Will the Sky Blues keep their home record intact?
Although Manchester City has repeatedly rotated its squad in the EFL Cup, the Sky Blues won the EFL Cup six times between 2014 and 2021 alone. Since then, however, Guardiola’s team has been waiting for another triumph in England’s second most important cup competition. If Manchester City’s home win against Brentford goes according to plan, as expected, they will need just one more victory to qualify for the final at Wembley, which would of course also be a huge deal for the Bees.
Overall, however, the hurdle seems to be too high for the visitors from London. Not only has Brentford FC failed to win any of its last five competitive games against Manchester City (one draw, four defeats), but the Bees have also not performed particularly well away from home in the 2025/26 season. Coach Keith Andrews’s team has lost seven of its eight away games (one win), scoring just six goals on the road. Against this backdrop, there is some value to be found in betting that the Citizens will win this home game to nil despite rotation.
As our main tip suggests, we do not consider an away goal from the Bees to be very likely, so an alternative option with significantly less risk would be to bet on a cup game that is not overly high-scoring in general. With stars such as Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, and Rayan Cherki being rested, the Sky Blues’ offensive engine is unlikely to deliver its usual power, which is why betting on a maximum of three goals in the game also has a positive expected value.
Manchester City – Brentford Head-to-head record
Head to head: 13 – 2 – 7
A total of 22 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far. That is remarkably few, especially considering that the very first duel took place in January 1932 in the FA Cup. Nevertheless, the record speaks for the Citizens, who have won 13 of the 22 encounters and are currently unbeaten in five matches against Brentford FC (four wins, one draw).
Manchester City – Brentford Tip
Of course, in England, and especially in the EFL Cup, which tends to be ridiculed in the general perception, the old principle applies that the cup writes its own laws. Nevertheless, our prediction for Manchester City against Brentford is firmly in favor of the Sky Blues, who have won their last five competitive games across all competitions and now welcome an opponent that has been extremely lackluster away from home. The Bees have lost seven of their eight Premier League away games in the 2025/26 season (one win), scoring only six goals.
Given the Londoners’ poor away record, we believe it makes the most sense to take a moderate risk and bet on a Sky Blues win to nil. After all, relegation-threatened Brentford FC have a crucial away game against bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton on Saturday, so visiting coach Keith Andrews can’t really justify his first team expending too much energy in this EFL Cup away game.
For the Citizens to win without conceding a goal, Manchester City vs. Brentford betting odds of 2.30 are available at Interwetten, which we are betting on with four out of ten units.
