Will Benfica manage a second win in a row?
These two coaching greats will face each other for the eighth time. Before that happens on Wednesday evening, you can place your Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli bet. The hosts are under pressure and basically have to win the home game to keep their chances of advancing to the next round alive.
The Champions League season so far has been anything but according to plan for José Mourinho and Benfica Lisbon. As a result, they are in 30th place with only three points going into matchday 6. There is still a chance, but they need a win against Napoli, who have also fallen short of expectations so far.
The last time José Mourinho and Antonio Conte faced each other was in the 2018 FA Cup final, when they were on the sidelines for Manchester United and Chelsea FC. Several years have passed since then, but expectations remain high. A close game is therefore to be expected. In the Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli prediction, the hosts are seen as the favorites.
Benfica only managed to win their first game of this Champions League season on the last matchday. Napoli already have seven points, but have yet to pick up any away points.
It is clear that Benfica Lisbon must win at home against Napoli if they are to remain in contention for the next round. They have the opportunity to do so in their own stadium, but they have lost both of their home games so far.
Due to the hosts’ inconsistent performances, who are nevertheless favored in the Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli odds, there are opportunities for the visitors, who have had a better season so far. Accordingly, a draw no bet on Napoli is recommended, which can be played at Bet-at-home at odds of 2.15. In the event of a draw, the stake is returned.
A goal fest is unlikely, as the expected goals value of both teams combined is 2.40. However, there is a good chance that more goals will be scored in the second half, which can also be bet on.
Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli Prediction AI
Our artificial intelligence has also taken a look at this game and names the hosts as favorites, which is in line with the Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli betting odds. A home win is given a probability of 40%, which is certainly anything but a clear favorite.
The odds for an away win are interesting. The bookmakers see the chances of a Napoli victory at around 30-31%. The AI estimates the chances to be slightly better, putting them at 33.2%. This means that value can be found in betting on the underdog. Nevertheless, the AI tip is for a Benfica victory.
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
If it had been based solely on the results of the national league, Bruno Lage might still be the coach of Benfica Lisbon. But after the defeat at FK Qarabag Agdam, he was sacked and Mourinho took over the job. Mourinho started his coaching career here 25 years ago.
Little has changed in terms of results since then. Domestically, there have been many victories, but also draws, while internationally, the team has fallen well short of expectations. Even under Mourinho, the games against Chelsea, Newcastle, and Leverkusen were lost, but these were not easy tasks.
This made the victory on the last matchday at Ajax Amsterdam all the more important, keeping Benfica alive. Now, however, they need the next three points against Napoli, because with Juventus and Real Madrid, the remaining schedule is anything but easy.
No points at home so far
They are taking to the pitch in Portugal, but this has not brought them any points so far. Against Napoli, however, this advantage must be exploited, which is above all a task for the offense.
Samuel Dahl and Leandro Barreiro scored in the victory against Ajax, but Benfica failed to score in the three previous matches. The xG value for Wednesday is 1.29, which would mean at least one goal. However, that could be too little for the three points.
So far, there have been four goals and four different scorers. However, the offense will be the key on Wednesday, especially since Napoli are always good for a goal away from home. Accordingly, the odds for a high-scoring game are high for Benfica Lisbon against Napoli.
A win is a must, as it would theoretically allow Benfica to finish at least 24th. A draw would almost certainly mean elimination, which would of course be a bitter setback for the team and Mourinho’s ambitions.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
The Italian champions are back in the Champions League. The chances are good that their journey will not be over after the group stage. This is especially true if they manage to win in Lisbon.
However, Napoli have also fallen short of expectations so far and are in 20th place with only seven points. Without a win on Wednesday, things could get even tighter. They go into the game as underdogs.
Things are going well in the domestic league. Napoli are currently in second place, level on points with leaders Milan. They have won their last three league games, including victories over Juventus and AS Roma.
Napoli have problems away from home
It is striking that both of their defeats in the Champions League so far have been away from home. First, they lost 2-0 at Manchester City, then 6-2 at PSV Eindhoven, which was a significant setback.
This means that they have only picked up points at home so far, which will not make things any easier this Wednesday. Nevertheless, the team has shown improved performances recently, so they will be able to meet Benfica on equal terms.
Antonio Conte will have to do without a number of players, with question marks over the availability of Stanislav Lobotka, Miguel Gutiérrez, Romelu Lukaku, and Kevin De Bruyne, among others.
Napoli have scored in three of their five Champions League games so far. However, they have only scored six goals in total, which is an extremely poor record compared to the other top European teams. Therefore, the prediction for Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli favors the home team.
Benfica Lisbon – Napoli Head-to-head record
Mourinho and Conte have faced each other more often than Benfica and Napoli. The teams have had the pleasure of meeting four times so far. Two matches in 2008 in the UEFA Cup, plus two games in 2016 in the Champions League. Napoli emerged victorious three times, Benfica only once.
The record between the two coaches favors Antonio Conte, who has won four of the seven matches against José Mourinho so far. Mourinho’s teams have emerged victorious twice.
Benfica Lisbon – Napoli Tip
Playing in Lisbon is no picnic for any team. So it won’t be easy for the visitors. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to bet on a win for the visitors or at least on a draw no bet. Benfica has lost four out of five games so far.
The Neapolitans’ actual chance of winning must be considered higher than the bookmakers’ odds suggest. Therefore, there is value to be found in this tip. Draw No Bet is a 2-way bet, so in the event of a draw, the stake is returned.
However, a goal fest should not be expected, as both teams have only been moderately convincing in attack so far, but at the same time have strong defenses to offer. Napoli has kept a clean sheet twice in a row recently. So there are a few opportunities to place a bet.
