will also be without Paul Nebel and Dominik Kohr due to suspensions.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
What do FC Bayern, TSG Hoffenheim, and Borussia Mönchengladbach have in common? Since the beginning of November, these three clubs have recorded an impressive ten points from four Bundesliga games, the most of any of the 18 teams. In terms of goals conceded, the Foals are even in sole possession of first place. Moritz Nicolas has only had to fish the ball out of the net once in the Foals’ last four matches. It was therefore all the more surprising that the team from the Lower Rhine had to throw in the towel against St. Pauli in the DFB Cup on Tuesday evening.
Gladbach won their last two away games with a 7-0 goal difference
Just 72 hours later, Borussia are back in league action. The fact that they are playing away from home could even prove to be an advantage. After all, Gladbach won their last two Bundesliga away games without conceding a goal. In Heidenheim – also bottom of the table at the time – they celebrated a 3-0 victory, and at FC St. Pauli they even won 4-0. Polanski’s team therefore knows how to approach away games against unsettled opponents.
I therefore recommend betting on DNB 2 between Mainz and Gladbach. Betano is offering attractive odds of 2.05 for this. If you’re even considering a bet on the three-way market, you can get 2.90 for an away win at Bet-at-home. If you don’t have an account with this betting provider yet, it’s definitely worth registering with Bet-at-home.
Mainz – Gladbach Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
While the arguments in favor of FSV Mainz 05 have remained hidden so far, this changes abruptly when looking at the head-to-head record. The Rheinhessen have not lost any of their last nine encounters with the Rhinelanders. However, it is also true that five of these nine games ended in a draw. Among other things, the Nullfünfer had to settle for a draw in each of their last two home games against BMG.
Borussia last took all three points in Mainz in 2020. Stindl, Hofmann, and Ginter scored in a 3-2 win. On Friday evening, the protagonists could be Diks, Tabakovic, and Honorat. Perhaps even national team player Tim Kleindienst, who is back in contention for a starting spot.
Mainz – Gladbach Tip
In the current Bundesliga season, there are several teams that have failed to score in six of twelve matchdays. Two of them will face each other on Friday evening under the floodlights at the MEWA Arena. FSV’s home games have rarely been spectacular this season.
This time, too, there is little to suggest that the harmless Rheinhessen, who also have to do without creative player Nebel, will set off fireworks. Borussia won their last two away games in the league without conceding a goal. All in all, it is therefore worth considering betting on under goals between Mainz and Gladbach.
Furthermore, I don’t see the team from the Lower Rhine as underdogs at all. Ten points from their last four Bundesliga games meet eight winless Bundesliga matches. Twenty-three consecutive league games with at least one goal conceded are offset by three clean sheets from the last four games. I therefore see value in placing a bet on the high odds for an away win ahead of the Mainz vs. Gladbach match. Whether on the two-way market (DNB) or the three-way market. I’m betting four units on 2.05 for DNB 2.
