Will BVB bid farewell to the winter break with a home win?
For Borussia Dortmund, a thoroughly turbulent 2025 soccer year comes to an end on Friday evening. As a reminder, in the spring, BVB was in danger of missing out on European competition in the Bundesliga. However, Niko Kovac led the Black and Yellows back to success and ultimately back to the Champions League. Borussia has lost only one of its last 22 league games – 2-1 to FC Bayern in mid-October.
Although impressive performances at the national level have been few and far between recently, Kovac’s team is right on target in third place and could enjoy a peaceful winter break, especially if the home team comes out on top in the Borussia derby between Dortmund and Gladbach on the 15th matchday of the Bundesliga.
Basically, the prognosis for the Black and Yellows between Dortmund and Gladbach is also looking good. After all, BVB has won the last eleven home games against the Foals in the German top flight. Eight wins from the last ten Bundesliga home games also serve as an argument in favor of BVB. And that’s despite the fact that coach Kovac will once again be forced to reshuffle his back three at the end of the year. Ramy Bensebaini, who scored in last week’s 1-1 draw against SC Freiburg, is in the Algerian squad for the Africa Cup of Nations and will therefore be missing on Friday evening.
What has not been mentioned so far is the significantly improved form of the visitors from the Lower Rhine. Although they lost their home game against VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 last weekend due to a disastrous first half, the Foals have won three Bundesliga games in a row away from home, all of which were clean sheets.
Dortmund vs. Gladbach AI prediction
The artificial intelligence also sees the black and yellow Borussia as the favorites going into the game. This assumption is supported on the one hand by the nearly 65% probability of victory and on the other hand by the relatively one-sided xG values of 2.09 to 0.91. The AI therefore predicts a home win for BVB, but also ventures a Dortmund vs. Gladbach AI prediction of over 2.5 goals. In Asian betting, over 2.75 or over 3 could even be considered.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
At Borussia Dortmund, the atmosphere is tense once again in what should be a peaceful time before Christmas. The reason is a dressing room row that became public after last Sunday’s 1-1 draw in Freiburg. At the same time, it has been leaked that the board of directors around president Hans-Joachim Watzke is currently not entirely convinced by the leadership duo of Ricken and Kehl. In order to prevent these issues from becoming too big shortly before the upcoming winter break and, at best, to nip them in the bud, the BVB pros would be well advised to win their last competitive game in 2025.
Will BVB remain the league leaders after the first 45 minutes?
Playing at home against Borussia Mönchengladbach, the Black and Yellows are clear favorites. BVB has won eight of its last ten Bundesliga home games across all seasons. With just seven goals conceded in that period, they have the best record in Germany’s top flight! In the current season, six games at Signal Iduna Park have also yielded a respectable 14 out of a possible 18 points.
In addition to a 1X2 bet on Kovac’s team, there is also the opportunity to cash in on higher betting odds between Dortmund and Gladbach. For example, for the double result HT1/FT1, for which there is also a statistical basis.
After 14 match days, BVB are the champions of the first halves! Guirassy, Schlotterbeck and Co. have already been ahead at half-time ten times. The first two goals conceded in the first 45 minutes are even the best in the top five European leagues.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Last Saturday, the Foals’ five-game unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga came to an end with the aforementioned 1-3 home defeat to VfL Wolfsburg. During this positive run, coach Eugen Polanski’s team picked up 13 out of a possible 15 points, lifting themselves out of the relegation zone. Borussia Mönchengladbach are currently in eleventh place, although their 16 points total is their lowest since 2010/11.
Will Gladbach win away from home for the fourth time in a row?
On a positive note, however, the team from the Lower Rhine has recently been particularly impressive away from home. Three away wins in the Bundesliga will give them a lot of confidence for the upcoming task at Signal Iduna Park. This is particularly true given that Moritz Nicolas has kept three clean sheets in a row. With only five goals conceded in away games, Gladbach even have the second-best away defense in the league.
This is one of the reasons why I think it’s worth taking a closer look at the odds for under goals between Dortmund and Gladbach.
The continuing personnel situation in Gladbach’s offense also suggests that there will be few goals in the game. With Honorat, Hack, Machino, and Kleindienst, many important players are unavailable. Against the usually stable BVB defense, it could therefore be difficult for Polanski’s team to create many scoring chances.
Dortmund – Gladbach Head-to-head record / H2H balance
In this millennium, there has been no other opponent that Borussia Dortmund has defeated more often at home than Gladbach. BVB has won 21 of 23 Bundesliga home games (one draw, one defeat). Currently, the Black and Yellows have even won eleven Bundesliga home games in a row against the Foals.
Five times in a row, Borussia scored at least three goals. This time, however, I would refrain from predicting a particularly high-scoring Friday evening between Dortmund and Gladbach.
Dortmund – Gladbach Tip
The last Bundesliga matchday before Christmas kicks off on Friday evening with the traditional Borussia derby. In recent years, however, this has clearly been in the hands of the Black and Yellows. Eleven Bundesliga home wins in a row and 21 wins in the last 23 Bundesliga home games against the Foals clearly tip the scales in favor of BVB. The recent home form, with eight wins from ten Bundesliga home games, also supports the favorite status of Kovac’s team, who want to extinguish the distractions off the pitch with three points.
I have no doubt that they will succeed, and before the Dortmund vs. Gladbach duel, I am even inclined to tip a double result HT1/FT1. After all, Schlotterbeck and Co. have conceded only two goals in 14 first halves and have been ahead at the break ten times – both of which are the best records in Germany and, in some cases, even internationally. Despite Gladbach’s recent strong performances away from home, I’m risking four fictitious units on the 1.94 odds for a start-to-finish victory for the favorites.
