Will the Old Lady get some breathing space?
Looking at the table, the two clubs in our Juventus vs. Pafos tip are level on six points from their first five Champions League matches. However, the degree of satisfaction with this haul is likely to be completely different in both clubs.
The Italian record champions have already overcome an initial crisis in results this season and have already made a change of coach. Luciano Spalletti suffered his first defeat as Juve coach last weekend (1-2 vs. Napoli), but he can look forward to another victory for his team in the Juventus vs. Pafos prediction.
The Old Lady dominates the Juventus – Pafos betting odds. A home win is an absolute must if they are to remain in the Champions League beyond the winter break.
Under Luciano Spalletti, the Bianconeri’s form had been on a steep upward curve until their recent league defeat against Napoli (4W, 3D). Spalletti has already coached the club from the Piedmont region in two Champions League matches, collecting a respectable four points (1-1 vs. Sporting, 3-2 vs. Bodø/Glimt).
The Italian representative is still waiting for its first Champions League game in the current league phase with a clean slate. Their chances against the team from Cyprus are better than in any previous appearance in the premier class.
On average, the “light brigade” has scored less than one goal per game in this Champions League season (4 goals in 5 games).
Juventus vs. Pafos Prediction AI
We also asked our artificial intelligence for its assessment and a Juventus vs. Pafos AI prediction. Of course, Juve is also the clear favorite for AI. The AI tip does not rule out our assumption and even sees value in a bet on “Both teams to score – No.”
Juventus – Statistics & current form
The Old Lady has played two Champions League matches at its home Allianz Stadium this season. Both against Dortmund (4:4) and against Sporting Lisbon (1:1), the hosts were unable to secure more than a point.
However, according to our Juventus – Paphos tip this week, there should finally be a first celebration of a CL home win in the current season. Compared to the Cypriots (4.0 xPTS), the Italian hosts have almost twice as many expected points (7.9 xPTS).
This would put Spalletti’s team in a better position (13th) than in the real table (22nd), where the play-offs are in jeopardy. However, the form of the Italian record champions has improved. Under the 66-year-old coach, La Vecchia Signora has collected an average of 1.88 points per game (4 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat).
Waiting for the second half
The absence of Dusan Vlahovic hardly hurts the home side in our Juventus – Pafos prediction. There are plenty of other options for the attacking positions who can be expected to have a great evening. The 25-year-old was already missing on matchday five – no problem for his teammates (3-2 win vs. Bodø/Glimt).
The Turin club is not among the quick starters this season. Before the break, Spalletti’s protégés scored only one goal in five CL matches. But that also means that Juve celebrated nine goals in the second half.
You don’t have to worry about your Juventus vs. Pafos tip if the score is tied at halftime. The hosts have already racked up quite a few touches in the opponent’s penalty area (108 – 12th place in comparison) and have even taken the fifth-most shots on the opponent’s goal (40).
Pafos – Statistics & current form
Juan Carlos Carcedo and his team can be difficult to play against. The lightweight brigade has not conceded more than seven goals in the previous five Champions League rounds. The visitors’ only defeat so far came away to Munich (1-5).
Otherwise, the back line of the Cypriot champions and current league leaders has been virtually impenetrable. On the last CL matchday, Pafos shared the points with Monaco (2-2). Carcedo’s team finished the three remaining matches without conceding a goal (0-0 vs. Olympiakos, 0-0 vs. Kairat, 1-0 vs. Villarreal).
However, the Cypriots have not scored a single goal away from home. The visitors have had the most difficulty in the first half so far. Pafos have conceded six goals before the break – after the interval, they have conceded only one more.
Only visible through binoculars
While Carcedo’s team once again leads the national league competition after 13 rounds (31 points, 2 points ahead of Omonia Nicosia), the visitors are stuck in 22nd place in the Champions League. That is even flattering when compared to their expected ranking (33rd).
Seven goals conceded in five CL matches is acceptable. However, 10.6 expected goals conceded (30th) and 190 opponent touches in their own penalty area (35th) sound much more critical. In addition, only seven other Champions League participants have conceded more shots on their own goal than the Cypriot champions (31).
Most players can only see the opponent’s penalty area with the help of binoculars. No other team has had fewer touches in the opponent’s penalty area than Pafos in the current Champions League season (57).
Juventus – Pafos Head-to-head record
In the club’s history, the Old Lady has played six European matches against teams from Cyprus. Every single game ended in a victory for the Turin side. Overall, the hosts have built up an impressive record of 25:3 goals in these encounters.
Juventus – Pafos Tip
The Old Lady’s best chance to score comes immediately after the break. Juve have scored 90 percent of their CL goals in the second half – four of them between the 46th and 60th minutes. Spalletti’s team will make several visits to the opponent’s box throughout the match and apply vehement pressure.
The home side’s expected offense (9.1 xG) is one of the twelve best in the competition. In addition, only nine other Champions League participants have had more actions in the opponent’s box than the hosts (143). Only slightly more than a third of these touches were in the opponent’s penalty area (57). All of this should undoubtedly be taken into account when selecting suitable Juventus vs. Pafos odds.
Juan Carlos Carcedo’s team scored less than one expected goal per match day (4.4 xG in five Champions League games) and achieved a value of 0.10 xG per shot – below average and, especially in conjunction with the low volume of their own shots, too low.
