Will the Magpies make life difficult for the Werkself?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen has made a positive impression in the UEFA Champions League recently with two away wins at Benfica Lisbon (1-0) and Manchester City (2-0). In the Bundesliga, however, the Werkself has suffered two consecutive defeats – including a 2-0 loss to struggling FC Augsburg on Saturday. It would therefore be risky to bet on Leverkusen against Newcastle that the Rhinelanders can secure their third win in a row in the premier class.
The visitors from the northeast of England lost their last away game in the Champions League group stage 2-1 at Olympique Marseille. However, the Magpies have only conceded four goals in total, making them the third-best defense in the competition behind Arsenal (one) and Inter Milan (three). Against this backdrop, the interesting prediction for Leverkusen vs. Newcastle is that the Werkself will score a maximum of one goal against a very compact opponent, regardless of the outcome of the match.
Despite the recent defeat in Marseille, NUFC’s form is on the up again. After a weak start to the season, the Magpies have picked up ten out of a possible twelve points from their last four Premier League games, climbing back up to eleventh place. In addition to a 2-1 win over Manchester City, there was also a 2-2 draw against Tottenham. And yet Eddie Howe’s side have won only one of their last five away games in the Champions League (two draws, two defeats), which is why the odds for an away win for the Magpies at Leverkusen do not promise any value.
Leverkusen vs. Newcastle AI prediction
Where we see major risks in the three-way system from a human perspective, AI sees value in precisely this. Ultimately, the AI prediction for Leverkusen vs. Newcastle is aiming for a home win for the Werkself. The Bet365 app offers odds of 3.00 for this, which corresponds to a probability of 33.3 percent. The AI, on the other hand, calculates a 35.2 percent chance of a home win for the Rhinelanders against the Magpies, which is almost two percentage points higher and thus provides a positive expected value.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen helped crisis-stricken FC Augsburg get back on their feet in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the Rhinelanders deservedly losing 2-0. Nevertheless, Kasper Hjulmand’s team goes into this Champions League game with momentum. They have won two of their last three games against English opponents in the Champions League, including a 2-0 win at Manchester City on matchday five. That gives them a solid foundation for the game against Newcastle.
In addition, they have recorded two Champions League wins in a row without conceding a goal. The Werkself have never achieved a series of three wins without conceding a goal in this competition. Anyone wishing to speculate on this can get impressive odds of 5.75 for a home win with a clean sheet for Leverkusen against Newcastle, which we found at NEO.bet.
Leverkusen highly efficient in the Champions League
If they are to win at home, Patrik Schick’s rising form could also be decisive. The Czech struggled for a long time in the Champions League (one goal in his first 28 appearances), but has now scored two goals in a row. The only Czech player to have scored three goals in a row in the Champions League so far is Jan Koller for Borussia Dortmund in the 2002/03 season.
Leverkusen’s efficiency is also striking: With only 49 shots in total – only Ajax, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Pafos had fewer – eight of 16 shots on goal were converted, which is exactly 50 percent. If the Rhinelanders maintain this rate, they could also get something out of the game against the Premier League representatives.
Newcastle – Statistics & current form
Newcastle United may not have lost four games in a row (three wins, one draw) after a weak start to the Premier League season, but they have been waiting for a win in three European Cup games against German teams (one draw, two defeats). Both defeats came under Eddie Howe against Borussia Dortmund. Ahead of their trip to Leverkusen, the trend therefore calls for sharpness in the details.
Away from home, things have been very mixed since their return to the top flight. The Magpies have managed just one win (two draws, two defeats) from five Champions League away games. And that’s despite the NUFC taking the lead in three of those games. This included the fifth matchday in Marseille, when the final score was 1-2 and the full three points were squandered.
Newcastle usually start like a house on fire
In general, however, early momentum is a trademark of the northeast English team. Only FC Bayern have scored more often in the first 20 minutes this season than NUFC. In the last two games, they scored an early goal in each. The 1-0 in the sixth minute in Marseille was the Magpies’ second-earliest away goal in the Champions League since Shola Ameobi scored in the fifth minute in Leverkusen in 2003.
With Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon, the Magpies are the only team to have two players with more than three goals in this Champions League season. Nick Pope provides the support behind them: his save percentage of 84 percent is surpassed only by Thibaut Courtois and David Raya in the first five matchdays. This makes it particularly interesting to bet on Howe’s team scoring at the BayArena and ending their rather poor away run in the Leverkusen vs. Newcastle match.
Leverkusen – Newcastle Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 2
The two teams have met twice in international competitive matches, both of which date back to the 2002/03 Champions League. Bayer Leverkusen not only lost the first leg 3–1 to Newcastle United at home, but also suffered a 3–1 defeat in the return leg in the northeast of England.
Leverkusen – Newcastle Tip
Contrary to the AI’s assessment, our prediction for Leverkusen vs. Newcastle tends to favor the visitors, even though the Werkself has been very convincing in the Champions League recently, with strong performances against Benfica Lisbon (1-0) and Manchester City (2-0). However, the Black and Reds have shown a completely different side to themselves, especially at home. For example, they lost 7-2 to defending champions Paris Saint-Germain on matchday three. Prior to that, they only managed a 1-1 draw against PSV Eindhoven. The three-way system is therefore risky in this match.
The Magpies’ defensive compactness is also striking. Although they lost 2-1 in Marseille recently, they have conceded only two goals in total in the four matchdays of the Champions League group stage. The northeast English team’s form is also on the up in the Premier League. In our opinion, the most promising bet is therefore that Bayer 04 will score a maximum of one home goal against NUFC.
For the Werkself to score less than 1.5 goals, the betting odds for Leverkusen against Newcastle are 1.60 in the handy Betano app, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.
