The return of the northern derby

Fans of Hamburger SV and SV Werder Bremen have had to wait 1379 days, but now the prestigious northern derby between the two giants is back for the first time since February 2022. Since the Bundesliga was founded, there has never been such a long period between two northern derbies, as the last duel took place in the 2nd Bundesliga.

In the upper house of German soccer, the two teams are even facing each other for the first time since February 2018. Of course, we also have a corresponding HSV vs. Werder Bremen tip for the reunion of the two teams.

Basically, we would advise against the three-way system. On the one hand, the recent record between HSV and Werder Bremen speaks in favor of a prediction for the visitors, who have lost only one of their last six northern derbies (three wins, two draws) and also recorded a 3-2 away win in their last visit to the Volksparkstadion. On the other hand, the Rothosen have won all three of their Bundesliga games at home this season, while SVW are still waiting for a win in their last four away games (two draws, two defeats). This makes it extremely difficult to predict the outcome of the game.

What is clear is that both teams are desperate to give their long-suffering fans a victory in the northern derby. Neither Hamburg, who have conceded 18 goals in twelve league games, nor Werder, who have conceded 21 goals, have been particularly impressive defensively, so we expect both sides to have their chances in this northern derby.

HSV vs. Werder Bremen Prediction AI

While we would steer clear of the three-way system for the reasons mentioned above, AI calculates the greatest value in the HSV vs. Werder Bremen match according to the AI prediction to be a tip that the Weserelf will land an away win. AI, in turn, calculates a 34.2 percent chance of victory for SVW, which results in a positive expected value.

HSV – Statistics & current form

Hamburger SV suffered a costly crash landing in their dress rehearsal in the DFB Cup against second division side Holstein Kiel during the week, but the anticipation for the northern derby remains high, especially as Merlin Polzin’s team has high hopes in front of their home crowd after recording a 2-1 home win against VfB Stuttgart last Sunday.

It was already the third win of the season for the Rothosen, who celebrated all three victories at the Volkspark. With ten points from six home games, HSV is enjoying its best Bundesliga home season since 2010/11.

HSV works hard but needs to improve its conversion rate

Our prediction that it could be a high-scoring game is supported above all by the fact that HSV has the sixth-most shots in the Bundesliga (160, like Frankfurt). However, with seven percent, the Hanseatic city team also has the lowest conversion rate. Defensively, Hamburg has allowed 181 shots on goal. Set pieces also remain a sore point. The Hanseatic city team has only scored two goals from set pieces (the lowest in the league). The Rothosen are the only Bundesliga team that has not yet scored a goal from a corner in 2025/26. In the past second division season, HSV had the most goals from corners (eleven).

Alexander Rössing-Lelesiit is unavailable after Hamburg received their fifth red card of the Bundesliga season (joint highest in the league with Mainz) – only in 1994/95 were there as many red cards in the first twelve matchdays. In the air, Tottenham loanee Luka Vuskovic continues to deliver top performances: among all players with at least 25 headed duels, he has the best success rate at 81 percent.

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

SV Werder Bremen have lost only one of their last seven Bundesliga games (three wins, three draws) and are therefore also in good form. However, that 2-0 defeat came in their last away game in Leipzig. The Green-Whites have now gone four Bundesliga games without a win on the road (two draws, two defeats) and have won only once away from home this season: 4-0 in Mönchengladbach on matchday three, when they also kept their only clean sheet in their last nine away games.

This fact also speaks in favor of our tip for goals on both sides in the match between HSV and Werder Bremen. Against promoted teams, the Weserelf have been unbeaten for six Bundesliga games, or since February 2024 (1-2 at home against Heidenheim), which is as long as their last unbeaten run of seven games in a row from 2009 to 2010.

Werder Bremen with another late surge?

Horst Steffen’s team also needs to step up its defensive game. Only Heidenheim has allowed more shots on goal (190) than the Weserelf (188) in the league. Offensively, however, their late effectiveness stands out: Bremen has scored six times in the final quarter of an hour, more than in the entire first half (five), which is why we have also selected the tip that more goals will be scored in the second half than in the first – available at AdmiralBet at odds of 2.05.

It is annoying that Niklas Stark will miss the northern derby after receiving a yellow-red card. Among others, Amos Pieper, who has the second-best header duel rate in the league (74 percent, at least 25 duels) and the best tackle rate among all players with at least 50 duels (74 percent), is expected to compensate for his absence. Incidentally, coach Horst Steffen faced HSV twelve times as a player (no goals), five of which were in Hamburg. His team failed to score in each of those games, managing only one draw and four defeats. However, as second division coach of SV Elversberg, he lost only one of four matches against Hamburg (two wins, one draw).

HSV – Werder Bremen Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 52 – 43 – 59

The prestigious northern derby between Hamburger SV and SV Werder Bremen has taken place 154 times in total, with the Green-Whites leading the head-to-head record by a narrow margin with 59 wins to the Rothosen’s 52. The last northern derby to date, on February 27, 2022 – then still in the 2nd Bundesliga – also went to SVW, who have not lost any of their last four northern derbies against HSV in the Bundesliga (two wins, two draws).

HSV – Werder Bremen Tip

Although the northern derby has been dominated by the Weserelf both overall and recently, the betting odds from the best bookmakers for HSV vs. Werder Bremen are leaning towards the Rothosen, which we find quite remarkable. After all, Hamburg just embarrassed themselves on Wednesday evening in the DFB Cup against Holstein Kiel, when their path to the quarterfinals was stopped after a 1-1 draw in a penalty shootout. The Green-Whites had already failed in the first round, but were able to focus fully on the northern derby for a whole week, which is certainly not a disadvantage.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the match between HSV and Werder Bremen, especially since the Rothosen have won all three of their Bundesliga victories in the 2025/26 season at home, while SVW have won only one of their six Bundesliga away games in the 2025/26 season (two draws, three defeats). As we expect plenty of action in the northern derby, we are therefore opting for the tip that both teams will score.