How will the Magpies respond to their derby defeat?
A lost derby can quickly change the atmosphere around a club. A lost derby can also be overrated and affect the next betting decisions. You should definitely avoid the latter in the Newcastle vs. Fulham tip.
The Magpies suffered a disappointing defeat against Sunderland last weekend (0-1). Nick Woltemade was unlucky but impressive as he headed a cross powerfully into his own net. However, more meaningful than this snapshot for our Newcastle vs. Fulham prediction is a look at the expected goals (xG).
The Tyne-Wear derby contained just over 0.5 expected goals – the combined values of both teams (0.54 xG). Under the watchful eyes of 52,258 spectators at St. James Park, we expect the Toons to be stronger again, and they are also the clear favorites in the Newcastle vs. Fulham betting odds.
We have found another way to place a fabulous value bet in the EFL Cup quarterfinals. To do so, we are focusing on the home side’s defense and pointing to the rock-solid processes in Eddie Howe’s team.
Newcastle – Fulham Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
If we go into the archives and dig through the latest results in direct duels, we find a clear advantage in favor of the Magpies. Newcastle has lost only two of the twelve previous matches against Fulham (eight wins, two draws).
In addition, the statistics for the visitors’ last competitive games contain relevant information. Fulham not only exceeded the expected goals against Burnley (3-2 win at 1.37 vs. 1.95 xG). This trend also continued in the three previous games, with some extreme results (2-1 win vs. Tottenham at 0.4 vs. 2.01 xG). This overperformance will not last long.
Newcastle – Fulham Tip
There is one small piece of information we haven’t mentioned yet. Newcastle are the defending champions of the EFL Cup. Eddie Howe has refrained from excessive rotation in the two previous appearances in the current competition. As a result, Bradford City (4-1) and Tottenham (2-0) were defeated quite comfortably.
Critical voices after the recent defeat in the derby against Sunderland (0-1) are understandable given the lack of passion in the team’s attacking play, but the Toons’ season has been respectable so far. Newcastle can justifiably hope to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history and are expected to finish in the top seven in the English top flight.
In addition, they have one of the three best defenses in the Premier League in terms of xG values. Only three teams (Arsenal, Manchester City, and Chelsea) allowed fewer shots against them than Howe’s team (161) going into the last matchday.
Another factor in favor of our Newcastle vs. Fulham tip is the Magpies’ home strength. Newcastle conceded only 1.13 goals per competitive game at St. James Park, with the expected value even slightly lower. Away from home, however, the figures were slightly higher this season (1.57 goals conceded per game, 1.47 expected goals conceded per game).
